中国宣布关闭象牙市场能拯救大象吗？

NAIROBI, Kenya — In the past 10 years, tens of thousands of elephants have been slaughtered across Africa to feed China’s insatiable appetite for ivory. Entire herds from Gabon to Tanzania have disappeared. Even baby elephants have been killed for their tiny stubs of ivory. Scientists have said that the very survival of the species is in China’s hands.

肯尼亚内罗毕——在过去的10年中，为了满足中国对象牙不知餍足的胃口，非洲有数以万计的大象遭到屠杀。从加蓬到坦桑尼亚，象群消失了。即使是幼象也因为刚刚冒头的小象牙而遭到杀害。科学家们说，这个物种的生存前景掌握在中国的手中。

On Friday, after years of denying that China was part of the problem, the Chinese government made a stunning announcement: It would shut down the country’s ivory market, the world’s largest.

中国多年来一直否认自己是这个问题的一部分，但上周五，中国政府发表了一则出人意料的声明：它将关闭该国的象牙市场。那是世界上最大的象牙市场。

Will this save the elephants? This is what experts on the plight of elephants say:

这能拯救大象吗?深谙大象所处困境的专家表示：

— It all depends on the price. If China simply shuts down its legal ivory trade but does little to combat the much bigger illegal trade, then the price of ivory (now about $500 per pound) will stay high, giving poachers an incentive to keep killing.

——这完全取决于价格。如果中国仅仅是关停其合法的象牙贸易，在打击规模更大的黑市方面没有什么作为的话，那么象牙价格(现在每磅约500美元)将继续保持在高位，偷猎者仍然有继续猎杀大象的动机。

— Making all ivory illegal in China could push the price up, like illegal drugs.

——宣布中国境内所有象牙非法可能会推高价格，就像非法药物一样。

— Neighboring markets will be crucial. If Vietnam, Myanmar, the Philippines and others do not take similar steps, then many Chinese will buy their ivory from other places, which will keep demand high.

——邻国市场将变得至关重要。如果越南、缅甸、菲律宾和其他国家不采取类似的举措，届时将有很多中国人从其他地方购买象牙，这会维持需求的高企。

— African elephants face other threats, including habitat destruction and increasingly deadly contacts with humans. In Kenya, a truck speeding down a highway recently rammed into an elephant and killed it.

——非洲大象还面临着其他威胁，包括栖息地遭到破坏，以及与人类的接触越来越致命。最近，肯尼亚一辆在公路上疾驰的卡车撞死了一头大象。

— Many elephants are also hunted for bush meat. China’s new policy will not affect that.

——还有很多大象是因为有人想吃野味而被猎杀。中国的新政策影响不到这个方面。

— If the Chinese government commits to combating the ivory trade, then the price of ivory could collapse. Criminal organizations and poachers will then abandon the business, and Africa’s elephant herds could recover for the first time in years.

——如果中国政府致力于打击象牙交易，那么象牙价格可能会暴跌。犯罪组织和偷猎者就会放弃这项生意，非洲象群的数量可能会迎来多年来的首次回升。

Wildlife researchers estimate that 50 to 70 percent of all smuggled elephant ivory — maybe even more — ends up in China, where there are countless ivory workshops and showrooms, many perfectly legal.

野生动物研究人员估计，在所有走私象牙中，最终流向中国的占50%到70%，甚或更多。中国有不计其数的象牙工厂和展厅，其中很多完全合法。

In China now, large pieces of legal ivory come with documents certifying that the ivory was acquired before the 1989 worldwide ban on the commercial ivory trade or that it came from one of the authorized sales since then, when a few African countries were allowed to sell from their stockpiles.

在中国，现在很多大件的合法象牙都附有相关文件，证明象牙购买于1989年那项叫停商业象牙贸易的禁令颁布之前，或是购自那之后的授权销售途径。那项全球性禁令颁布后，一些非洲国家获准销售自己的库存。

But many wildlife experts say this system is a farce. The ivory papers can be easily forged, and often the ivory in public shops is smuggled ivory from recently killed elephants that has been illegally imported and fraudulently labeled.

但很多野生动物专家表示，这一制度纯属闹剧。象牙文件造假容易，对外开放的店铺里摆放的象牙，往往是取自刚刚被猎杀的大象的走私象牙。它们被非法进口，并被贴上假标签。

Iain Douglas-Hamilton, one of the world’s most renowned elephant researchers, said that up until a few years ago, Chinese officials denied that their country was a part of the ivory problem.

伊恩·道格拉斯-汉密尔顿(Iain Douglas-Hamilton)是全球最著名的大象研究人员之一。他说，直到几年前，中国官方还否认中国是象牙问题的一部分。

“It was a topic you couldn’t bring up with them,” Douglas-Hamilton said.

“那时候，你不能和他们提起这个话题，”道格拉斯-汉密尔顿说。

But over the years, he said, China has grown embarrassed by the criticism it has received around the world for its appetite for ivory. Wildlife groups, the U.S. government, African governments and international movie stars have harangued China to say no to ivory.

但他说，这些年来，中国因对象牙的需求而受到全世界的指责，并因此感到尴尬。野生动物团体、美国政府、非洲政府和国际影星纷纷敦促中国对象牙说不。

“China has come through an extraordinary evolution,” Douglas-Hamilton said.

“中国经历了一场非凡的演变，”道格拉斯-汉密尔顿说。

China says it will shut down its ivory trade by the end of the year. It says it will start by closing the legal ivory processing factories.

中国表示将在年底之前取缔象牙贸易，并且将从关停合法的象牙加工厂开始。

But will this drive the trade underground? For instance, it is forbidden in China to traffic in tiger parts.

但此举会不会促使该贸易转向地下?比如，中国是禁止交易老虎的身体部位的。

But there is still a thriving underground trade in tiger bones, used to make very expensive wines cherished for their supposed medicinal powers.

但虎骨的地下贸易依然颇为繁荣。因被认为具有药用价值，虎骨被视为珍宝并被用来制成非常昂贵的酒。

Some consumers seem to get an additional thrill from knowing tiger-bone wine is highly illegal.

一些消费者似乎会因为虎骨酒严重违法而感到更加刺激。

Karl Ammann, a documentary filmmaker and independent wildlife investigator in Kenya, said he was worried that something like this could happen to ivory.

肯尼亚纪录片制作人、独立野生动物调查人士卡尔·安曼(Karl Ammann)称，他担心类似的情况会发生在象牙身上。

Ivory’s value as a status symbol could increase, he said, if ivory is seen as a statement of being above the law.

他说，如果象牙被视作凌驾于法律之上的证明，其作为身份地位象征的价值可能会增加。

“If it’s illegal, that might make it even more attractive,” he said.

“如果是非法的，这甚至可能会让它变得更有吸引力，”他说。

Ammann also said many ivory-carving factories had moved to Vietnam. On a recent trip to Hanoi, Vietnam’s capital, he said, he visited an ivory workshop that used a computerized machine that carved five ivory pieces at once.

安曼还表示，不少象牙雕刻厂已转移至越南。他说，最近去越南首都河内时，他参观了一家象牙厂。该厂用的是一台用电脑控制的机器，一次能够雕刻五件象牙制品。

The reaction among many wildlife experts in Africa can be summed up in one word: cautious.

非洲很多野生动物专家的反应可以用一个词来概括：谨慎。

“Assuming they are able to break the market, for us it does offer a bit of light at the end of a very dark tunnel,” said Emmanuel de Merode, director of Virunga National Park in Congo.

“假设他们能够打破市场，对我们来说，这的确是在一条非常黑暗的隧道尽头提供了一点亮光，”刚果维龙加国家公园(Virunga National Park)园长埃曼努埃尔·德梅罗德(Emmanuel de Merode)说。

But he quickly added: “Ivory can be stockpiled. Some people may think it’s worth trying to get more ivory in case the market opens one day.”

但他很快又补充说：“象牙可能会被囤积起来。一些人也许会认为，不妨试试弄到更多象牙，说不定有一天市场又开放了呢。”

That could mean an increase in poaching before China’s ban takes effect.

这可能意味着在中国的禁令生效前，偷猎现象会增加。

Paula Kahumbu, chief executive of WildlifeDirect, a conservation group in Kenya, said she was “suspicious” about China’s motives and its commitment to fight the ivory trade.

肯尼亚保护组织野生动物信息(WildlifeDirect)的执行主任保拉·卡乎姆卜(Paula Kahumbu)说，她对中国的动机和打击象牙贸易的承诺“感到怀疑”。

“China needs Africa right now,” she said. “I think they’re just buying good will.”

“中国现在需要非洲，”她说。“我觉得他们只是在换取善意。”

Kahumbu cited several Chinese infrastructure projects that had caused problems for Kenya’s wildlife.

卡乎姆卜列举了中国的几个基础设施项目作为例子。它们给肯尼亚的野生动植物带来了麻烦。

When it comes to Africa, she said, China does not have “an environmental bone” in its body.

在非洲的问题上，她说，中国的身体里没有长“环保的骨头”。