让非洲人移民亚洲？
目前可能还没有人支持这种看法，但最近来自国际货币基金组织(IMF)的两份报告显示，新兴世界很多经济问题的一个可能解决方案是：大量人口从非洲移民到亚洲。
The fund’s latest Asia Pacific regional economic outlook, released this month, warned that the continent was in danger of growing old before it becomes rich because of plunging birth rates. This threatens to leave it in far worse shape than the developed world, which at least became wealthy before the wrinkles set in.
IMF本月公布的最新《亚太地区经济展望》警告称，由于生育率大幅下滑，亚太地区可能会“未富先老”。这可能会让该地区的状况远远不及发达国家，至少后者在变老之前变得富有了。
In sharp contrast, a study of Africa, released in April, concluded that a key reason why the continent has been unable to copy Asia’s rise out of poverty is its “sluggish pace of demographic transition,” ie that its birth rate remains far too high.
与此形成鲜明对比的是，4月发布的一项有关非洲的研究报告总结称，非洲大陆无法复制亚洲脱贫过程的关键原因，是其“人口特征转变的缓慢速度”，即出生率仍然过高。
In theory, one simple solution that would help alleviate both problems would be a large-scale shift of younger people eastward, even if the complexities and difficulties associated with such an endeavour make it virtually impossible to envisage.
从理论上来说，帮助一举缓解这两个问题的一个简单的解决方案是，让较年轻人口大规模向东移民，不过与此相关的复杂性和难度让这种做法几乎无法想象。
Fears over the impact of rapid ageing in Asia, particularly its eastern extremes, are not new.
有人担心亚洲(尤其是东亚)人口快速老龄化可能产生的影响，这种担忧并不新鲜。
A year ago Bank of America Merrill Lynch estimated that 80 per cent of the world’s elderly will live in emerging markets, primarily in Asia, by 2050. The developing world is not just following the path trodden by the developed one, it is doing so at a dramatically faster pace, as the first chart shows.
一年前，美银美林(Bank of America Merrill Lynch)估计，到2050年，全球80%的老年人将生活在新兴市场，主要是亚洲。正如第一张图表所显示的那样，发展中国家不仅在重走发达国家的老路，而且速度显著加快。
In February of this year, projections by Standard Chartered suggested that, by 2050, the likes of South Korea, Singapore, Thailand and China would have a higher share of pensioners in their population than most developed countries, depicted in the second chart.
今年2月，渣打银行(Standard Chartered)的预测显示，到2050年，韩国、新加坡、泰国和中国等国领退休金的人口比例将高于多数发达国家，如第二张图表所示。
The latest analysis by the IMF points to the likelihood that Asian countries will be far poorer than developed ones when their working-age populations peak as a share of the total population. Indeed, in some countries such as China, Thailand, Vietnam and South Korea, this is not a prediction: it has already happened.
IMF的最新分析指出，亚洲国家在工作年龄人口占总人口比例见顶时的富裕程度，可能会远远不及发达国家。实际上，在中国、泰国、越南和韩国等一些国家，这已不是预测，而是已变成事实。
According to the Fund’s calculations, when the share of their working-age populations peaked, Australia, Japan, Germany, Italy, Canada, France and the UK all had per capita income of at least 70 per cent of the level the US had at the same point, measured in terms of purchasing power parity. These peaks were reached between 1950 and 2009.
根据IMF的计算，以购买力平价计，在工作年龄人口所占比例见顶时，澳大利亚、日本、德国、意大利、加拿大、法国和英国的人均收入都至少达到了美国相同阶段的70%。这些国家的工作年龄人口占比是在1950年至2009年之间见顶的。
China’s working-age population peaked 2011 but its per capita income was just 20.7 per cent of the US level. Thailand was a little wealthier, at 28.9 per cent, when its working-age share peaked in 2013, but Vietnam was far poorer still, at 10.4 per cent of the US level, when it reached the same point a year later.
2011年，中国的工作年龄人口占比见顶，但人均收入仅为美国相同阶段的20.7%。泰国富有一些，该国在工作年龄人口占比于2013年见顶时，人均收入为美国相同阶段的28.9%，但越南更为贫穷，在2014年工作年龄人口占比见顶时，其人均收入为美国相同阶段的10.4%。
Malaysia, Indonesia, India and the Philippines are projected to be somewhat better off when they reach peak working-age share, probably between 2020 and 2056, but still some way below the income levels reached in the west, as the third chart shows.
根据预测，马来西亚、印尼、印度和菲律宾在工作年龄人口占比见顶时(可能在2020年至2056年间)，收入状况将较好，但仍低于西方达到的水平，如第三张图表所示。
“Adapting to ageing could be especially challenging for Asia, as populations living at relatively low per capita income levels in many parts of the region are rapidly becoming old.”
“亚洲很多地区拥有相对较低人均收入的人群迅速步入老龄，适应人口老龄化对亚洲而言可能格外具有挑战性。”
The IMF forecasts that population growth, already modestly negative in Japan, will fall to zero Asia-wide by 2050, as fertility rates, currently 1.98 children per woman, fall to 1.83 and rises in life expectancy slow, as indicated in the fourth chart.
IMF预测，到2050年，整个亚洲地区的人口增速将降至零(日本已变成温和负值)，生育率将降至1.83(目前为每个女性生育1.98个孩子)，预期寿命延长速度将放缓，如第四张图表所示。
“In a global context, Asia is shifting from being the biggest contributor to the global working-age population to subtracting hundreds of millions of people from it,” Mr Salgado added.
IMF亚太部门主管拉尼尔•萨尔加多(Ranil Salgado)补充称：“从全球来看，亚洲正从全球工作年龄人口最大贡献者变成导致全球劳动年龄人口减少数亿人。”
“In past decades, Asia has benefited significantly from demographic trends. Many parts of Asia, particularly East Asia, reaped a ‘demographic dividend’ as the number of workers grew faster than the number of dependants, providing a strong tailwind for growth. This dividend is about to end for many Asian economies,” wrote Ranil Salgado, division chief of the IMF’s Asia and Pacific department.
萨尔加多写道：“过去几十年，亚洲大大受益于人口特征趋势。亚洲很多地区(特别是东亚)收获了“人口红利”，因劳动者数量增速超过受抚养者数量增速，有力地推动了经济增长。对于亚洲很多经济体而言，这种人口红利即将终结。”
There are caveats here. The analysis is based on 13 Asia Pacific countries and excludes some with very high birth rates such as Afghanistan, Pakistan, Cambodia and Laos, as well as the Middle East which, at one point at least, was considered part of Asia. Moreover, forecasts for global population growth have tended to be revised upwards, rather than downwards, in recent years.
一些问题值得注意。这份分析基于13个亚太国家，不包括一些生育率非常高的国家，例如阿富汗、巴基斯坦、柬埔寨和老挝以及中东国家，中东至少有一度曾被视为亚洲的一部分。另外，最近几年，全球人口增速预测往往被上调，而不是下修。
Nevertheless, the IMF is convinced these demographic developments will lead to lower economic growth for most of the countries it has studied.
然而，IMF相信，这些人口特征动向将导致该组织研究的多数国家的经济增速放缓。
Between 2020 and 2050 it forecasts that, in the absence of migration, growth in gross domestic product per capita in Hong Kong will be reduced by 1.2 percentage points a year by demographics. It sees comparable reductions of 0.69 percentage points in South Korea, 0.65 points in Singapore, 0.64 points in China. 0.51 in Japan and 0.41 in Thailand, as the fifth chart shows.
IMF预测，从2020年至2050年，在没有移民的情况下，人口特征将让香港的人均GDP年增速下滑1.2个百分点。IMF预计，韩国、新加坡和中国的这个数字将分别为0.69、0.65和0.64个百分点。日本和泰国分别为0.51和0.41个百分点，如第5张图表所示。
The IMF argues that migration can soften these shortfalls, however. Factoring in UN forecasts for future migration, it calculates that the reduction in GDP growth per capita falls to 0.94 percentage points in Hong Kong and 0.55 points in Singapore, with smaller reductions elsewhere (but a small increase in China, which is expected to be a net exporter of people).
IMF认为，移民可能会缓解这些滑坡。如果把联合国对未来移民的预测计算在内，IMF估计，香港和新加坡的人均GDP增速降幅将分别缩小至0.94和0.55个百分点，其他地区的增速降幅缩小幅度较小(但中国的增速降幅将略有增加，预计该国将成为人口净流出国。)
In the unlikely event that East Asian countries were to choose to pep up their growth rates by opening their doors to mass migration, a different team at the IMF may be able to suggest just where to look.
这种情况不太可能出现：东亚国家选择向大规模移民敞开大门，以推动经济增长。但如果这种不太可能的情况真的发生，那么IMF的另一个团队或许能够指出应该从哪里引进移民。
The Fund’s Africa department fears that the continent will struggle to follow the development path blazed by Asia because its birth rate remains far too high.
IMF的非洲部门担心，非洲将难以仿效亚洲走过的道路，因为非洲的出生率仍然过高。
In the document, Structural Transformation in Employment and Productivity: What Can Africa Hope For?, the fund concludes that “sub-Saharan Africa will not be able to transform through manufacturing as East Asia did over the past two decades”.
IMF在《就业和生产率的结构性转变：非洲能期待什么?》(Structural Transformation in Employment and Productivity: What Can Africa Hope For?)中总结称，“非洲撒哈拉以南地区将无法像东亚国家在过去20年所做的那样，通过制造业实现转变”。
The analysis says that when Asia’s manufacturing boom took off, drawing workers to highly productive industries, “the share of employment in the lowest-productivity sectors [primarily agriculture] declined rapidly because of low labour force growth”.
分析称，在亚洲制造业热潮兴起(吸引劳动者到高生产率行业)时，“由于劳动力增速较低，生产率最低行业(主要是农业)吸纳的就业比例大幅下滑”。
However, the picture is somewhat different in Africa. While East Asia’s labour force grew by 1.2 per cent a year between 2000 and 2010, and that of South Asia by 1.7 per cent, in sub-Saharan Africa it rose by 2.6 per cent a year.
然而，非洲的情况有些不同。2000年至2010年，东亚劳动力年增速达1.2%，南亚是1.7%，非洲撒哈拉以南地区为2.6%。
With a median age of 18 in SSA, seven years younger than in South Asia, the next youngest region, “the number of youths entering Africa’s working-age population will be rising for years to come”, the IMF says, with the labour force expected to swell by 200m between 2005 and 2020.
非洲撒哈拉以南地区的年龄中值为18岁，比第二年轻的南亚小7岁。IMF表示，“非洲进入工作年龄人口的年轻人数量，将在未来数年持续增加。”预计从2005年至2020年，劳动力数量将增加2亿。
The fund says that this lack of demographic transition means that even if the continent was to see a boom in private sector growth as rapid and labour intensive as that of East Asia over the past 20 years, “a similar employment transition could not occur”, as the number of people engaged in areas such as subsistence agriculture would be unlikely to fall.
IMF表示，人口特征没有转变意味着，即便非洲即将出现东亚过去20年那样快速且劳动力密集型的私营部门增长热潮，“类似的就业转变也不可能出现”，因为在仅能糊口的农业等行业工作的人口不太可能减少。
“Enterprises would not be able to absorb the same share of the labour force because the labour force would be too big,” it gloomily concludes.
IMF悲观地总结称：“企业将无法吸纳同样比例的劳动力，因为劳动力太多了。”
