电动车危及文莱“石油梦”

The energy-rich sultanate of Brunei in Southeast Asia hopes to double oil and gas production over the coming decades but faces hurdles that include falling commercial viability, maritime boundary disputes and Opec-imposed output limits.

拥有丰富能源资源的东南亚国家文莱希望石油和天然气产量在今后几十年翻倍，但面临诸多障碍，包括商业可行性下降、海洋边界纠纷以及欧佩克(OPEC)的限产决定。

Energy production in the tiny enclave on the island of Borneo has the potential to climb as high as 800,000 barrels of oil and gas equivalent a day as new geological surveys, extraction techniques and pipeline routes unleash growing reserves, a top official has said.

一位高官表示，随着新的地质勘查、开采技术以及管线布局释放越来越多的储量，这个地处婆罗洲岛(译者注：即加里曼丹岛)的小国的能源产量有潜力达到80万桶油气当量/日。

But the plunge in international crude prices has thrown Brunei’s plans into doubt, and highlighted how lower market rates threaten to leave some oil-dependent countries with “stranded assets” deemed uneconomic to exploit.

但国际原油价格暴跌让文莱的增产计划打上了问号，而且突显出市场下行是如何对一些依赖石油的国家构成威胁，使它们有可能背负“搁浅资产”(开采这些资产在经济上不划算)的。

Mohammad Yasmin Umar, energy minister, told the Financial Times that Brunei’s energy production could rise from 400,000 barrels of oil and gas equivalent today beyond the previously projected 600,000-plus by 2035 to as high as 800,000.

文莱能源大臣穆罕默德•亚斯明•乌马尔(Mohammad Yasmin Umar)向英国《金融时报》表示，到2035年，该国能源产量可能从当前的40万桶油气当量/日提升至80万桶油气当量/日，超出之前预估的逾60万桶。

But he acknowledged this aim could be jeopardised by the world oil price depression and by possible longer-term trends such as the electric car’s “takeover” from combustion-powered vehicles in rich countries.

但他承认，全球油价低迷，以及富裕国家电动汽车取代内燃机汽车等潜在的较长期趋势，可能危及这个目标。

“We have to do something with the oil that we have,” the former naval officer said, adding: “It will be interesting.”

这位前海军军官表示：“我们不得不对自己拥有的石油做点什么，这将会很有意思。”

Brunei’s energy production prospects were “very good” because the latest seismic techniques were revealing both new reserves and extra deposits in existing fields, the minister said. Pipeline network improvements would also make production from some known fields commercially viable for the first time, he added.

乌马尔表示，文莱的能源生产前景“非常好”，因为最新的地震勘探技术既发现了新的储量，也在现有油气田发现了额外的油气层。他补充说，管道网络改善也将首次让一些已知油气田的开采具备商业可行性。

He stressed that future production increases would be permitted only if companies replaced any tapped deposits with fresh reserves. “The oil operators know that,” said Mr Umar. “This one we don’t negotiate — or the future generations will curse me.”

他强调称，未来增产只会在企业能够用新发现的储量来替换已开采储量的情况下批准。乌马尔表示，“油田作业方知道这一点。在这件事情上没得商量，不然子孙后代会诅咒我”。

A fall of more than half in the benchmark Brent crude oil price since June 2014 has hurt Brunei’s energy-dependent economy. The sultanate’s annual gross domestic product dropped more than a quarter in total in 2015 and 2016, according to the International Monetary Fund, although it predicts a partial rebound this year. Average prices achieved by Brunei for both oil and gas more than halved over the same two-year period.

自2014年6月以来，国际基准布伦特油价下跌逾50%，打击了文莱的能源依赖型经济。国际货币基金组织(IMF)的数据显示，文莱的年度GDP在2015年和2016年总计下滑了逾25%，尽管该组织预计今年将出现一定程度的反弹。在这两年期间，文莱获得的石油和天然气均价下跌了逾50%。

Brunei Shell Petroleum Company, a 50-50 partnership between the government and Royal Dutch Shell, has been the dominant energy producer since the British imperial era and accounts for about 90 per cent of the sultanate’s oil and gas revenues. It did not respond to a request for comment on the minister’s remarks.

自大英帝国时代以来，文莱政府和荷兰皇家壳牌(Royal Dutch Shell)对半持股的文莱壳牌石油公司(Brunei Shell Petroleum Company)一直是该国占据主导地位的能源生产商，为文莱贡献了约90%的石油和天然气收入。该公司未回应记者提出的对能源大臣言论置评的请求。

Mr Umar played down concerns about China’s territorial ambitions, which include claims to offshore areas where Brunei’s oil industry operates. An international court in The Hague last year rejected China’s claims to most of the South China Sea, but Beijing has dismissed the ruling and continued to build its military presence in other disputed parts of the region.

乌马尔淡化了有关中国领土野心的担忧——中国的领土主张与文莱石油行业作业的海域部分重叠。海牙一家国际仲裁庭去年驳回了中国对几乎整个南中国海的领土主张，但北京方面认为这项裁决无效，并继续在南海争议地点构建军事存在。

Repsol of Spain said this month that it had suspended drilling in a South China Sea oil block licensed by Vietnam but located within the boundary of China’s territorial claim, known as the nine-dash line. China had called for an end to the exploration work.

西班牙石油公司雷普索尔(Repsol)本月表示，其已暂停在一个南海油田区块的钻探活动——该区块由越南授权，但落在中国主张的“九段线”范围内。此前中国曾呼吁停止勘探工作。

Mr Umar said Brunei had always been on good terms with its neighbours, including China. Companies from China are active in port, petrochemicals and bridge-building projects in the sultanate.

乌马尔表示，文莱始终与包括中国在内的邻国保持良好关系。中资企业活跃于文莱的港口、石化和桥梁建设项目。

A further potential constraint on Brunei’s energy ambitions is the production curb imposed by the Opec oil cartel to prop up prices. While the sultanate is not an Opec member, it has agreed to honour the group’s limits until at least the end of the first quarter of next year.

欧佩克旨在提升油价的限产措施，潜在将进一步制约文莱的能源抱负。虽然文莱并非欧佩克成员国，但它已同意至少在明年第一季度结束前遵守欧佩克的限产决定。

Brunei has a policy to lessen its economic dependence on energy exports, but Mr Umar admitted efforts were in their early stages. Oil and gas still provide well over half of annual GDP, having accounted for almost two-thirds before the world market price falls.

文莱出台了降低经济对能源出口依赖度的政策，但乌马尔承认这些努力还处于早期阶段。石油和天然气仍为文莱贡献一半以上的年度GDP，而在油价下跌前这一比例接近三分之二。