伊朗前总统拉夫桑贾尼逝世

Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, who has died aged 82, was one of the leaders of the Islamic Republic of Iran and a shrewd politician whom many Iranians saw as both a blessing and a curse for their country.

伊朗伊斯兰共和国领导人之一阿克巴尔•哈什米•拉夫桑贾尼(Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani)逝世，享年82岁。在许多伊朗人眼中，这位精明的政治人物对伊朗来说既是一个福音、也是一个诅咒。

At home, he was seen as Iran’s saviour at critical times, as when he pushed for a nuclear deal with major powers in 2015 to help prevent a war, yet ruthless at others, such as when he failed to prevent the mass execution of dissidents in the 1980s.

在伊朗国内，他被视为危急时刻国家的拯救者，比如他曾推动与几大强国在2015年达成一项核协议，帮助避免了一场战争;在另一些时刻，他又被视为一个无情的人，比如他未能阻止上世纪80年代对异见人士的大规模处决。

Rafsanjani’s death came as a shock to Iranians and is expected by many analysts to have big implications for an Islamic establishment whose first generation is aging and dying. The loss of such a heavyweight may further intensify the power struggle between reformers who argue that pro-democracy changes are essential for the regime’s survival and hardliners who resist opening up the country.

拉夫桑贾尼的逝世是对伊朗人的一次冲击。许多分析人士预计，他的逝世会对伊斯兰建制派产生巨大影响，这个阵营中的第一代人正逐渐老去、离开这个世界。损失一位如此重量级的人物，可能会进一步激化改革派与强硬派之间的权力斗争。改革派主张，亲民主的改革对政权的存续至关重要，强硬派则反对伊朗的开放。

“This is like a major quake to the political establishment,” said one reform-minded politician. “His death will shake the regime’s balance at a sensitive time.”

一名具有改革意识的政治人士表示：“这就像政治建制派遭遇了一场大地震。在这个敏感时刻，他的逝世将撼动政权的均势。”

Rafsanjani was a balancing figure who believed Iran’s political establishment would be at risk if it fell into the extremes offered by hardliners and reformists alike.

拉夫桑贾尼是一位平衡人物，他相信，伊朗若被强硬派倡导的极端路线左右，伊朗的政治建制派会面临风险，若被改革派倡导的极端路线左右，后果也大致相同。

Reformers had enjoyed his support in recent years, helping to tilt the balance of power towards more moderate forces who managed to win the presidential poll in 2013 — with the victory of Hassan Rouhani, a centrist — and parliamentary elections last year.

最近几年，改革派得到了他的支持，力量的天平因此倾向较温和势力一边，这股势力在2013年赢了伊朗总统选举(中间派人士哈桑•鲁哈尼(Hassan Rouhani)当选为总统)，在去年赢了议会选举。

He also kept his traditional connections with the clergy in the holy city of Qom and with conservative forces within the political establishment, which made it difficult for hardliners to form a strong front against moderate forces.

此外，他还保持着与圣城库姆(Qom)神职人员以及与政治建制派中保守势力的传统联系，这使得强硬派难以组建反温和派势力的强大阵线。

But the most important ramification of his death comes at a time Iran’s politicians are quietly thinking of the eventual succession to Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the supreme leader and ultimate decision maker, who is 77. Although older, many Iranians were assuming that Rafsanjani — who had enjoyed good health — would be alive to help prevent the top leadership falling into the hands of hardliners. Rafsanjani, as a pillar of the revolution in 1979, had tense relations with Mr Khamenei, a key figure in founding the Islamic establishment, over Iran’s political and economic direction.

不过，拉夫桑贾尼逝世造成的最重大影响，关乎伊朗最高领导人和最终决策者、77岁的阿亚图拉阿里•哈梅内伊(Ayatollah Ali Khamenei)的接班人问题。伊朗政治人士眼下正暗暗思考最终由谁来接哈梅内伊的班。尽管拉夫桑贾尼的年龄比哈梅内伊大，可许多伊朗人认为，身体一直很棒的拉夫桑贾尼会活到哈梅内伊离世之后，帮助避免让伊朗的最高领导权落入强硬派之手。拉夫桑贾尼是1979年革命的柱石之一，哈梅内伊则是创立伊斯兰建制派的关键人物之一，两人在伊朗的政治经济方向问题上关系紧张。

Rafsanjani advocated pragmatism at home, pushing for an open market economy, and promoted a foreign policy in which the US would no longer be seen as an arch-enemy. Mr Khamenei, however, still rejects any moves towards a normalisation of ties with the US and believes Iran does not need to follow western-style economic development.

拉夫桑贾尼在国内提倡实用主义，推动建设开放的市场经济，支持不再将美国视为头号敌人的外交政策。而哈梅内伊仍然拒绝任何伊美关系正常化的举措，认为伊朗无需遵循西方式的经济发展道路。