金正恩长兄金正男在马来西亚遇袭身亡

Kim Jong Nam, the estranged older half-brother of Kim Jong Un, North Korea’s leader, was killed in an attack at Kuala Lumpur airport, Malaysian police confirmed on Tuesday, in an apparent assassination.

马来西亚警方周二证实，朝鲜领导人金正恩(Kim Jong Un)关系疏远的同父异母长兄金正男(Kim Jong Nam)在马来西亚吉隆坡机场遇袭身亡。这是一起明显的暗杀。

The 46-year-old was assaulted by a woman who covered his face with a cloth laced with liquid as he was waiting for a flight to Macau, said Fadzil Ahmat, a Malaysian police official. He was confirmed dead after being taken to hospital.

马来西亚警方官员法兹•阿赫玛特(Fadzil Ahmat)表示，46岁的受害人在等候飞往澳门的航班时，被一名女子用一块沾满液体的布蒙住面部。他被送往医院后证实死亡。

Kim was once considered an heir to the late Kim Jong Il, North Korea’s former leader, but his fortunes turned after he was arrested at Tokyo airport with a fake passport in 2001. He was apparently en route to Disneyland in Tokyo.

金正男一度被认为是已故的朝鲜前领导人金正日(Kim Jong Il)的接班人，但2001年在东京机场因持有假护照被捕后，他的命运开始走下坡路。当时他显然是要去东京的迪斯尼乐园。

Since rising to power following the death of his father in 2011, Kim Jong Un has moved ruthlessly to cement his standing as North Korea’s supreme leader. His uncle, Jang Sung Taek, was in 2013 purged from the ruling Workers’ Party of Korea. North Korean state media later reported he was executed.

自2011年父亲去世后开始掌权以来，金正恩一直无情地巩固自己作为朝鲜最高领袖的地位。2013年，他的姑父张成泽(Jang Sung Taek)被执政的朝鲜劳动党开除党籍。据朝鲜官方媒体后来报道，他已被处决。

If Pyongyang were proved to have orchestrated Kim’s death, “it means Kim Jong Un has absolute control over every nook and cranny of the North Korean system”, said Youngshik Bong, an authority on North Korea at Yonsei University in Seoul. “This is the final touch in consolidating power . . . there are no other checks and balances.”

如果平壤方面被证明策划了金正男之死，“就说明金正恩对朝鲜体制的每个角落都拥有绝对控制”，首尔延世大学(Yonsei University)的朝鲜专家奉英植(Bong Young-shik)表示。“这是巩固权力的最后一步……没有任何其他制衡。”

But he said the development could mean the North Korean leader had now demonstrated his power, allowing him the latitude to strike a deal with US President Donald Trump without appearing weak.

但他表示，这一事态可能意味着朝鲜领导人已经展现出他的力量，这将让他具有回旋余地，能够与美国总统唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)达成协议，而不会显得软弱。

Pyongyang set off alarm bells on Sunday when it test fired a medium-range ballistic missile for the first time since Mr Trump’s inauguration in what observers saw as a calculated move to test the US leader.

平壤方面在周日试射一枚中程弹道导弹，这是其在特朗普就职以来首次试射弹道导弹，此举敲响了警钟，观察人士认为此举是一个精心盘算的举动，目的是试探美国领导人。

Mr Trump, who was hosting Shinzo Abe, Japan’s prime minister, at the time, responded only with a statement in support of the US’s “great ally” in Tokyo.

当时正在接待日本首相安倍晋三(Shinzo Abe)的特朗普只是回应称，支持美国的“伟大盟国”日本。

Dennis Wilder, a former Central Intelligence Agency analyst who was Asia adviser to George W Bush, said there had long been rumours that Kim Jong Un wanted to kill his half brother. “He wants no alternatives among the North Korean elite to his rule,” said Mr Wilder. “It fits with the kind of vicious policies he has pursued internally.”

中央情报局(CIA)前分析师、曾担任乔治•W•布什(George W Bush)的亚洲顾问的韦德宁(Dennis Wilder)表示，有关金正恩想要除掉同父异母长兄的传言由来已久。“他希望在朝鲜的精英阶层中没有可以替代他的统治者地位的人选，”韦德宁表示。“这与他在国内推行的那种残暴政策相符。”

If proven to have been the work of North Korea, the assassination is likely to further strain Pyongyang’s ties with China, which harboured Kim in Macau, where he lived in exile for years.

如果被证明是朝鲜官方所为，这起暗杀事件可能会导致平壤方面与中国的关系进一步趋于紧张;流亡的金正男生前在中国的澳门生活了多年。

“Beijing is stuck. They don’t trust Kim [Jong Un] but they have no better options,” said Bill Bishop, a China expert who publishes the popular Sinocism newsletter on Chinese politics. “Beijing was livid when he killed his uncle, who was one of — if not the — key link with Beijing.”

“北京方面左右为难。他们不信任金正恩，但他们没有更好的选择，”中国问题专家利明璋(Bill Bishop)表示，“北京方面曾对他杀死自己的姑父感到震怒，后者生前是平壤与北京之间的关键联系人之一，如果不是唯一联系人的话。”利明璋是有关中国政治的颇具人气的通讯《Sinocism China Newsletter》的出版人。

Chris Johnson, another former top CIA analyst, said the assassination could complicate US efforts to deal with the mounting nuclear threat from North Korea. Mr Trump has stressed that dealing with Pyongyang would be one of his top priorities, but short of a pre-emptive strike, the US is heavily reliant on China to tackle the issue.

CIA前分析师克里斯•约翰逊(Chris Johnson)表示，这起暗杀可能使美国应对朝鲜核威胁的努力复杂化。特朗普曾强调，应对平壤方面将是他的首要任务之一，但是除非发动先发制人的打击，否则美国严重依赖中国来处理这个问题。

“Given Kim Jong Nam’s longtime residency in Beijing and Macau, he presumably acted as a source of insight for the Chinese on how to interpret happenings inside North Korea,” said Mr Johnson. “With the earlier execution of Jang Sung Taek . . . Yong Nam’s demise could leave Beijing with very little feel for North Korean internal dynamics, and therefore more reluctant to push the North on the nuclear programme.”

“鉴于金正男长期居住在北京和澳门，他想必是为中方解读朝鲜国内动态提供见解的一个来源，”约翰逊表示，“在张成泽早已被处决的情况下……金正男身亡可能使北京方面不再能够把握朝鲜的内部动态，因此更不愿意在核计划问题上对朝鲜施压。”

Kim was well known at the gambling tables of Macau. He spoke good English and chatted affably with reporters. Like his brothers, Kim grew up in a cloistered world but with privileged access to foreign films and luxury goods. Kim Han-sol, his son, attended university in Paris for about a year from September 2013.

金正男是澳门赌场的常客。他能说流利的英语，也愿意和记者们亲切交谈。像弟弟们一样，金正男在一个封闭世界长大，但拥有获得奢侈品的特权，也能看外国电影。他的儿子金韩松(Kim Han-sol)自2013年9月在巴黎上了一年大学。

Additional reporting by Song Jung-a in Seoul

宋京雅(Song Jung-a)首尔补充报道