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美俄达成“重大协议”前景变得遥远

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2017年02月27日

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What looked like a coup for Russia in interfering in the US election is backfiring. Moscow’s electoral hacking may have helped its favoured candidate reach the White House — even if Donald Trump is not quite the “Siberian candidate” it expected. But Michael Flynn’s resignation as national security adviser after his ill-advised and potentially illegal dealings with Russia’s US ambassador to the US, make any reset or “grand bargain” with President Vladimir Putin less likely.

俄罗斯干预美国大选看起来干得漂亮,如今却在产生反效果。莫斯科方面实施的黑客攻击可能帮助其青睐的候选人成功入主了白宫——即使唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)不太像其所期待的“来自西伯利亚的候选人”。但白宫国家安全顾问迈克尔•弗林(Michael Flynn)因与俄罗斯驻美大使进行不明智且可能违法的谈话而辞职,已经降低了美俄关系“重置”、特朗普与俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔•普京(Vladimir Putin)达成“重大协议”的可能性。

美俄

That is not just because Mr Flynn had been a leading proponent of such a deal, and may well now be replaced by someone with very different views. For Mr Trump, pursuing a rapprochement with Russia or making any concession on sanctions would be an even riskier gamble.

这不光是因为弗林是此类协议的主要支持者,接替他的人可能观点迥异。而且,对特朗普而言,如今寻求与俄罗斯缓和关系或者在制裁俄罗斯方面做出任何让步都将是一场更冒险的赌博。

It is long past time for Republican leaders to launch a full congressional investigation into Mr Trump’s Russian ties. Such an investigation could be highly damaging. Recent leaks suggesting co-ordination between Mr Trump’s campaign team and Russian intelligence officials should not be brushed aside. US national interests are at stake.

共和党领导层早该针对特朗普与俄罗斯的联系发起全面的国会调查。这样的调查可能会带来极大的破坏。最近的爆料表明,特朗普选举团队与俄罗斯情报官员之间的协调不应被忽视,这关系到美国的国家利益。

This week’s extraordinary developments already appear to have prompted a change of tone on Russia, even though foreign policy flip-flops have become a feature of the Trump White House.

本周离奇的事态发展似已促使特朗普政府改变了在俄罗斯事务上的论调,虽说在外交政策上出尔反尔已经成为特朗普政府的一个特征。

Comments by the president and his spokesman since Tuesday that Russia “took” Crimea and should return it to Ukraine are a striking volte-face from Mr Trump’s campaign hints that he might recognise Russia’s claim to the Black Sea peninsula.

特朗普总统和他的发言人自周二以来表达了这样的意思:俄罗斯应该向乌克兰归还其“拿走”的克里米亚。这是一个引人注目的反转,因为在竞选中他暗示过可能会承认俄罗斯对这个黑海半岛的主权主张。

In response, the mood in Moscow seems to be shifting from initial jubilation over Mr Trump’s election victory and its implications for ties with the US, to consternation. Russia’s foreign ministry responded testily to the White House’s Crimea comments that “we don’t give back our own territory”.

面对这种转变,莫斯科的情绪似乎正从对特朗普胜选及其将给美俄关系带来的影响感到欢欣鼓舞转为震惊。对白宫关于克里米亚的言论,俄罗斯外长做出恼怒的回应,表示“我们不会交还我们本国的领土”。

It is to be welcomed that US institutions are reinforcing the checks and balances on the Trump administration — even if leaking by security services of conversations of senior US officials is a somewhat dubious device. There are also important lessons here for Russia at a time when it might be attempting to meddle in forthcoming French and German elections, as it did in the US campaign.

美国各机构正在加强对特朗普政府的制衡,这一点是可喜的——虽说安全部门泄露本国高级官员的谈话内容这种手段不太光彩。俄罗斯也可以从这件事中吸取重要教训,它或许正试图像干预美国大选那样,插手即将到来的法国和德国大选。

Moscow should be careful what it wishes for. It may seem attractive to have its favoured candidates in positions of power. Backing extremist and Eurosceptic candidates may also support the Kremlin’s broad foreign policy aims of weakening the EU and fracturing European unity on sanctions against Russia.

对于自己想要的是什么,莫斯科应该谨慎。让青睐的候选人坐上权力宝座似乎很有吸引力。支持立场极端、持欧洲怀疑论的候选人或许也符合克里姆林宫的外交政策目标:削弱欧盟(EU)和破坏欧洲在制裁俄罗斯问题上的一致立场。

Yet a candidate might not behave as Russia hopes once he or she reaches office. Indeed, popular perceptions that a political leader has been helped into power by Moscow — especially a nationalist supposedly committed to strengthening their state’s political sovereignty — can be counterproductive. They could encourage new leaders to keep their distance from the Kremlin. Russian interference in foreign elections can create chaos but not necessarily influence.

然而,这个候选人上台后或许不会如俄罗斯期望的那样行动。事实上,如果民众认为一个政治领导人是被莫斯科扶植上位的——特别是如果此人是个民族主义者,理应致力于加强本国的政治主权——那么莫斯科的做法可能适得其反。民众的看法可能促使新领导人与克里姆林宫保持距离。俄罗斯干涉外国大选或许会制造混乱,但不一定会从中获得影响力。

Mr Putin is unlikely to give up the adventurism, however. With a grand bargain with the US looking a more distant prospect, the opportunistic Russian leader may still opt to up the ante militarily in Ukraine or elsewhere. However, if he really wants to see sanctions against Russia lifted, and strengthen Moscow’s recovery from recession, he would do far better to address the real reasons for those sanctions. That means complying with the Minsk peace accord and restoring the territorial integrity of Ukraine.

不过普京不太可能放弃冒险主义。随着与美国达成“重大协议”的前景看起来变得更加遥远,机会主义的俄罗斯领导人可能依然选择在乌克兰或者其他地方加大军事赌注。然而,如果普京真的希望俄罗斯能被解除制裁,并且更有力地从经济衰退中复苏,那么,着手解决招致制裁的真正原因,效果会好得多。那意味着要遵守明斯克和平协定,还乌克兰领土完整。
 


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