德国能否避免孤立命运？

Angela Merkel has described the idea that she is now the de facto leader of the western world as “grotesque” and “absurd”. The German chancellor’s angst is understandable. Modern Germany has no desire to lead the west and is not powerful enough to bear that burden.

安格拉•默克尔(Angela Merkel)称，认为她眼下是西方世界事实上的领导者的想法是“怪诞的”和“荒唐的”。这位德国总理的焦虑可以理解。现代德国没有领导西方的愿望，也没有足够大的实力来承担这一负担。

But unrealistic expectations are not the only reason for German anxiety. If Ms Merkel looks out from the glass box of the chancellor’s office in Berlin there is trouble on every horizon. To the east are the ever more authoritarian and Germanophobic governments of Poland and Hungary. And further east a hostile Russia. To the west, is the US of Donald Trump; to the north the UK of Brexit. And to the south lie Italy and Greece, two troubled countries that increasingly blame Germany for their economic woes.

但不切实际的期望并非导致德国产生焦虑的唯一原因。如果默克尔从柏林的玻璃盒子般的总理办公室向外看去，每个方向都有麻烦。东面是越来越专制和反德的波兰和匈牙利政府。再往东是敌对的俄罗斯。西面是唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)主政下的美国;北面是退欧的英国。南面是意大利和希腊，这两个陷入困境的国家日益把自己的经济麻烦怪到德国头上。

Collectively, the situation threatens to revive an old German nightmare: the fear of being a large, isolated power at the centre of Europe. The situation must feel even more grotesque because — unlike in the 20th century — Germany’s current loneliness has very little to do with the country’s own malign behaviour. On the contrary, it is the world around Germany that is changing fast, as populism and nationalism surge across Europe and in the US.

综合来看，这种局面可能唤醒德国一个古老的噩梦：成为欧洲中央一个孤立大国的可怕情形。现在的局面肯定感觉比那个噩梦更怪诞，因为跟20世纪不同的是，德国目前的孤独状态，基本上不是它自己行为不端导致的。相反，是德国周围的世界在快速变化，民粹主义和民族主义席卷整个欧洲和美国。

Of course, there are criticisms that can be made of the Merkel government’s handling of the euro and refugee crises. Those criticisms are made with great ferocity in Warsaw, Athens and other EU capitals. But nobody seriously doubts modern Germany’s commitment to liberal values at home, and internationalism abroad.

当然，我们可以批评默克尔政府对欧元和难民危机的处置方式。在波兰、希腊和其他欧盟成员国，德国政府在这些问题上遭到了猛烈批评。但是，没有人真正质疑现代德国在国内对于自由价值观、在国外对于国际主义的坚守。

The problem is that Germany’s unwavering commitment to these values feels like the exception in the west, not the rule. One American delegate, returning from the recent Munich Security Conference, remarked to me that “it felt good to be in a normal country, again”. But German normality is now abnormal.

问题是，德国对这些价值观的坚守像是西方的例外，而不是惯例。参加了最近的慕尼黑安全政策会议(Munich Security Conference)的一位美国代表，回来后对我说，“再次身处一个正常国家的感觉真好”。但现在，德国的正常反而是反常的。

The danger and peculiarity of Germany’s position is underlined when compared with the international situation that faced the country in mid-2008, just before the outbreak of the financial crisis. That summer, a charismatic and idealistic US presidential candidate named Barack Obama came to Berlin and spoke before a huge and enthusiastic crowd.

与德国在2008年年中金融危机爆发前所面临的国际形势相比时，眼下局面的危险和特殊性显得更突出。那年夏天，魅力十足、心怀理想主义的美国总统候选人巴拉克•奥巴马(Barack Obama)来到了柏林，在庞大、狂热的人群面前发表了讲话。

In Moscow, a more pro-western president, Dmitry Medvedev, took over from Vladimir Putin. With the eastward enlargement of the EU recently completed, Germany was now surrounded by friendly democracies that were fellow members of the bloc. The euro seemed to be operating well and the countries of southern Europe were prosperous and shared Germany’s enthusiasm for the EU. Both Britain and France were governed by pro-EU centrist governments.

在莫斯科，一个更亲西方的总统德米特里•梅德韦杰夫(Dmitry Medvedev)从弗拉基米尔•普京(Vladimir Putin)手中接掌了权力。欧盟东扩刚刚完成，当时的德国周围都是同属欧盟的友好民主国家。欧元似乎运行良好，南欧国家繁荣发展，跟德国一样对欧盟充满热情。英国和法国都在亲欧盟的中间派政府治理下。

Less than a decade on and all of that has changed utterly. For Germany, the most troubling developments are probably those closest to home. The EU is meant to be the ultimate guarantee against the return of German isolation on the European continent. But Britain has voted to leave. Brexit means that the EU is losing a country that has always been crucial to the European balance of power. It also sets a precedent for possible future defections. It is now clear that the EU can indeed break up.

不到十年过去，所有这一切都彻底改变了。对德国来说，最令人不安的事态很可能是发生在家门口的那些。欧盟本应成为防止德国再次孤独地立于欧洲大陆的终极保障。但英国已投票决定离开。英国退欧意味着欧盟将失去一个始终对欧洲格局的平衡至关重要的国家。英国退欧也为未来其他国家可能退欧创下了先例。目前很明显的是，欧盟确实有可能解体。

Almost as alarming for Germany is the prospect that countries will stay within the EU, but then fail to respect its fundamental values and economic rules. The erosion of democracy in Poland and Hungary — amid a resurgent nationalism — is profoundly worrying for the Merkel government because there is no clear remedy. The EU was meant to be the insurance policy against this sort of thing but it has failed to deliver.

几乎同样令德国担忧的是这种情况：各成员国将留在欧盟，但随后又不遵守欧盟的基本价值观和经济规则。在民族主义复兴的背景下，波兰和匈牙利的民主受到侵蚀，引起了默克尔政府的深度担心，因为对此并无显而易见的补救措施。创立欧盟本是为了防止此类事情发生，但它辱没了这一使命。

In the coming weeks and months, populist and nationalist parties will also perform strongly in the Dutch and French elections. If Marine Le Pen wins the French presidency in May, many in Berlin fear that the EU could collapse.

在接下来的数周和数月里，民粹主义和民族主义政党也将在荷兰和法国的选举中表现强劲。如果马琳•勒庞(Marine Le Pen)在5月的法国总统选举中获胜，德国政府中很多人担心欧盟可能崩溃。

Meanwhile in Italy, the pro-EU centre is shrinking under the impact of the euro crisis. The populist and Eurosceptic Five Star movement is the country’s main opposition and could come to power in the next 12 months. The Greek debt crisis may soon revive.

与此同时，在意大利，亲欧盟的中间力量在欧元危机的冲击下在退缩。民粹主义、持疑欧立场的五星运动党(Five Star movement)是该国的主要反对派，该党有可能在未来12个月内掌权。希腊债务危机或许很快就会卷土重来。

Developments in Moscow and Washington are also profoundly worrying for the German government. Germany led the European response to Russia’s illegal annexation of Crimea. But the price of that has been a sharp rise in hostility between Ms Merkel’s Germany and Mr Putin’s Russia. Given the gruesome history of the 20th century, a hostile relationship with Moscow puts a special psychological pressure on Berlin.

莫斯科和华盛顿的事态也令德国政府深感忧虑。德国领导欧盟对俄罗斯非法吞并克里米亚做出了回应。但是，代价是默克尔的德国和普京的俄罗斯之间的敌意急剧上升。鉴于20世纪的可怕历史，与莫斯科交恶让柏林感到一种特别的心理压力。

Throughout the cold war, West Germany could at least look to the US for steadfast support. But in the Trump era that can no longer be relied upon. On the contrary, Mr Trump has been openly contemptuous of Ms Merkel and has raised serious questions about his commitment to the wider western alliance.

在整个冷战期间，西德至少可以仰赖美国的坚定支持。但在特朗普时代，德国已不再能仰赖这个。相反，特朗普公开蔑视默克尔，并引起人们严重怀疑他对整个西方联盟的承诺。

With so much going wrong for Germany, a huge amount hangs on the French election. If the pro-EU, pro-German Emmanuel Macron wins the presidency, there will be delight in Berlin. His election would break Germany’s growing sense of isolation, and offer renewed hope that a Franco-German partnership can revive the EU. By contrast, if Ms Le Pen wins, the German nightmare will be complete.

考虑到出现这么多不利于德国的情况，法国大选事关重大。如果亲欧盟、亲德国的埃马纽埃尔•马克龙(Emmanuel Macron)赢得法国总统选举，德国会感到高兴。他的当选将打破德国日益浓厚的孤立感，并让人看到法德伙伴关系可以重振欧盟的新希望。相比之下，如果勒庞获胜，德国的噩梦就将成为现实。