Lex专栏：神华能源诱人吗？

A healthy canary meant a healthy mine in the old days. Strong 2016 results from China Shenhua Energy might equally suggest the country’s coal industry is in good shape. The largest-listed coal supplier by sales registered its first net profit growth in four years. On Monday, the shares rose as much as 20 per cent on news of a special dividend. The euphoria may not last.

一只健康的金丝雀在过去意味着一座富矿。中国神华能源(China Shenhua Energy) 2016年的强劲业绩可能同样表明中国煤炭行业状况良好。按销售额计算为最大上市煤炭供应商的神华能源4年来首次实现净利润增长。周一，其派发特别股息的消息使股价飙涨，最多达20%。这种欣快感可能不会持续。

As with many industrial groups, Shenhua’s recovery has been state led. Last year, in order to improve coal prices and lighten debt servicing burdens on producers, regulators restricted production. The measure was successful — too much so, in fact. From first half lows, coal prices nearly doubled to November highs. Fretting over soaring prices and potential winter shortages, regulators relaxed output curbs. Prices eased until reports of new restrictions last month.

与许多工业集团一样，神华的复苏是由国家主导的。去年，为了支持煤炭价格和减轻生产企业的偿债负担，监管机构限制了生产。这一措施是成功的，事实上过于成功了。从上半年的低点至11月的高点，煤炭价格近乎翻番。由于担忧价格飙升和冬季出现短缺，监管机构放松了生产限制。煤价随即下降——直到上月有关新限制措施的消息出炉。

This flip-flopping is typical of China’s government and reflects prevailing policy skews. Higher prices may appear good for ailing coal miners but they do not function in isolation. The knock-on effects for energy supply and pricing are politically awkward.

这种翻转是中国政府部门的典型特征，反映当前的政策侧重点。较高的价格可能对经营不佳的煤矿企业有利，但它们并不孤立发挥作用。在能源供应和定价方面产生的连锁效应在政治上是尴尬的。

In any event, the supply side tinkering is insufficient to support coal prices in the long run. Fitch Ratings notes that in the first eight months of 2016, 152m tonnes of excess coal capacity were cut, compared with 800m tonnes under construction and another 600m tonnes seeking approval. Meanwhile, Carbon Tracker Initiative says the demand outlook is no healthier. Utilisation of China’s coal-fired energy capacity is only 50 per cent. Planned capacity increases of three quarters do not bode well as consumption growth slows from 10 to 3 per cent per year. More efficient generation from existing plants and increases in other sources of power add to the woe.

无论如何，供给侧的小修小补不足以在长期支持煤炭价格。惠誉评级(Fitch Ratings)指出，2016年前8个月，1.5亿吨过剩煤炭产能被淘汰，相比之下，8亿吨煤炭产能正在建设中，还有另外6亿吨产能正在等待审批。与此同时，碳追踪计划(Carbon Tracker Initiative)表示，需求前景也健康不到哪里去。中国燃煤能源产能利用率仅为50%。随着消费增长从每年10%减缓至3%，计划中产能增长四分之三不是一个好兆头。现有电厂提高发电效率和其他发电来源增加发电量，都在加剧这种困境。

Shenhua’s shares may look cheap at 12 times 2018 forecast earnings. But this is pricey versus a five-year average of nine times. That canary may be chirping merrily now. Expect it to develop a nasty cough later on.

神华的股价看起来可能很便宜，只是2018年预测盈利的12倍，但与五年平均的9倍相比仍是偏贵的。这只金丝雀现在可能在快乐地啁啾。预计它在未来某时会发出讨厌的咳嗽吧。