中印转向电动汽车为石油需求增长画上句号

Some of the world’s top oil forecasters are starting to map out scenarios for what is billed as one of the biggest threats to future demand: China and India eyeing a ban of petrol and diesel cars.

中国和印度酝酿淘汰汽油车和柴油车，这被称为未来石油需求面临的最大威胁之一。一些世界顶尖的石油预测机构已开始设想在这种威胁之下可能出现的情形。

The two countries, which comprise more than a third of the world’s population, were long seen as the main drivers of growing oil consumption as more people take to the road in their fast-developing economies.

中印两国人口加起来占到世界总人口的三分之一以上，在这两个快速发展的经济体中，越来越多的人选择开车出行，因此两国长期以来被视为是石油消费持续增长的主要驱动力。

In the past month, however, Chinese officials have floated the possibility of phasing out the production and sale of fossil-fuelled vehicles, following the UK and France which have said they aim to ban diesel and petrol cars by 2040.

然而，过去一个月，中国官员提出了逐步停止生产和销售化石燃料汽车的可能性。此前英国和法国已宣布到2040年将禁止柴油车和汽油车。

India indicated this year it wanted all cars to be powered by electricity by 2030.

印度今年也提出，希望到2030年国内销售的汽车全部为电力驱动。

While doubts remain about the feasibility of such timelines, Pira Energy and Wood Mackenzie, the consultancies that advise some of the biggest energy companies and investors, have flagged in reports the rising risk to oil consumption.

尽管对于此类时间表的可行性仍存在疑问，但为一些大型能源公司和投资者提供咨询服务的Pira Energy和Wood Mackenzie均在报告中提到了石油消费面临的这个不断上升的风险。

Pira, a unit of S&P Global, said that while they remain “sceptical” fossil fuel cars will be phased out in the timescales under discussion, they can paint a realistic path where global oil demand peaks much sooner if China and India push towards a fully electric motor car fleet.

标普全球(S&P Global)旗下的Pira表示，虽然仍“怀疑”化石燃料汽车能否在上述时限内逐步淘汰，但他们可以绘出一条全球石油需求更早达到峰值的现实路线——如果中国和印度朝着全面电动化方向迈进的话。

Mark Schwartz, head of Pira’s scenario planning group, said “in a scenario where EVs approach 40 per cent of the on-road vehicles in the world by 2040, compared to our reference case of 20 per cent, global oil demand would essentially plateau in the early 2030s”.

Pira的前景规划小组负责人马克•施瓦茨(Mark Schwartz)表示：“如果全球到2040年电动车在公路交通工具中占比达到40%(我们的基准假设是20%)，全球石油需求增长在本世纪30年代初期将基本进入平台阶段。”

Oil demand, Pira argues, would be 10.8m barrels a day lower by 2040, removing the equivalent of more than 10 per cent of global consumption — a move it forecasts would cut crude prices by as much as $20 a barrel.

Pira认为，到2040年，石油日需求量将减少1080万桶，相当于全球石油消费量减少逾10%。该公司预测，这将使每桶原油价格下跌多达20美元。

Wood Mackenzie, based in Edinburgh, said recent comments by Chinese officials “reinforce the government’s ambition to promote EV growth” that already targets 20 per cent of new car sales being electric by 2025.

总部位于爱丁堡的Wood Mackenzie表示，中国官员近期的言论“突出了中国政府促进电动车发展的更大雄心”。中国之前已经制定目标，到2025年新售汽车20%为电动车。

If this rate were raised to 50 per cent by 2030, Wood Mackenzie said, as part of a phase out of conventional engines by 2035, almost 2m barrels of Chinese fuel demand would be “at risk”.

Wood Mackenzie表示，如果这一比例到2030年提高至50%——作为到2035年逐步淘汰传统发动机的一部分——中国将有接近200万桶的燃料需求“处于危险之中”。

This would require China to do much more at the policy level to support EV sales, however, as it plans to cut direct subsidies for such cars by 2020.

不过这将要求中国在政策层面上加大对电动车销售的支持，因为中国正计划在2020年之前削减对电动车的直接补贴。

“As government subsidies still play an important role in supporting EV sales, we believe the market response will lag five to 10 years behind any government target without further policies to fill the gap,” Wood Mackenzie analysts said.

Wood Mackenzie分析师表示：“由于政府补贴在支持电动车销售方面仍发挥重要作用，我们认为，如果没有进一步的政策来填补这一空缺，市场反应将滞后政府目标5至10年时间。

“Given the lack of clarity . . . about the timeline and the definition of cars being targeted, the viability of any ban on combustion-engine cars remains to be seen.”

“考虑到时间表和被禁汽车的定义都不是很清晰，任何关于内燃发动机汽车的禁令是否具有可行性都仍有待观察。”