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《汹涌的海洋:地图选择》

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2019年05月25日

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Record-breaking floods, stronger storms, unpredictable rainfall — none of it should come as a particular surprise considering Myanmar’s standing as one of the most vulnerable countries in the world when it comes to climate change and extreme weather events.

破纪录的洪水、强风暴、不可预测的降雨——在缅甸这一切都不值得惊讶,毕竟它在气候变化和极端天气方面是世界上最脆弱的国家之一。

But actually seeing the predicted impact of sea-level rises in Yangon mapped out — comparing a future with a world hotter by 2 degrees Celsius, then by 4 degrees — is pretty eye-opening.

但事实上,看到仰光海平面上升的预测影响——将未来全球变暖2摄氏度、与全球变暖4摄氏度进的对比图——相当令人大开眼界。

Take a quick look at the simulations created by Surging Seas: Mapping Choices and shared by historian Thant-Myint U on his Facebook page earlier today, and we’ll explain what you’re seeing below.

今天早些时候,历史学家Thant-Myint U在他的Facebook上分享了《汹涌的海洋:地图选择》(Mapping Choices)的模拟场景,图解如下。

《汹涌的海洋:地图选择》
 

In the first comparison, the one positing a 2-degree global uptick, a large part of the Irrawaddy delta is completely submerged, with patches of water covering a large part of the area across the river in Dala, Seikkyi Kanaungto, Hlaingtharya, and Kyimyindaing, surrounding Yangon proper.

在第一个对比图中,假设全球气温上升2度,伊洛瓦底江三角洲的大部分地区完全被淹没,在河对岸的大拉拉、凯南东、林塔里亚和基明丹的大片区域被水覆盖,而仰光就在附近。

In the second comparison — the 4-degree version — Yangon is almost completely submerged in water, with just a strip of town running from the downtown jetty to Hlaing township remaining above sea level.

在第二次比较中——上升4度的版本——仰光几乎完全淹没在水中,只有一条从市中心防波堤到Hlaing镇的狭长地带漏出海平面。

The projections may seem extreme, but the numbers correspond with those from various international organizations specializing in climate change and meteorology.

这些预测看起来有些不切实际,但这些数字与专门研究气候变化和气象学的各个国际组织的预测是一致的。

In a 2017 World Wildlife Fund summary report, published in conjunction with the UN and several Myanmar government ministries, experts predict sea levels will rise by anywhere from 40 to 80 centimeters by the 2080s, with a figure over 100 centimeters a possibility.

在2017年世界野生动物基金会(World Wildlife Fund)与联合国(UN)和缅甸几个政府部门联合发布的一份总结报告中,专家预测,到2080年,海平面将上升40至80厘米,有可能超过100厘米。

“Sea levels are projected to rise by between 5cm and 13cm in the 2020s along the entire coast of Myanmar, increasing to 20cm to 41cm in the 2050s, and 37cm to 83cm in the 2080s, with the potential for as much as a 122cm increase,” the report states.

报告指出:“缅甸整个海岸的海平面预计在本世纪20年代将上升5至13厘米,到本世纪50年代将上升至20厘米至41厘米,到本世纪80年代将上升至37厘米至83厘米,有可能上升多达122厘米。”

Just a 50 centimeter increase in sea levels could cause the coastline to retreat by almost 10km low-lying areas of the country like the Irrawaddy Delta.

在像伊洛瓦底江三角洲这样的低洼地区,海平面只要上升50厘米,海岸线就会退缩近10公里。

According to the Myanmar Climate Change Alliance, Myanmar’s geographic location, as well as its dependence on its natural resources and ecosystems for its economy and overall well-being make it especially vulnerable to changes in the climate, as well as extreme climate events.

据缅甸气候变化联盟称,缅甸的地理位置,经济和国民幸福对自然资源和生态系统的高度依赖,使其特别容易受到气候变化以及极端气候的影响。

In 2008, Cyclone Nargis claimed almost 140,000 lives by the most conservative estimates, and displaced 800,000 more, causing irreparable damage to many in the delta region who were not warned of the incoming storm surge, torrential rain and gust winds. Since then, more floods and cyclones have battered Myanmar, displacing thousands and killing hundreds every year.

保守估计,2008年,在没有收到风暴、暴雨和狂风的预警的情况下,纳尔吉斯飓风夺走了近14万人的生命,并使80多万人流离失所,给三角洲地区的许多人造成了无法弥补的损失。自那以后,更多的洪水和飓风袭击了缅甸,每年造成数千人流离失所,数百人死亡。


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