下周，这个人将决定英国数百万工作岗位的命运

下周，这个人将决定英国数百万工作岗位的命运

Rishi Sunak faces one of the toughest decisions of his four months as Britain’s Chancellor of the Exchequer, with the livelihoods of millions dependent on his next move.

作为英国财政大臣，里希•苏纳克面临着四个月来最艰难的决定之一，数百万人的生计取决于他的下一步行动。

After taking the unprecedented decision to pay 80% of the wages of more than 8 million workers as the coronavirus swept through the U.K. in March, he has promised to set out next week how he will start to scale back the program.

在3月份冠状病毒席卷英国的情况下，在史无前例的决定支付超过800万名工人的80%的工资之后，他承诺下周将开始着手缩减该计划的规模。

It will be the biggest test of how hard the former Goldman Sachs Group Inc. banker will find it to turn off the spending spigot after committing unprecedented sums to prop up the U.K. economy, burnishing his own political reputation.

这将是对这位高盛集团前银行家关闭支出水龙头难度的最大考验。此前，他为提振英国经济投入了前所未有的资金，提升了自己的政治声誉。

Now he has to balance the strain his policies are putting on the public finances -- the furlough program alone could cost as much as 84 billion pounds ($102 billion) -- with the risk that if he ends them too soon, he could trigger a wave of mass unemployment unseen since the 1930s.

现在，他必须平衡自己的政策给公共财政带来的压力，光是休假计划就可能耗资高达840亿英镑(1020亿美元)，如果他过早结束这些计划，他可能引发自上世纪30年代以来从未出现过的大规模失业潮。

“Given the huge effort and cost that went into putting the furlough system in place, it’s got to be unwound sensitively, or we risk a significant downside,” said Adam Marshall, director general of the British Chambers of Commerce.

英国商会总干事亚当•马歇尔表示:“考虑到实施休假制度所付出的巨大努力和成本，我们必须谨慎地解除休假制度，否则我们可能面临重大损失。”

Both the Bank of England and the Office for Budget Responsibility expect the unemployment to jump to about 10% from 3.9% now. That implies roughly 3.4 million people will soon be out of work, a figure not seen since the Great Depression.

英格兰银行和预算责任办公室都预计失业率将从现在的3.9%上升到10%左右。这意味着大约340万人将很快失去工作，这是自大萧条以来从未见过的数字。

Sunak, 40, has himself admitted he can’t save every job and has warned the country faces a severe recession on a scale “the likes of which we haven’t seen.”

40岁的苏纳克自己也承认，他无法保住每一份工作，并警告说，英国正面临严重的经济衰退，其严重程度是“我们从未见过的”。

So far, the Chancellor’s focus has been on saving jobs by splashing unprecedented levels of cash. By guaranteeing workers up to 2,500 pounds of income each month, he not only sought to protect the link between people and their jobs, but also to protect their pattern of consumption in the hope that their spending, and thus the wider economy, bounces back quickly after a brief disruption.

到目前为止，财政大臣的重点一直是通过投入前所未有的巨额资金来保住就业岗位。通过保证工人每月最高2500英镑的收入，他不仅试图保护人们与工作之间的联系，还希望保护他们的消费模式，希望他们的支出，从而使整个经济在短暂中断后迅速反弹。

But the virus has lingered, and the cost of the government’s extraordinary support is rising fast. On Friday, British mortgage borrowers were told they will be allowed to skip payments for three more months. In all, the U.K.’s crisis measures will cost 123 billion pounds this fiscal year, the OBR says.

但是病毒还在继续，而且政府的特别支持成本正在迅速上升。上周五，英国抵押贷款借款人被告知，他们将被允许在三个月内不还款。总的来说，OBR说，英国政府的危机应对措施将在本财年花费1,230亿英镑。

While Sunak’s job is eased by the Bank of England’s bond-buying plan and historically low interest rates, the damage to the public finances is mounting.

虽然英国央行的债券购买计划和历史上较低的利率缓解了苏纳克的工作，但对公共财政的损害正在加剧。

Even if the virus has passed its peak, the lockdown remains largely in place.

即使病毒已经过了它的高峰期，封锁仍然在很大程度上存在。

On May 12, Sunak extended the jobs program by an extra four months to the end of October, promising that furloughed workers will still receive the same level of support. From August, companies will have to shoulder more of the cost.

5月12日，苏纳克将就业计划延长了4个月，至10月底，并承诺休假的工人仍将获得同等水平的支持。从8月份开始，企业将不得不承担更多的成本。

Ministers are exploring making firms pay national insurance and staff pension costs that the government has taken on in addition to the wages, according to a person with knowledge of the matter. Other proposals include getting employers to pay 20% of wages with government shouldering 60%, or even asking businesses to meet half the furlough payments. Another possibility is to reduce the government’s contribution through August, September and October.

据一位知情人士透露，政府部长们正在考虑让公司支付除工资外，还承担由政府承担的国民保险和员工养老金费用。其他建议包括让雇主支付工资的20%，而政府承担60%，甚至要求企业支付一半的休假工资。另一种可能性是在8月、9月和10月期间减少政府的贡献。