[00:04.52]Listen and check your answers.
[00:07.81]Our prediction for next year
[00:10.61]are that unemployment will fall and wages will increase.
[00:16.30]If you want to buy a house,
[00:18.49]do it now as housing costs will rise next year.
[00:22.99]The good news is that petrol prices will decrease next year,
[00:27.90]but food prices will go up
[00:38.69]Listen to Bob Green,an economics expert,
[00:42.68]talking about his forecast for the economy for next year.
[00:46.89]Do these economic indicators go up or down?
[00:51.10]Mark the table in your book.
[00:53.68]INTERVIEWER:Today we have Bob Green,
[00:57.08]an economics expert,in the studio with us.
[01:00.58] Bob,could you tell us something about the economic forecasts for next year?
[01:05.57] For example,what will happen to inflation?
[01:09.28]GREEN:Well,I predict that inflation will rise slightly,by about 4%.
[01:15.68] Wages have gone up this year,and this usually means prices rise,too.
[01:21.58]INTERVIEWER:OK, and what about interest rates?
[01:25.68]GREEN:As you know, when inflation goes up,
[01:29.08] interest rates usually go up,too, to try to control it.
[01:34.07] So,yes,I'm afraid that if you want to buy a house or a car,
[01:38.77]it'll cost you more next year.
[01:41.56]INTERVIEWER:That's too bad-no new car for me next year!
[01:45.85]Now what about production?
[01:48.54]GREEN:Well,this is all part of the cycle:
[01:51.83]wages go up, inflation goes up, interest rates go up,
[01:56.92]so production usually falls.
[02:00.42]And,of course,with rising inflation,
[02:03.82]we won't buy as much ourselves,either!
[02:07.32] We predict that production will fall next year
[02:11.32] by about 5% because our currency will be stronger.
[02:16.31] This means that fewer people abroad will buy our goods
[02:21.30] because they are too expensive.
[02:24.09] Exports will fall,
[02:26.29] so we will not need to produce as much.
[02:29.97]INTERVIEWER:Falling production,falling exports
[02:33.44]-that all sounds rather bad!
[02:36.03] What about imports then?
[02:38.72]GREEN:Well,we predict that these will rise by 7%.
[02:43.13] People might not have so much money to spend,
[02:46.64] but what they do buy will probably be electronic goods,
[02:51.52] and we will import more of these to meet demand.
[02:55.41]INTERVIEWER: Finally,what about investment?
[02:58.81]GREEN:We think that investment will increase next year.
[03:02.60] Companies have to put more money into computer systems
[03:06.88] and into making their factories more modern.
[03:10.38]INTERVIEWER:Mr Green,thank you very much for your time.
[03:18.95]Listen to these people talking about the future.
[03:22.76]Write their opinions in the table in your book.
[03:26.26]1 WOMAN:Do you think cash'll become unnecessary in the next century?
[03:33.16]MAN:Oh,I'm sure it will.
[03:35.46] People will use credit cards or other forms of plastic money,
[03:39.56] so no one will need cash as well.
[03:43.16]2 WOMAN:I expect smart cards'll replace all the cards we have at present.
[03:49.77]MAN:Really?Why do you think that?
[03:52.67]WOMAN:Well,all you'll need is one card-
[03:56.56]it 'll have all the informationstores need.
[04:00.27]3 MAN:I'm certain information will be the most important commodity of the future.
[04:08.48] If you don't believe me,
[04:10.46] just look how popular the Internet has become in the past few years!
[04:15.27]4 WOMAN:They predict that 95% of people will work in service industries.
[04:22.48] I don't think so many people will work in these industries.
[04:28.36]WOMAN:The number's too high.
[04:30.73] Someone has still got to build things-
[04:34.21] roads,cars,aircraft, buildings,computers
[04:39.20] -you can't build them by computer!
[04:42.28]5 MAN:I expect many people will be electronic immigrants in a few year's time.
[04:49.36] I'd certainly like to work from home with a computer.
[04:53.04]WOMAN:Really?Why do you think that?
[04:56.44]MAN:Well,it'll be cheaper for the big companies to pay workers to stay at home.
[05:02.05]WOMAN:But what'll happen if there's a power cut?
[05:05.74]MAN:You'll have a day off!
[05:17.91]Listen to these three people talking about telecommuting.
[05:22.48]Make notes about their jobs and why they telecommute.
[05:27.08]1 I'm a computer consultant.
[05:30.76]I used to work for IBM,but now I have my own business.
[05:34.68]I'm based in connecticut,
[05:36.88]but I telecommute with clients all over the States
[05:40.77]and in London and Paris,too.
[05:43.48]I spend about 100 nights a year on the road,
[05:46.78]but I manage to keep in touch.
[05:49.28]Hotels can be a bit of a problem.
[05:52.08]Some of them don't understand the kind of things I need,
[05:55.76]you know,a desk with good lighting,a phone jack,
[05:59.94]and somewhere to plug the equipment in.
[06:02.74]But it's much better than when I first started.
[06:05.53]In fact,most of them are really computer-friendly now.
[06:08.93]2 I work for an investment company in New York City.
[06:14.94]When I had the baby last year I worked full-time from home for five months.
[06:20.63]I then worked as a part-time telecommuter for another six months.
[06:24.91]It was great.I could work better at home,
[06:28.49]because there were no distractions.
[06:31.18]No one coming in and wanting to chat.
[06:34.08]What I liked best
[06:36.38]was that I could work for severalhours at a time.
[06:39.88]Then I could take a break and be with my child.
[06:43.28]I've now gone back to work full-time,
[06:46.49]but I still like to use my home office for overtime work.
[06:50.28]I do some work-ups at night and I use it for brainstorming on the weekends.
[06:55.09]3 I work in the media relations department of a telecommunications company.
[07:01.67]I telecommute from home at least one day a week,sometimes more.
[07:06.16]The company puts through calls from the office,
[07:09.17]and I use a laptop computer to get information fromtheir computer.
[07:13.66]I find that it's much easier to concentrate when working at home
[07:18.15]because it's quieter.
[07:20.16]It's also more convenient when I have overtime work.
[07:23.85]I don't have to get in the car on a weekend and drive 45 minutes to the office.
[07:29.12]I just go into the study,call up my reports and do it.
[07:33.20]It's really very productive.