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美国之音2007标准下半年ATen Years Later, Asian Economies Remember, Lea

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Ten Years Later, Asian Economies Remember ,Learn Lessons of

By Heda Bayron
Hong Kong
03 July 2007

Along with much of the rest of Asia, in 1997, Indonesia suddenly spiraled into recession. Companies closed down, and workers lost their jobs.

Raden Pardede remembers those days. He is the deputy president director of the Indonesian government agency responsible for selling the assets of those bankrupt companies. "That's basically one of the biggest crises in our lifetime, because after that, I think in 1998, our economy really significantly collapsed, which in terms of GDP growth we had a 13.5 percent negative growth. So the world collapsed. After that, of course, most of the conglomerates collapsed, right? That's why we had significant unemployment soon after 1998. The middle and lower income groups really suffered."

The Asian financial crisis was almost unthinkable at the time. Asian economies were soaring. Companies were expanding aggressively, stock markets skyrocketing, fueled by foreign capital.

But the bubble burst, first in Thailand, where companies had overloaded on foreign debt. Worried investors began selling the Thai baht and it rapidly lost value against the dollar.

Panic spread. The Indonesian rupiah, the South Korean won, the Malaysian ringgit and other currencies sank. Stock markets plunged and interest rates soared.

Governments used up foreign exchange reserves to stop the currency depreciation, lent money to cash-strapped companies and bought shares in stock markets. But the crisis continued and millions were jobless.

Indonesia and South Korea asked the International Monetary Fund to bail them out.

Park Yung-chul, an economist at Seoul National University, says the bailout was a blow to South Korea. "People's first reaction at that time was shame. We were the 11th largest economy in the world. Big South Korean companies were investing everywhere -- in England, U.S., Europe."

Today, not only has Asia recovered from the crisis, it has learned the lessons of 1997.

"We have reconstructed much of the South Korean economy and the exchange rate is being properly valuated rather than undervalued and we possess a lot of foreign exchange reserve, which makes it less possible for foreign speculators to confuse the market," says Yung-Chul.

Raden Pardede says, if another crisis comes, Indonesia is in a much stronger position than in 1997. "We may see some crisis coming. We don't know exactly when, any trigger from one country to another country, contagion is of course inevitable in this globalization era. But I think the magnitude will not be the same as what we have in 1997."

Asian governments continue to take measures to strengthen their economies and, they hope, to prevent another crisis.

亚洲经济吸取教训,十年后全面复苏

和亚洲其他地区一样,1997年印度尼西亚经济突然急速下滑。公司倒闭,工人下岗。

Raden Pardede记得那段日子。他是印尼政府机构的副主任,负责出售破产公司的资产。“这次基本上是我们所经历的最大的危机之一,因为在这之后,我认为在1998年,我们的经济真的衰退了,国内生产总值呈现13.5%的负增长。全世界经济都衰退了。之后,当然,大部分联合企业垮掉了。那就是为什么1998年之后严重失业的原因。中低收入人群真的遭受了很多。

亚洲金融危机在那时简直是不可想象的。亚洲经济高速增长,公司猛烈扩张,受外国资本影响股票市场价格飞涨。

泡沫经济首先在泰国爆发,公司承受了外债。令人担忧的投资者开始出售泰铢,很快出现了货币贬值。

恐慌在蔓延。印尼的卢比,南韩的圆,马来西亚的林吉特和其他国家的货币都下跌。股票市场价格狂跌,利率剧增。

政府为了停止货币贬值用完了外汇储备,把钱借给身无分文的公司并购买一些股票。但危机仍在延续,上百万人失业。

印尼和南韩邀请国际货币基金会把他们从危机中解救出来。

汉城大学的经济学家Park Yung-chul说救援行动对南韩来说是打击。那时候人们的首先反映是羞耻。我们在世界上是第11大经济国家。南韩的大公司在世界各处投资,如英国,美国,欧洲。

今天,亚洲不仅从危机中恢复,也得到了97年经济危机的经验教训。

“我们已经重建了南韩经济,汇率在适当增值而不是贬值,我们拥有了很多外汇储备,这样不会使外国投机者对市场感到困惑,”Yung-Chul说道。

Raden Pardede 说,如果再出现危机,印尼会比1997年处于强势。我们可能会关注危机的来临,确切地讲不知道是什么时候,从一个国家向另一个国家引发时,在这样一个全球化时代蔓延当然是不可避免的。但我认为危机的大小和1997年不同。

亚洲政府继续采取措施加强经济,他们希望阻止危机的再发生。

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