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全球顶级CEO的演讲intel

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Good morning.
Distinguished ladies and gentleman, guests both in Shanghai and where you might be watching on your computer screen. We are trying to do some different broadcasting presentation in computing in different languages simultaneously.
Let me tell you all about what the premise of ever since that I'd like to talk about today. Our world in using computers towards a universe of reaching 1 billion connected computers, computer that can share information, data and that can work and allow people in different part of the world, to work together, to operate as if we were rightness of each other with neighbors of each other that is the premise of our work and that premise on which the activity, the large part of computing industry base today.
The two major driving forces computing industry today are first the available of the low cost and high performance of computing and all elements of global network that we are talking about and of course the network itself. Our industry that is looking at Peking industry with huge volume has become a major industry. I think them are add the number of 1998, the industry world wide we have showed something 100 million units of computers that is larger number than television sets production in the world. It is industry that grows in China, distributes in China, emerging at Chinese magnificent feature as a deading force in supplying China fency market that's very interesting sight, the sign of how industry of Chinese society in hasing, the world of computing and also connected computing.
Our work in the business of supply, the fundamental basic block computing which is microprocessor as the units of computing evolved, the use of microprocessors evolved as well and we evolve the technology according to the fact changes but typically evolution to allow the world to are the microprocessor's architecture into addition of segment are the computer universe changes. That industry what I mean by it in more a bit detail.
This is evolutionary in the basic computing industry as you remember fashion computer started as a best sort of machine basically as a office for people to do individual work on and then as a world one market of basic computer segmentation in basic computers in general should be modified in adopting the different segments of computer market some of them are the desk sort in the course of service, some of them. They make small in reliable in both with computers and increasingly broaden the segmentation in terms of computers are the consumers business users use the computers as consumers use the computers and believe that both purposes both carry with the computers. In the last couple of years we have seen the substantial forward segmentation, finer segmentation of the computing market. We see a product introduced as a microprocessor reach higher into the more demanding computers into enterprise service and in high performance computers. We at same time see another evolution of standardizing high service and economic at feasing industry to one modified service and at same time modified the service from that used to be the service to service designed to be the serviced.
On the best the fragment of the segmentation in the market also you see work stations at emerging market for our microprocessors and computer microprocessors as major market hold or microprocessors and computer microprocessors and same time you see very basic computers developing on the microprocessors. In the consumer phenomena again we see the performance computers and basic computers is evolving as well our challenge as a designer and manufacturer of microprocessors in supplying and serving the fragmency segments of the market is quite bouncing we learned that to serve the segment in beneath the design increasingly different microprocessors for each of the segment of timizing the microprocessors of the segment while at the same time retaining the fundamental in architecture similarity up and down on that diagram. We do a lot of efforts in investing technology and manpower in the future and discuss a lot of efforts couple of months and we are going by a lengthy breath of easy change and find this market and we are investing a lot of money and hope the product of investment in the future. I am not sure the number for 1998 but our estimate of the product that 1998 will represent 8 billion US dollars.
The key element that we try to achieve as a server involving divergent segment is to use the same fundamental micro architecture of microprocessors to the entire this of spectrum of the application of segment that we call the P6 micro architecture. But keep in mind even the micro architecture is going to be the same up and down of segment the product themselves will be designed specifically at each of segment initially that optimize performance and cost performance at each of these.
The illusion of the product represents the supplementations of the products were at the segmentation of our brand. We have a successful in establishing the Pentium brand over the last several years as the major brand near all of our processors. As the single brand more than we can describe the multiple of the product family that we disper in establishing the fancy brand over the last year as a major brand the more than ordinary microprocessors so more important in that we will introduce or have introduced additional brands as Xeon(TM) brand processor represents the portion of product line that is designed for basic computing and the Pentium Ⅱ Xeon processors represents the portion of product line that goes to the higher level on the segment served to workstations and serve application.
Let me start by the area of basic computing, designing for basic computing again remain base on the same P6 microprocessor architecture on entire product line is based on. In addition the employ that we call smart integration that is using the increasing budget of more and more transistors on an economical and effective chip it achieve product effectiveness by combining different functions on the same flap of a chip. From the history being from time to time for example that way back from ten years ago when the availing processor architecture involved of the chip we discover that as the transistors budget increase as the functions that represented by separate chip on the same chip on that generation, the generation for the same degree. This function for the processor than forward from that to be present day beyond from Peking at product at same chip on which we do up on the micro pro revived. Put it as an example. The product information that we intend to employ collectively exhibits as it design for microprocessors called the basic computing segment.
In addition to that even the on cost effectiveness of the segment we are adopting a low cost packaging technology called this and are in order to illustrated this. Let me introduce what the main line microprocessor's central process looks like probably the Xeon has the feature of television but the package design for the Pentium Ⅱ microprocessor is like this, in this housing is a core which has a high connection it is meant to be a flexible design, and it is not an extra effective as one can do connection in one specifically design for the products for cost effectiveness.
In the case of Xeon processor which contain similar conduct of micro architecture to the pension to integration and multigration is one thing .We achieve cost effectiveness a sense package with which are like this is hard to be going deliver the product so by a basic a whole different design in microprocessor for the basic PC. That is and we have a road map for the extend for the next several years. What I told you on the road map is a evolution of Xeon processor from the introduction in the first period 1998 through and into the first 1999 what you see is the inclusion of inboard cash memory and what you are going to the first half of 1999 the frequency in an excess of 300 MHz going to 333MHz and future time beyond that.
The quality we are showing you for road map of each segment that what you see is in each of the segment we try to use silicon technology to more the microprocessors in the segment we are showing you forward at similarly but different fashion representing different design project as I mentioned a minute ago. We have been benefiting in working on the microprocessor family. It's a new thing a year ago we have more individual specific designing product for this basic PC segment today we have 800 engineers working this on the product family as I showed you previously. The basic PC important as they are only represent a part of product spectrum.
Both the market worldwide in the US, that particularly that I have more details they are the main audiences who buy and value performance as much as the value cost effectiveness. This data is very sensing data and that three quarters are the consumer by public which is the basic PC maybe appeared you have bit enthusiastic category to buy the medium technology made it in different features for the performance PC category. They made accordingly we continue to put a lot of efforts in the development of microprocessor or in the performance for this segment and in that you see. The segmentation to split into the several new categories. I would look noble planning and workstation .
So I want to talk to you about what we do in each of the segment.
The new development in the road map I mentioned you that introduction of is a new micro architecture modified micro architecture new instruction fashion in the first half of 1999. The walking mean we call mean in the product Katmai than the introduce of going to have a fashion brand new at which is hard to pronounce what is the product will be distinguished first by Katmai
product is going to have different instruction for each particular including performance at the desert that is going to we can see at present represents a lot of design effort and the top technology effort leads to higher and higher frequency achieving 500 MHz frequency on the best sort by the first half next year.
The theme for our seminar today is business computing and you might sit and ask particularly might but who need high performance for the desk sort and business desk sort it computer that have today perfectly sufficient to do what I need you to do at work and the fact of matter is it isn't sufficient today and it would become lack and lack sufficient as the work habit of computer users obviously for the evolve and would become more issues particularly the traint that is going to develop and is developing .
And computer user is the visible and sometime not visible, sometime invisible application multi application, sometime when the users open but opposite application is fully visible but often time particularly when this computer resize the network is being the computation of patch in the background that are not even visible to the users at same time require procession performance, procession a said draining performance for the desk sort. This combination of foreground and background computing at same time require procession performance in a subtle and visible fashion laid the performing at micro processor and desk sort in a substantial push run under that I show how they come about you see foreground application that one visible to you and on your screen you see the multi application that you are using among which you are exchange data and background application that are driven by the network by the server that are management by the users only visible to you in that compact the machine the very slow operation even though you had bouncing network that causing that to happen and application that I show you, you will be familiar with that by the characteristic of foreground and background computing is a visible and may be a not so simple browser because whenever you have browser open what you are doing is usually manipulate user is at foreground activity, at same time the browser interest to the server which is connected the obvious information interesting information and that is background operation so every time user one browser you are in beyond one application next it and for foreground and background competition operation. All of this is getting a little complicated. I think it is the proper place they are showing better that telling for back work on anyone else to demonstration of plan.
(表演)
What we are doing of course in another group is setting the same performance that is represented by Pentium machine and bound to movable computing such as the modern employee who is rarely at easy back, contain that application then perform laid with then what we had here is a road map that is similar at somebody behind that performance of the road map against the introduction of Pentium II processor into a movable that capable of movable computer in the package looking this on the movable simply connected on the connection in which the same handage for wide even the back seminar to be included in the notebook both designed specific power more efficiently and are working on a quarter allow the high frequency operation of micro processors you call what you can expect to see in the first half 1999.
That sort in bind machine will be available in a notebook work pact back to operate this aspection on move application are here persperate that is seen the product by brand I mentioned Pentium II Xeon processor the road map is distinguished in suited action first of all for the introduction of Xeon processor in the second half this year. And secondly we will include the inboard memory, unboard cash memory side and of course lend the performance something in accept of another hood are hit the purpose of all these combination are the large cash and the seek forming rapid performance on that sort the illustrate hot filing through work of new tech is the demonstration of what processor than do rapid in that application. The kind of performance that you saw here and cost effectiveness performance from very angle part of industry to the visual they also appear in complete difference like mechanical design automation, electronically design automation and also as modeling their repeated representation of energy can gain information out of overworking among data. I can desert things much acute fashion out of visual representation that out of the seek data .
Let me want to the next segment with service and by way of motivation a project about image of the world of a billion connected computers by one of the things. A billion connected computers reguired can what we mean the service provide the art information that the computers want to act. The key principle here is PC economic the use of industry established (null class) either production we have name and provide very very major cost effectiveness in the users of Intel technology that easy effect of the cost effectiveness growly technology server under charge .
We show an industry sophisticated service and group of service altogether. The product compound that any group at server of people tone but it is made up to two categories intellectual service and other type of service, the intellectual service grows 38% while the other type of that grows 13% quite freely not only is serve population growing but economy should be serviced, standard high service and economic technology faster than the total. One of the challenge that we had over Pentium in the past we have new processors that would be dominant that application users processors of serve application. We did not shin on performance as we have much want to do compared the measurement of transaction for minute on which is commonly used service performance measure and on intellectual service which should be yellow the leading compound over sport machine which is the blue in order that the yellow has reached the richest for excute performance at part of compilation a processor and multiprocessor as well, the difference are not that large performance, are providing excellent performance that difference are large providing performance will be high value economically of feasing industry and we look at the cost performance and fly performance where grow line be economic service provide where more must be into cost performance. That the key challenge we have as we design product service is to acquire all of this quality that make the service as the key ability. The ability of what to ask one way to two way to four way and beyond service and we are making along the flow and we would like to call a mega themselves demonstration of the see ability looks like in a simulation of a real life honest have application.
(表演)
The Pentium processor is pretty yield processor it is ready for a museum at this point given
the later development and in fact we are going flash the work station service product that mentioned earlier is Pentium Ⅱ Xeon processor. Let me tell you and let me illustrate to you how the Xeon processor is begun from the Pentium Ⅱ processor it is in the gemology the next number but it is substantial different in economic for design because in the third segment is was man for hidden the server at work, workshop application that the way that was in the taking off it put the sort we take out Pentium Pro chip and become to 200 MHz we include the frequency and we include the cash by and place brand new Pentium Ⅱ chip we include the section with it and put it on the two sides board into a brand new package scheme that allow the characteristic to reach the outside board and what we have a function to Pentium Ⅱ Xeon processor looking exactly like this and deboard it as the animation showed the Pentium Xeon processor is what is called full the flop full processor crop represents the characteristic it carry move data such as what the need of demonstration. That is the application the cost frequency of course is the segment in all segments more than double the mega frequency that is pullage up to twice as large the inboard cash memory can it match of both management feature will be good.
That are cost founding details map to show as introducing as Pentium II Xeon processor to increasing satisfied at frequency exceeding by the first half of 1999,500 MHz, all of these come in the same method technology as all other microprocessor and therefore their cost effectiveness to the manufacturer and user. Correspondingly as early as indicate to work station software acquire volume to Intel architecture. These are supplemental application all of them higher than former supplemental application has been committed to more the introduction of micro processors in the servers area making up a substantial product so do the number grow everyday.
Beyond this we would begin at very significant mean architecture into 64 implementation what we call IA-64 line. The IA-64 line will be embodied in the first processor decoding at set and but if wanted first in a family that development will go on for many decades (null class) application such as that show the performance of the product Pentium about substantial hardware committed for the variety had about putting them working on the board that is worthy enough. We have on the company that a good number of those before this commitment have perceived a proprietary and rich architecture are special today in the line and move of them are abandoning that total together. Others are incorporating the IA-64 line ,in the line at the same time all of all that they need (null class) and win back a large number of superworld company and superyard product that had been forcing their product the intention to you push you optimizing their product to IA-64 has grown as IA-64 continue to grow similarly to the wrapper of a hard company what is important to realize.
However, we are not watching from the 32 line to 64 line. We are starting a new branch of proper serve in that would provide by the blue line into the IA-64 before higher performance and probably anticipate a high laid increasing performance in the years to come and continue in the extension of 32 bit processor line. Xeon processor as well as the product that are today in development that extend 32 bit line.
Beyond that would comprehend covering the entire feature of computing from the basic and interfecture in the enterprise shade application the truck is pushing to become a unifying architecture of computing. I describe to you the full driving forces at motivate a new one that core optimize at cost post one which is the low cost high performance computing and might ask that is the low cost high performance computing and segment of computing in addition to that connected computing is the second driving force as the development.
I solid presentation by mentioning expectation might target the cash memory to keep in mind the development is world a billion connected computers. As to said to ask what is today want to look like are the worldwide number of interconnected computers we are assuming a number worldwide reaching 150 million connected computers the wondering that some 60% theoretical project number another looked at 150 million equal or organization can exchange information with each other. Interesting enough in the just in the last year to hand rapid development Internet interconnected
Computer in China the operating computer with range full quite range beginning to our million connected computers in China alone . It is important to understand the connect year, begin that year by data were the computing.
Now today data network is achieved by fashion design data network for example the data network illustrated by the net experiment connecting quite similarly at server called the data network we have back the place presentation on the wall as we mentioned earlier, but a large portion of borrowing fashion the world network that design long before anybody for it, for data network and data communication and connected computers that people want the function of sufficient connection between one to another and borrow that complete the network but the picture lists were the portion tat visible above water level. It is the portion that is net work on the telephone network. The last bit were designed be a network the backbone network such as any organizations and companies that once mention like Xeon are data network to handle package communication. And that all the world up to 10% of world work trying that would be replaced by dedicate data network also that you have the limitation for network that you have designed. For that you borrow for data users.
Why is you important why is the internet in connected computers so important for business computing than is a very significant emerging trend which is the business is getting transacted increasingly computing screen to computing string and usual connection between the computing screen internet.
It is a very dynamic phenomena some indicate that 1996 a mount the trade that conducting connected computers made up implement borrow sufficient by that by the early next century 300 billion dollars of commerce representing a very rapid annual trade that I like (null class) demonstration to you is similarly that way.
Electronic commerce business connected string to string on internet connected computers were connected small companies along the world and become as much medium for commerce as fate work processor simple fiction has become the world medium of surprising the medium accounting.
(表演)
Freely the point available that the first year of late 90's a strategy inflection point for the major change in the conditions of conduct business for all types of businesses and the recognition for the increasing spending by business on information technology the charge for holding information technology standing.
The last 3 years are for this is increasing spending business on information technology different countries in the world and let me call you attention to it let free borrow represent from U.S. and percentage of grow the most product the total numbers of 3/4 percentage of center product and each year the percentage is larger than before. Many companies arriving an independent decision in concentrate the significant abasement and development the percentage is larger than before computers on their own business property, computers would go to the significant to the lower percentage level than some of the developed countries particularly in the U.S. that is a concerned development that we can go back econatriangle live birth if that is a burnt a worldwide set of organ dangers than economy that isolate then the fashion.
My single form is the interconnected PC will become for business of all types over the next decade and that in the world at a billion connected computers in that thing information technology is not a luxury, it is strategic necessity.
Thank you very much for your attention!

互联网世界中商业计算的未来

英特尔公司董事长兼首席行政官安德鲁·葛鲁夫博士

女士们、先生们,上海及其他地区和国家在电脑屏幕前的观众们,早上好!

我们现在正在做一件很特别的事情,那就是通过国际互联网用中文、英文和韩文三种语言实时播出今天的活动。

首先,我想介绍一下我今天演讲的要点:人类正在迈向拥有10亿台互联电脑的世界,联网的电脑能帮助我们共享信息,使世界各地的人们仿若比邻,能够分享数据,实现合作,这正是英特尔公司努力的目标,我们所做的大部分工作就是为了实现这一目标。

当今,推动信息产业发展的的两大动力,一是低成本、高性能的计算,另一个就是全球的互联网,信息产业已成为世界支柱的产业。1998年,全球电脑销量达一亿台,比电视机的销量要高得多,全球电脑产业实现了长足发展。特别是中国,电脑市场的平均年增长率为23%,而且在未来几年中会保持这一速度。根据不同估算,中国今年的电脑销量将达400万台。中国的电脑市场具有巨大的潜力,规模正在不断扩大。电脑越来越为各行业和社会各界所接受,人们对互联网络也开始显示越来越多的兴趣。

在微处理器方面,随着计算技术的不断进步,微处理器也在不断升级。我们开发这些技术,而且根据市场的变化不断更新这些技术。今天,英特尔在全球的架构体系正在展开新的计算市场细分,下面我来具体讲一下这方面的情况:

在初期,计算机产业最基本的就是台式机。随着时间的不断推移,电脑市场不断地细分为台式机、服务器、笔记本电脑等等,而且这种分类越来越细。我们可以看到,英特尔的微处理器能够满足不断提升的计算需要,如超级计算和企业服务器等。同时,我们也有标准产量的处理器,使业内人们所需的大批量服务器的性能不断提高,成本不断降低。随着电脑市场不断细分,高性能的电脑和基本电脑都在不断发展,工作站代表着新兴的微处理器市场,而一些相对简单的电脑也由于微处理器的发展而不断发展。

作为微处理器的设计者和制造商,英特尔面临的挑战是,根据不同市场的需求提供不同的产品。我们任重而道远,我们必须不断学习、不断调整、不断设计出形态各异的微处理器,并不断更新产品性能,以满足不同市场的具体需要。这需要大量的努力和大量的投资,由于我们坚信这个市场具有良好的前景,因此我们不断在设备、厂房、研发等多方面增加投资,而且随着时间的推移,投资数额持续上升。虽然我们不知道1998年的具体数字会达到多少,但预计在80亿美元左右。

在满足不同市场具体需求的同时,英特尔的宗旨就是将同样的微架构运用于所有的应用之中,这就是我们所说的P6位架构。大家一定要记住:在不同的产品中,英特尔用的是同样的P6位架构,但每个产品却是针对特定市场需要而设计的,以保证各市场中人们对性能和价格/性能比的要求。

最近,英特尔公司决定根据不同的市场细分来发展公司的品牌战略。过去几年中,奔腾(R)一直是英特尔微处理器最主要的品牌,但是我们觉得在当今时代,在如此多样化的情况下,光靠一个品牌是不够的,所以我们已经引入了英特尔公司的品牌计划,我们又了另外两个品牌,即主要针对基本电脑市场的英特尔赛扬(TM)处理器和主要针对高端市场,满足工作站、服务器需求的奔腾IIXeon(TM)处理器。

在计算方面,英特尔公司为基本电脑所设计的处理器基于P6微架构,除此之外我们还使用了巧妙的集成,在芯片上以更为经济有效的方式放上越来越多的晶体管,为保持成本有效性,我们在同一硅片上,将一些不同的功能集中在一起。从历史角度讲,我们一直在做这样的工作,例如,十年前当386是主要架构时,我们发现随着晶体管数的增长,我们可以把那些必须由一个单独的芯片才能完成的功能放在新一代的处理器上,并且是放在同一个芯片上,比如说将原来一些单独芯片的功能集中在486上。这样,我们不断使微处理器的功能越来越多,这就是我们所说的集成。我们希望通过集成,有选择地在我们的设计中不断增加微处理器的功能,以满足基本计算的需求。

除此之外,我们还要考虑成本效益,我们已经采用了一种低成本封装的技术。我们在赛扬处理器上做了一些巧妙的集成,从而在保证功能的同时,降低成本。

我们看看针对基本电脑的英特尔赛扬处理器的发展趋势,可以发现,二级高速缓存的变化,从没有直到128K,主频速度在1999年上半年将超过300MHz,估计可达到333MHz,将来甚至还会更高。

在基本电脑方面,去年英特尔公司还没有什么人专门从事研究,但现在已有800位工程师从事基本电脑微处理器的设计和研究。

全球范围内,特别是在美国,我们发现,客户对性能和成本效益同样重视。75%的消费者购买高性能电脑或基本电脑,25%的人购买发烧级电脑。所以,我们不断在高性能电脑上下功夫,不断在主流电脑、移动电脑和工作站方向努力。

我将简单介绍一下英特尔公司在这三个方面将如何行动。

在主流台式电脑方面,英特尔将于1999年上半年,推出新的、代号为Katmai的处理器。我们主要是进一步加强多媒体功能,而且我们还要作很多设计和处理器方面的进一步研究,从而能够提高主频速度,使台式机的主频达到500MHz。

我们今天探讨的主题是商务计算。大家也许会说,这一切都不错,但究竟谁需要高性能的商务台式机呢?我们当今的电脑是不是已经够用了?实际上,当今的台式机能力还很不够,而且随着用户使用习惯的改变,它会变得越来越不够用。

实际上,使用电脑应用分为可见与不可见两种。当用户打开几个不同的应用时,他所执行的应用是可以看得见的。但如果电脑处在网络中,那么网络会在后台执行很多计算任务,虽然用户看不见这些应用和任务,但它却需要电脑有很高的性能,这种前台和后台的计算实际上是很微妙的。前台应用指用户交换数据等等,后台应用指用户通常看不见的服务器或网络方面的应用。有时,即使用户没在电脑上干什么,但由于有后台应用,台式机的速度也会降低。以浏览器为例,当用户打开浏览器后,他所做的一切都是前台应用,但同时,浏览器要与服务器联系,服务器又需要与网络交流,以便提取信息、交流信息。总之,人们每次使用浏览器时都同时使用了前台和后台应用。只有高性能的电脑才能满足商业用户每天的大量任务需求。

在移动计算方面,英特尔已经发布了移动奔腾II处理器,使笔记本电脑的性能可以与主流台式机媲美。目前移动奔腾II处理器的主频为233和266MHz,到1999年上半年会达到333MHz。

在工作站方面,我们会推出奔腾IIXeon处理器,二级高速缓存会达到1M,主频也会增加到500MHz左右,从而使电脑的功率更大。

我们再来看看服务器。我们刚才谈到了全球将会有10亿台互联的电脑。而10亿台互联的电脑就需要数千万台服务器为人们提供服务。标准产量服务器将能提供优异的成本效益,使信息技术的用户获益匪浅。

业内统计表明,服务器的年增长率为33%。服务器市场由英特尔架构的服务器和非英特尔架构的服务器组成,前者的年增长率为38%,后者为13%,很明显,服务器的增长主要来自英特尔架构服务器。我们目前还面临很多挑战,因为过去我们的设计主要是针对台式机,但研究表明,无论在单处理器还是多处理器技术方面,英特尔架构的服务器性能已经达到和超过了非英特尔架构的服务器,也就是说英特尔架构提供卓越的性能。特别需要指出的是,英特尔在提供高性能的同时,也提供了计算机行业人们所需要的规模经济的效果,从而实现了优秀的性能/价格比。

高能奔腾处理器推出已有三年,随着当今技术日新月异的发展,它该进博物馆了。如前所说,我们现在已经有了奔腾IIXeon处理器,它针对高带宽的服务器和工作站方面的应用,这与其前一代的高能奔腾处理器不一样,我们用具有MMX(TM) 技术的奔腾IIXeon处理器代替最多只能有200MHz的高能奔腾处理器。我们提高了频率,提高了高速缓存,而且使用了新的封装技术,使得输入/输出端变得更合理。奔腾IIXeon处理器是我们所说的第一个Slot2(插槽2)的处理器,Slot2主要代表输入/输出特性,它能够处理更多的数据。除此之外,它还有100MHz的系统总线,处理器的频率也比高能奔腾超过两倍,缓存多了一倍,它有全速的缓存总线,也有更好的可管理性。

我们在引入奔腾IIXeon处理器时,不妨看看中档到高档服务器的处理器趋势。我们可以看到,到1999年的上半年,它会超过500MHz,这将代表着处理器方面的重大突破,而且其价格/性能比,无论对制造商还是用户来说,都会非常好。

同样,在工作站方面,量产服务器使主要软件移向英特尔架构。在服务器方面,所有重要的软件公司已经致力于转向英特尔的架构,从而推出进一步的新应用。这样的软件公司数量也越来越多。

我们也在致力于将英特尔架构进一步转向IA-64(TM)(英特尔64位架构)。代号为Merced(TM)的处理器会成为IA-64家族的第一位成员,它将在市场上遥遥领先。在硬件方面,它与32位处理器全面二进制兼容,而且它有优异的浮点运算和三维图像架构。它和奔腾IIXeon处理器的设计初衷一致,有更大的内存,更佳的智能型输入/输出特性,四倍AGP加速图像端口、图像带宽,满足服务器和工作站市场的需求。该产品的性能已经使得各软、硬件厂商作出承诺,它们都在向IA-64位架构转移。

不过,这并不表明英特尔放弃了32位,只做64位。我们的产品将会兼顾64位和32位,我们很多新的品牌也将继续沿着32位的方向发展。

未来,英特尔架构将成为商务计算的统一架构。刚才我们谈到了信息产业的两大动力。高性能、底成本的计算无疑是一大动力,而联网则是信息产业的第二大动力。

我们的目标是向10亿台联网的电脑迈进。目前全球大约有1.5亿台互联的电脑,这距我们的目标还差得很远,但其发展速度却非常快。在中国,已有100万台联网电脑。国际互联网为人们提供了无所不在的数据网络。

今天互联网是商用数据网和拨号语音网技术的结合。对消费者而言,互联网是便捷的数据交换网。但互联网的总体情况犹如冰山,使用电话拨号上网,是我们平时能够看见的、浮在水面上的,这部分只占整个互联网的10%。而冰山的大部分在水底,我们不易看到,这一部分就是ISP的主干网,它需要巨大的投资,占整个互联网的90%。

互联网的重要性非同寻常,因为随着商务交易的方式越来越多地从传统的方式过渡到目前的电脑屏幕到屏幕,转变到联网交易,互联网将对我们的生活和工作产生重大的影响。

1996年,大约有近80亿美元的交易是通过网上进行的。预计到2000年,网上交易将达到3000多亿美元。互联网使全世界所有中小企业连接起来,人们可以用它调取信息、下定单、查库存、安排送货、与各国不同企业取得联系等等。

我相信这样的商务形式将会象80年代文字处理器一样,变得相当普及。我想指出的是,90年代末将是所有企业的战略转折点。不管是何种企业,其企业行为都将发生变化。认识到这一点将至关重要,企业如果认识到这点,它们就会在信息产业上作越来越多的投资。

从过去几年中各国信息产业投资占国内生产总值的比例数来看,美国以4%处于领先地位,从1995到1997年该百分比一直在增长。许多公司考虑到互联网和互联电脑的飞速发展,已经不断加大了其在信息产业方面的投资。中国的信息技术投资占国内生产总值的比例约为1%,这要低于其他一些国家,但是这一百分比也在不断增长。很显然,如果在信息技术投资方面出现黑洞的话,就会面临很多问题。

我认为互联网上的联网电脑,将会成为下一个十年中企业在市场上制胜的关键,所有企业都是如此。在一个拥有10亿台互联电脑的世界上,在信息技术上投资并不是奢侈的消费,而是战略的必需。

谢谢大家!

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