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美国政要第6课

所属教程:美国政要

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The Gulf War & RMA
--Interview with Dr. Eliot Cohen, Professor of Strategic Studies at Nitze School of Advanced International Studies, Johns Hopkins University (February 18, 1998) 访霍普金斯大学尼采国际研究生院教授爱略特•科恩博士
MR. CHEN BOJIANG: The U.S. began the discussion of military revolution and future warfare just after the Gulf War in 1991. Currently the U.S. is planning another military attack on Iraq because of the weapons inspection1 crisis. In the context of military revolution, what are some of the changes in strategy and operational methods or tactics the U.S. plans to use in the coming attack on Iraq?
DR. COHEN: I’m not sure there’s much that I can add that’s not in the article. If I would, it would probably be classified-and I couldn’t share it. I think the biggest changes are going to be in the kinds of weapons that we use-all precision-guided weapons and I also suspect that the intelligence base will be better than it was. I’m not sure that there’ll be huge differences in operational technique2 -it will be more focused on what we called, at the time of the Gulf War, strategic targets. But I’m not sure there will be huge operational level changes. I don’t know about those and I don’t want to know about those.
MR.CHEN: What is the topmost achievement or theoretical breakthrough3 as a result of the discussion on the RMA up to now?
DR. COHEN: I’m not sure that there’s been a breakthrough. I think we are still at a very early stage, theoretically. Americans, to some extent are not as theoretically inclined as perhaps we should be.
MR. CHEN: What are the possible implications4 of the RMA on military strategy and national defense policy of the U.S.?
DR. COHEN: Well, I think one possibility is obviously it could-I think it already has, and will continue to-give the U.S. tremendous5 military potential and much more military potential than that of various opponents. I think one of the biggest change that we will see, and have already seen, is that military organizations will begin to look very different from one another. They will be much more tailored to their geographic and political circumstances. And it will be much harder to assess them and to compare them.
MR. CHEN: What are the main trends in the development of the RMA?
DR. COHEN: I think there are a number of trends. One very basic one is toward the end of the mass army6, that is to say the importance of large numbers of soldiers. I think that’s really gone down very substantially. I think towards the creation of network organizations rather than hierarchical organizations which is a profound change to the use of long range precision strike. Obviously, there’s a weapons technology which is very much the direction which things are going and I think in general towards moving away from large-manned platforms of the traditional type. I think it’ll be a long sunset, but we will, I think see the sunset of the named fighter bomber. I suspect tanks will probably look very different 20 years from now than they do today. And some of the large platforms like the aircraft carriers may not survive in the forms that we’ve known them. I think those are some of the big changes.
MR. CHEN: In one of your articles, you, and many other experts, including those on the National Defense Panel, argue that the Pentagon’s “two-war strategy” is not necessary. Therefore, is the U.S. wasting valuable time by applying the effects of the RMA to this strategy?
DR. COHEN: I would put it differently. I would say that by pursuing the two-war strategy, we’re denying ourselves to devote adequate resources to the RMA, because the “two-war strategy” tends to give us rather large force-structure focused on today’s technology. And what is more important, I think, is a longer-term research and development efforts.
MR. CHEN: What benefits might the U.S. expect to reap from a more focused attempt to nurture7 the RMA?
DR. COHEN: I think there’re two. First in general, the U.S. benefits from being the militarily predominant power. That’s-the RMA will help ensure that. But I think the other reason is more defense-the thing about the information technologies is that they’re truly available to everybody and since that is the case I can easily imagine either states or non-states trying to compete with the U.S., not head-to-head, not aircraft carrier-to-aircraft carrier, but to acquire the ability to deny the U.S. the ability to operate freely in various parts of the world. And to that end, I think it’s important for us to always keep quite a substantial8 advantage.
MR. CHEN: How do you view the essence of the RMA?
DR. COHEN: I think the essence of RMA will be some very large changes in the way the military’s organized and operates.
MR. CHEN: Could you give me some comments on the next direction of the research of the RMA?
DR. COHEN: As I said, I think the biggest issues will be experimentation-what’s more important now, either in research and development or theory - will be trying different kinds of forces, different kinds of operational concepts9. I think that’s the next task and not sitting around and thinking about it. It’s going to be trying to go out in the field and seeing what one can do.
MR. CHEN: What are the main factors driving the RMA?
DR. COHEN: I think the information revolution is a very big part of it. I also think the end of the Cold War is very important. It creates a very different international environment with the U.S. thinking about very different kinds of threats and that makes it possible at some level, to start over again. There is an important geopolitical element to it as well. I think for the U.S. for example, we’re increasingly aware that all the military has to be expeditionary10. During the Cold War the army and air force thought of itself as operating from Europe. And I don’t think that’s as nearly as much the case.

WORDS AND EXPRESSIONS 词汇提示
1.inspection [] n.核查
2.operational technique 作战技术
3.breakthrough [] n.突破
4.implication [] n. 含义
5.tremendous [] n. 巨大的
6.mass army 大规模的军队
7.nurture [] v.培育
8.substantial [] a.实质性的
9.operational concept 作战概念
10.expeditionary [] a.远征的

QUESTIONS AFTER LISTENING 听后答题:
1. When did the U.S. begin the discussion of the military revolution according to Dr. Cohen?
A.In 1997. B.In 1989.
C.In 1995. D.In 1991.
2. What are the biggest changes in the kinds of weapons that the U.S. plans to use in the coming attack on Iraq in Dr. Cohen’s view?
A.All weapons that U.S. use will be precision-guided weapons.
B.All weapons that U.S. use will be strategic weapons.
C.Only small part of weapons that U.S. use will be precision-guided weapons.
D.Only small part of weapons that U.S. use will be strategic weapons.
3. What was the obvious implications of the RMA on military strategy and national defese policy of the U.S. according to Dr. Cohen?
A.It could give the U.S. tremendous economic interests.
B.It could give the U.S. tremendous military potential and much more military potential than that of various opponents.
C.It could give the U.S. tremendous political interests.
D.It could give the U.S. tremendous cultural interests.
4. What is the basic trend of the RMA?
A.It is toward the end of the mass destruction weapons.
B.It is toward the end of the mass army.
C.It is toward the end of the mass conflicts.
D.It is toward the end of the nuclear war.
5. What was Dr. Cohen’s view on large-manned platform?
A.It will keep with the traditional type.
B.It will move away from the traditional type in a long time.
C.It will move away from the traditional type very soon.
D.It will only use for 20 years.
6. What kind of strategy was criticized by Dr. Cohen?
A.Containment strategy.
B.Enlargement strategy.
C.Two-war strategy.
D.Engagement strategy.
7. Why did Dr. Cohen criticize the two-war strategy?
A.Because the strategy tends to give the U.S. rather large force-structure focused on today’s technology.
B.Because it tends to use the nuclear weapons.
C.Because it tends to develop unmanned aerial vehicle.
D.Because I tends to deploy a constellation of sensors.
8. What will be the essence of the RMA according to Dr Cohen?
A.It will be some very large changes in the way the military’s organized and operates.
B.It will be some very large changes in the way the weapons develop.
C.It will be some very large changes in the way the forces are employed.
D.It will be some very large changes in the way of operations.
9. What was Dr. Cohen’s comment on the next direction of the research of the RMA?
A.The biggest issues will be the expenditure.
B.It will be the concepts.
C.It will be the experimentation.
D.It will be the organization.
10. What are the main factors of driving the RMA in Dr. Cohen’s view?
A.They are the political democracy and economic integrity.
B.They are the information revolution, international environment and geopolitical element.
C.They are the information revolution and cultural revolution.
D.They are the economic globalization and information revolution.

【参考译文】
海湾战争与军事革命
陈伯江:美国是在1991年海湾战争之后开始军事革命和未来战争的讨论。由于当前的武器核查危机,美国正在计划对伊拉克实施另一场军事打击。从军事革命的角度来说,如果美国再次对伊进行军事打击,其战略、作战方法或战术的运用会有些什么变化?
科恩:关于这个问题我写过一篇文章,看来你也已读过这篇文章。我不知道我能对文章内容作多少补充。如果要我补充的话,其内容将是保密的。而我不能泄密。我认为最大的变化是我们将使用的武器全都是精确制导武器,情报基础也将会比海湾战争时好得多。我不能肯定作战技术是否会有很大的不同,是否会更加侧重于攻击我们在海湾战争时所说的“战略目标”。但我不认为作战上会有重大变化。
陈:美国开展军事革命讨论以来,所取得的最重要的成果或理论上的突破是什么?
科恩:我不知道是否有突破。我认为我们从理论一说仍处在刚刚起步的阶段。从某种程度上说,美国人并非像我们应当做的那样擅长于理论。
陈:军事革命将会对美国的军事战略和国防政策带来哪些可能的影响?
科恩:一个很明显的可能性是它将能够--我认为它已经并将继续--给美国带来巨大的军事潜力,大大超过各种各样对手的军事潜力。我们将会看到、并且已经看到的最大变化,是军队组织将显得彼此很不相同,它们将更加适合于其地理和政治条件。因而对军队组织进行评估和比较将会难得多。
陈:军事革命发展的主要趋势是什么?
科恩:我认为有多个趋势。最基本的一个趋势是,人数众多的大部队将走向终结,也就是说拥有大量的士兵不再重要。我认为军队人数会大幅度减少。另一个趋势是建立网络式的编制结构而不是上下等级制的编制结构,这是一个深刻的变化。它有利于远距离精确攻击的运用。另一个明显趋势是武器技术的发展,它将按照目前正在发展的方向发生更大的变化,并且我认为一般的发展趋势,将是放弃传统的有人操作的大型平台。大型平台退出战争舞台。我认为20年后的坦克年起来大概会与今天的很不相同。并且某些大型武器平台,如航空母舰,将不会以我们现在知道的样式存在。这些都是重大的变化。
陈;您在一篇文章中发表了与其他专家(包括国防小组委员会的成员)相同的意见,即认为五角大楼提出的“两场战争”战略是不必要的。有人甚至认为美国将军事革命的成果用于这种战略是在浪费宝贵的时间,您怎样看这个问题?
科恩:我可以换一个角度说明这个意见。我认为实行“两场战争”战略,就无法将足够的资源用于军事革命,因为“两场战争”战略迫使我们继续依赖于今天的技术武装起来的相当庞大的兵力结构,我认为更为重要的是着眼于长期研究与发展。
陈:美国期望从这场大力培育的军事革命中得到什么好处?
科恩:我认为有两个方面.首先,一般地说,好处是美国能成为在军事上占优势地位的强国.这就是说,军事革命将有助于确保美国军事上的优势地位.但我认为另一个好处主要是在防御方面.信息技术确实是每个人都能到得的技术.由此不难想象,无论是国家还是非家的个人或组织,都有将能与美国进行较量.这种较量无需人与人进行决斗、航空母舰与航空母舰进行对战,而只要能够剥夺美国在世界各地自由作战的能力。正因为如此,我认为美国始终保持较大的优势非常重要的。
陈:您怎样看待军事革命的实质?
科恩:我认为军事革命的实质是组织与动作军队的方式将发生非常重大的变化。
陈:您对军事革命研究下一步的发展有何评说?
科恩:正如我已说过的,我认为最大的问题将是试验。无论研究与发展还是理论,目前最重要的是对不同类型的部队、不同类型的作战概念进行试验。我认为下一步的任务不只是坐在那里苦冥想,而是走到实验场上去,看看我们到底能做些什么。
陈:推动军事革命发展的主要因素是什么?
科恩:我认为信息革命在军事革命中发挥了很大的作用.我还认为冷战的结束也是重要的因素.冷战后出现了一个非常不同的国际环境,使美国思考迥然不同的威胁,使美国有可能在某些方面重新开始.还有一个重要的地缘政治因素在推动着军事革命的发展.例如,我认为对美国来说,我们越来越清楚地认识到我们所有的军队都必须具有远征作战能力.在冷战期间,美国陆军和空军认为他们只要在欧洲作战,我认为现在根本不是这种情况了.

KEYS TO THE QUESTIONS 参考答案:
1.d 2.a 3.b 4.b 5.b 6.c 7.a 8.a 9.c 10.b

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