美国政要第18课
Agencies and Organizations for
U.S. Military Doctrine
--Interview with Dr. Andrew Marshall, the Director of Net Assessment of DoD 访美国国防部基本评估办公室主任安德鲁•马歇尔博士
MR.CHEN BOJIANG: You are the director of Net Assessment 1 of DoD 2, I wonder if I can begin my interview with questions related to your work. What is the role of Net Assessment? How is Net Assessment related to the research on Revolution in Military Affairs and future warfare?
Dr. Andrew Marshall: Well, the role of the office has been to make assessments of the military situation, the military balance, in geographical areas or military mission areas. When it started, the office began in 1973, and it was focused pretty much on U.S., Soviet Union plus allies on both sides. The objectives of these assessment was not only to provide assessment, not only whether the situation was satisfactory, from a U.S. perspective3, but also to provide assessment of the long term trends that were underway, and to surface4 for the top level managers here in the department, issues they ought to pay attention to and do something about. It could be an emerging problem, or an opportunity we ought to seek. And of course with the collapse of the Soviet Union, we began to look at other things. One of those has been the possibility of a Revolution in Military Affairs. So we began in the late 1980s to make an assessment of that area, from the perspective of, did we think what the Russians were then writing about, the onset of a new period of military revolution in the late 1970s, early 1980s.So in the late 1980s we began to have an intersection5 of the questions of were the Russians really right, were we moving towards one of these periods, like others in the past historically when really big changes in warfare take place. If so, were we at the beginning, middle or end of the change? Why is it happening? So, in the middle of 1992, we brought out this assessment which more or less said yes we think the Russians are right, we're probably at the beginning of this process. Why is it happening? For the moment we think the driving factors are a result of the development of the information technologies, of the microchip6, and communications technology and so on. Then while we had a little bit to say about future warfare, we surfaced four or five major issues that we talked about. Since then, we've continued to work in this area, because we find not only notions7 about what future warfare might look like, largely through war gaming8. We've commissioned9 a number of historical studies. How are these big changes happening and why is it our military that's much more successful than others in this period of change?
MR. CHEN: How many agencies and organizations are in charge of developing military doctrine and military concepts in the national security structure of your country? What is the relationship between them?
Dr. Andrew Mar shall: How many? Well，you must know from your experience here, that the American defense research process is a very open one, and there are all kinds of organizations that have a role. Oh, to know about military doctrine, then that narrows it down a little. There are the military services, there's an effort to develop joint doctrine now, but broadly, over all kinds of other issues it's very complex and large numbers of organizations.
Practice Listening to words词汇听力练习：
1.Net Assessment 基本评估办公室
2.DoD:Department of Defense （美国）国防部
3.perspective [] n. 看法
4.surface for （向）……提出
5.intersection [] n. 十字路口
6.microchip [] n. 微芯片
7.notion [] n. 概念，看法
8.war gaming 作战模拟
9.commission [] vt. 委托，任命
【参考译文】
美国的军事研究机构
陈伯江:你是国防部基本评估办公室主任，我不知道我能否从与你的工作有关的问题开始我的访谈。基本评估办公室的任务是什么?基本评估办公室与军事革命和未来战争的研究有什么联系?
马歇尔:基本评估办公室的任务是按照地缘领域和军事任务领域对军事形势和军事力量对比进行评估。该办公室成立于1973年，当时的工作重点主要放在美、苏两国及其各自的盟国，评估的目的不仅仅是根据美国的看法做出对形势是否满意的判断，而且提供形势发展的长期趋势，就某些问题提请国防部高层领导人关注并敦促其采取行动，这些问题可能是正在出现的问题，也可能是我们应当抓住的机会。当然，由于苏联的崩溃，我们开始关注其它事情，其中之一就是军事革命。因此，我们从80年代末开始对这一领域进行评估，从美国的情况出发，对苏联在70年代后期和80年代初提出的“军事革命新时期来临”的观点进行了研究。于是，我们从80年代末开始提出这样一些需要抉择的问题:是否真的存在着苏联人所说的军事革命?我们是否正在进入像过去历史上所发生过的那种战争面貌将发生巨大变化的时期?如果真是这样，那么我们处于这场变革的开始、中间还是后期?为什么会有这场变化?到1992年年中，我们提出了对这一问题的评估结果。在这一结果中，我们多少承认了苏联的观点是正确的，我们大概已处于这场革命的开始阶段。为什么会有这样一场革命?当时我们认为是信息技术、微电子技术和通讯技术等发展的结果。在那一评估结果中我们还谈到对未来战争的一些看法，提出了四、五个我们所讨论的基本问题。自那以后，我们继续进行这一领域的研究，主要是通过作战模拟，认真研究未来战争的可能变化。我们还委托别人进行了若干项历史研究，努力寻找一些问题的答案，如:历史上的重大变化是如何发生的?在重大变革时期，为什么有些国家的军队会比另一些国家的军队获得更大的成功?
陈:在你们的国家安全结构中，有多少机构和组织负责军事理论和军事思想的研究与发展?它们之间的关系如何?
马歇尔:你从在这里的经历中一定知道，美国在研究方面是非常开放的，各种各样的组织都发挥着作用。至于说到军事理论研究，范围要稍微小一点，目前各军种都在努力发展联合作战理论。但从更大的范围说，所有其他各种问题都有大量而复杂的研究机构从事研究。
