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财富精英励志演讲 第34期:巴菲特:决定你成功的因素(4)

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Well, that’s a short little sermon.

上面我简单地我说了一下我的看法。

So Let's get on with what you’re interested in.

下面就让我们开始谈谈你们所感兴趣的。

And like I say, in go all over.

就像我之前说的那样。

So, I don’t know exactly how we gotta have this, butlet's start with a hand here someplace or other.

我不知道接下来怎样进行,那我们从举手示意的同学开始提问题吧。

There we go, for the first one...yeah, right here.

第一个问题,那个同学。

Q: Your thoughts about Japan?

问题:您对日本的看法?

W: My thoughts about Japan? I am not a macro guy.

巴菲特:我对日本的看法?我不是一个太宏观的人。

Now I said to myself Berkshire Hathaway can borrow money for 10 years at one percent.

我所在的伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司在日本10年期的贷款利息只有1%。

I say gee, I took Graham’s class 45 years ago and I have been working hard at this thing all mylife.

我对自己说,45年前,我上了本杰明.格拉姆的课程,然后我就一直勤勤恳恳,努力工作,

Maybe I can earn more than 1% annually. I really work hard at it.

也许我应该比1%挣的多点吧?

One percent. It doesn’t seem impossible, doesn’t it?

看上去那不是不可能的。

So I wouldn’t want to get involved in currency risk, so it would have to be Yen-denominated.

我不想卷入任何汇率波动的风险,所以我会选择以日元为基准的资产。

I would have to be in Japanese Real Estate or Japanese companies or something of the sort andall I have to do is to beat 1%.

如地产或企业,必须是日本国内的。我唯一需要做的就是挣得比1%多,

That is all the money is going to cost me and I can get it for 10 years.

因为那是我资金的成本,十年内我要收回来的。

So far I haven’t found anything. It is kind of interesting.

可直到现在,我还没有发现一家可以投资的生意。这真的很有趣。

The Japanese companies earn very low returns on equity,

日本企业的资产回报率都很低。

and they have a bunch of businesses that earn 4%, 5%, 6% on equity

他们有少数企业会有4%,5%,或6%的回报。

and it is very hard to earn a lot as an investor when the business you are in doesn’t earn verymuch money.

如果日本企业本身赚不了多少钱的话,那么其资产投资者是很难获得好的回报的。

Now some people do it in fact.

当然,有一些人也赚了钱。

I've got a friend, Walter Schloss, who worked at Graham at the same time I did.

我有一个和我同期为本杰明.格拉姆工作过的朋友,他叫沃尔特·施洛斯。

And it was the first way I went to stocks to buy stocks selling way below working capital. A verycheap, quantitative stocks.

那是我第一次运用买股票的方法,即寻找那些股票价格远低于流动资本的公司,非常便宜但股票数量有限的公司。

I call it the “cigar butt” approach to investing.

我管那方法叫雪茄烟蒂投资法。

You walk down the street, you look around for a cigar butt someplace.

你满地找雪茄烟蒂,

And you finally see one and it is soggy and kind of repulsive, but there is one puff left in it .

终于你找到一个湿透了的,令人讨厌的烟蒂,看上去还能抽上一口。

So you pick it up and the puff is free.

那一口可是免费的。

I mean it is a cigar butt stock. I mean you get one free puff on it and then you throw it awayand walk down the street and try another one.

你把它捡起来,抽上最后一口,然后扔了,接着找下一个。

I mean it is not elegant, but it works.

这听上去一点都不优雅,但是很有效。

If you are looking for a free puff,it works.

如果你找的是一口免费的雪茄烟,这方法还值得做。

Those are low return businesses.

不要做低回报率的生意。

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