财富精英励志演讲 第38期:巴菲特:决定你成功的因素(8)

[00:00.01]And yet 16 guys with very high IQs and very decent people entered into that game. 我所不能理解的是，这16 个如此高智商的能人怎么就会玩这样一个游戏。 [00:06.13]You know I think it is madness. 简直就是疯了。 [00:09.07]It is produced by an overall reliance to same extent on things. 某种程度上，他们的决定基本上都依赖于一个客观上的联系。 [00:14.21]You know those guys would tell me back at Salomon, a six Sigma event wouldn’t touch us,or a seven Sigma event. 他们在所罗门兄弟公司时和我说过，一个六或七西格玛的事件是伤不了他们的。 [00:22.35]But they were wrong. I mean that history does not tell you the probabilities of future financial things happening. 但是他们错了，历史是不会告诉你将来某一金融事件发生的概率的。 [00:31.24]And they had a great reliance on mathematics. And they thought that the data of the stock told you something about the risk of the stock. 他们很大程度上也依赖于数学统计，他们认为关于股票的数据掲示了股票的风险。 [00:39.42]It doesn’t tell you a damn thing about the risk of the stock in my view. 我认为那些数据根本就不会告诉你股票的风险! [00:41.48]And Sigmas do not tell you about the risk of going broke in my view and maybe now in their view too. 我认为数据也不会掲示你破产的风险。也许他们现在也这么想了。 [00:50.10]But you know I don’t like even use them as an example, because they are, I mean the same thing in a different way could happen to any of us probably, 亊实上，我根本不想用他们来作例子，因为他们的经历换一种形式，很可能发生在我们中的任何一个人身上。 [00:58.08]where we really have a blind spot about something that is crucial, because we know a whole lot of something else. 即使我们懂得再多的知识，只要在关键处有盲点，就很可能会功亏一篑。 [01:06.00]It is like Henry Kauffman said the other day:people who are going broke in this situation are of two types, the ones who know nothing and the ones who know everything. 正像亨利·考夫曼所说的，破产的多是两类人：一是一窍不通者;一是学富五车者。 [01:15.52]It is sad in a way. 这其实是令人悲哀的。 [01:18.09]I urge you, at anything, we never basically borrow money. 我建议你们，不管在什么情况下，都不要借钱。 [01:21.59]I mean we get insurance business in duty, but I never borrowed money,I never borrow money even when I had 10,000 bucks basically, what difference did it make? 我们是从来不借钱的，即使有保险做担保。即使是在我只有1万美元的时候，我也决不借钱。借钱能带来什么不同吗? [01:29.47]I was having fun as I went along and it didn’t matter whether I had 10,000 dollars or a million dollars or ten million dollars, 只凭我一己之力时我也乐趣无穷。一万美元，一百万美元和 一千万美元对我都没有什么不同。 [01:36.10]you know like if I had a medical emergency or something that come along like that. 当然，当我遇到类似紧急医疗亊件的情况下会有些例外。 [01:40.54]But I was going to do the same things when I had a lot of money as when I had a very little money. 不过，在钱多钱少的情况下，我都会做同样的亊情。 [01:46.02]If you think about the difference between me and you, in terms of how we live, 如果你从生活方式的角度来想想你们和我的不同， [01:52.35]you know, we wear the same clothes basically, SunTrust gives me mine, but you...so we wear the same clothes, we eat, you know, we all have chance to drink the juice of God here. 我们穿的是同样的衣服，当然我的是 SunTrust给的;就吃的来说， 我们都有机会喝上帝之泉， [02:05.19]We all go to McDonald’s or better yet, Dairy Queen, and we live in a house that is warm in winter and cool in summer. 我们都去麦当劳，或者去好一点的地方，去奶酪皇后店;我们都住在冬暖夏凉的房子里。 [02:14.46]And we watch the Nebraska and Texas A & M game on big screen (TV). 我们都在平板大电视上看内布拉斯加大学和德克萨斯农工大学的橄榄球比赛。 [02:20.03]You see it the same way as I see it We do everything (the same). Our lives are not that different. 我们做同样的亊情。我们的生活没什么不同。 [02:26.27]You’ll be given some medical care when something happened to you while I'll be given some medical care. 有病时，你能得到不错的医疗，我也一样。 [02:29.49]The only thing we do is we travel differently, you know, I ride on a little plane, I love it. And that takes money. 唯一的不同可能是我们旅行的方式不同， 我有我的私人飞机来周游世界，我很軎欢，这可能要花点钱。 [02:37.16]But if you leave that aside, if you leave that we travel differently, but other than travel, you know, think about it, think. What can I do that you can't do? 但是除了这个之外，你们再想想，我能做的你们有什么不能做呢?

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