华尔街的赚钱经 第21期:美国买房正当时(1)

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The Current Situation ofBuying a House in the US

美国买房正当时

If you can borrow at 4.5% or 5% over 30 years, many purchases start to look appealing. Especially if we get a hefty dose of inflation down the line.

如果你能以4.5%或5%的利率获得30年的贷款的话，那么，许多购房计划看上去立刻就有了吸引力。如果接下来会出现较高的通货膨胀的话，就更是如此了。

If that happens, your monthly payments will be low and you'd get to repay the principal over time with devalued dollars. That's a double win.

如果发生这种情况，你的月度供款会较低，你可以在一定时间内用贬值的美元逐渐偿还掉本金。这真是两全其美。

Inflation isn't guaranteed: The bond markets are only predicting about 1.4% inflation over the next 10 years, and BCA Research recently reminded clients that deflation, or falling prices, remains a danger. Unemployment is still rising and recent wages actually fell.

通货膨胀不一定会发生：债券市场对未来10年的通货膨胀率预期只有1.4%，而 BCA Research最近提醒客户，通货紧缩的危险依然存在。失业率仍在上升，近期的工资水平实际在下降。

Yet if you had to bet from here, you'd bet on inflation in due course. The government is running massive deficits and has the printing presses at full throttle. That 's the classic recipe.

不过，如果你现在必须打个赌，你应该预计到一定时候会发生通货膨胀。政府现在有大量赤字，印钞机正在全速运转。这是传统的应对方法。

When it comes to house prices, it's true they may not have fallen as far as you might expect.

至于说房价，的确，它跌得可能不像你期待的那么多。

A recent analysis in the Financial Analysts Journal suggested prices nationwide still weren't cheap by historical standards in relation to household incomes.

Financial Analysts Journal最近的一个分析显示，以房价与家庭收入比来衡量，与历史水平相比，全美国范围内的房价仍不便宣。