异类:不一样的成功启示录 第14期:铁的规律

Barnsley went home at night,

回家之后的那个晚上，

and looked at the birth dates of as many professional hockey players as he could find.

巴恩斯利尽可能地收集了许多职业曲棍球运动员的出生日期，

He saw the same pattern.

结果他发现了同样的规律。

Barnsley, his wife, and a colleague, A. H. Thompson, then gathered statistics

于是，巴恩斯利、他的妻子和他的一位同事一起

on every player in the Ontario Junior Hocky League.

对安大略青少年曲棍球联赛的所有球员进行统计分析，

The story was the same.

得到的结果还是如此：

More players were born in January

1月份出生的球员在人数上

than in any other month,

远远超过其他月份出生的球员。

and by a overwhelming margin.

占有压倒性优势。

The second most frequent birth month? February.

排在第二位的呢?2月份。

The third? March.

第三位的呢?3月份。

Barnsley found that there were nearly five and a half times as many Ontario Hocky League players born in January

巴恩斯利发现，在安大略曲棍球联赛中，

as were born in the end of the year, in November.

1月份出生的球员人数几乎是年末12月份出生球员人数的5.5倍。

He looked at the all-star teams of eleven-year-olds and thirteen-year-olds,

巴恩斯利又调查了著名球队中所有11岁和13岁的球员

the young players selected for elite traveling squads. Same story.

这些球员将来是巡回赛的中坚力量，结果依旧如此。

He looked at the composition of the National Hockey League. Same story.

他又调查了曲棍球国家队，结果仍旧毫不例外。

The more he looked, the more Barnsley came to believe that what he was seeing was not a chance of occurance

越是调查，巴恩斯利越是相信，他发现的现象绝非偶然，

but an iron law of Canadian Hockey:

而是加拿大曲棍球运动一项铁的规律：

that anytime you look at a league group of hockey players, the very best of the best,

如果你观察曲棍球运动的那些佼佼者，那些卓越者中的卓越者

you could reliably assume that 40 percent of the players were born tween January and March,

无论何时，你都能够发现，1月至3月出生的球员比例为40%，

30 percent between April and June,

4月至6月出生的球员比例为30%,

20 percent between July and September,

7月至9月出生的球员比例为20%，

and 10 percent between October and December.

10月至12月出生的球员比例为10%。

"In all my years in psychology, I have never run into an effect this large," Barnsley says.

“我从事心理学研究许多年，还从来没有看到过这样明显的例子，”巴恩斯利说，

"You don't even need to do any statistical analysis, you just look at it."

“你用不着去作统计分析，瞧一下就知道。”

What would you have seen if you look at that Medicine Hat roster?

回顾梅迪辛哈特猛虎队的例子，你是否发现，

Seventeen out of the twenty five players on the team

25名球员中，

were born in January, February, March, or April.

有17名球员出生在1月份、2月份、3月份或者是4月份。

Here is the play-by-play for the first two goals in the Memorial Cup final,

以下是纪念杯赛决赛前面两个进球的现场解说，

only this time I've substituted the players birthdays for their names.

只不过这次,我用球员的生日代替了球员的名字。

It no longer sounds like the championship of Canadian junior hockey.

结果，这段解说的内容听起来不再像是加拿大青少年曲棍球冠军争夺战，

It now sounds like a strange sporting ritual

反倒像是一群有着星座符号，

for teenage boys born under the astrologic signs Capricorn, Aquarius, and Pisces.

出生在摩羯座、宝瓶座和双鱼座时段的青少年，进行的一场陌生的体育宗教典礼活动。