研究人员表示，有一种方式可以使未来的干旱减少冲突

研究人员表示，有一种方式可以使未来的干旱减少冲突

It's often assumed that as climate change worsens, so too will the world's risk of violent armed conflict. Over the years, many experts have warned that as weather becomes more extreme and crop yields shrink, we could begin fighting for resources and land with greater frequency and ferocity.

人们通常认为，随着气候变化加剧，世界发生暴力武装冲突的风险也会加大。多年来，许多专家警告说，随着天气变得更加极端，农作物产量下降，我们可能会开始更频繁、更激烈地争夺资源和土地。

Still, there are those who disagree. A new paper now argues the relationship between climate variability and armed conflict is more complex than we often think, especially since humans can change their strategies based on pros and cons.

尽管如此，还是有人持反对意见。一篇新的论文认为，气候变化和武装冲突之间的关系比我们通常认为的要复杂得多，特别是因为人类可以根据利弊来改变自己的战略。

To test these assumptions, Muller-Itten and her colleagues used an opportunity cost model created in 2009 to look at the foundations of the idea that a drier future means more conflict.

为了验证这些假设，Muller-Itten和她的同事使用了一个2009年建立的机会成本模型，来研究一个更干燥的未来意味着更多冲突的观点的基础。

It's important to note that the authors make clear this should not be considered a tool for "quantitative projections" - or predictions - in any specific context. Instead, the paper is trying to investigate the benefits and risks of conflict over water.

值得注意的是，作者明确表示，在任何特定情况下，这都不应被视为“定量预测”或预测的工具。相反，这篇论文试图调查水资源冲突的好处和风险。

Considering two groups of farmers who might fight for control over limited land and resources, the authors tested what would happen under various rainfall scenarios.

考虑到两组可能争夺有限土地和资源的农民，作者测试了在不同降雨情景下会发生什么。

While the findings certainly suggest that droughts can lead to human conflict, there was no support for the idea that these conflicts will always arise along with water scarcity.

虽然研究结果肯定表明干旱会导致人类冲突，但没有证据表明这些冲突会随着缺水而出现。

During anomalous years of low rainfall, the model predicted an increase in conflict. But when there was a systematic decrease in water availability, the model actually predicted a decrease in armed violence.

在降雨量少的反常年份，该模型预测冲突会增加。但当水供应系统出现下降时，该模型实际上预测了武装暴力的减少。

In other words, climate change may come to define a new normal that we adjust to as rational agents. Farmers, for instance, may see the opportunity cost of attack as too high if another bad year of rainfall is expected.

换句话说，气候变化可能会定义一个新的常态，我们作为理性的行动者来适应它。例如，农民可能会认为，如果下一个糟糕的降雨年即将到来，袭击的机会成本就太高了。

The authors emphasise that this is a "strong simplification of reality", but their results do suggest a more complicated reality than the linear relationship we assume exists between drought and conflict.

作者强调，这是“对现实的强烈简化”，但他们的研究结果确实表明，现实比我们假设的干旱与冲突之间存在的线性关系更为复杂。

If precipitation becomes more variable, as climate models predict, conflicts will not necessarily become more frequent, the team concludes.

研究小组得出结论:“如果降水像气候模型预测的那样变得更加多变，那么冲突不一定会变得更加频繁。”

Rather, conflict likelihood can go either up or down, as agents adapt and adjust their response to the new income distribution.

“相反，随着代理人适应和调整他们对新收入分配的反应，冲突的可能性可能上升或下降。”

The research itself is narrow in scope and doesn't account for all the impacts drought can have on human conflict.

这项研究本身的范围很窄，并没有考虑到干旱对人类冲突的所有影响。

In fact, a different study published in Environmental Research Letters this week indicates there are "robust correlations" between seasonal climate and violent crime in the US, and the country can expect up to 3.2 million additional violent crimes between 2020 and 2099, depending on whether we manage to curb our greenhouse gas emissions.

事实上,不同的研究发表在《环境研究快报》本周表示之间有相关性的季节性气候和暴力犯罪在美国,和国家可以预期320万额外的暴力犯罪在2020年至2099年之间,这取决于我们设法遏制温室气体的排放。

What's clear is that findings such as these indicate we truly live in a changing world. As global temperatures and tensions continue to heat up, the more we can predict our future, the better.

很明显，这样的发现表明我们确实生活在一个不断变化的世界。随着全球气温和紧张局势持续升温，我们对未来的预测越多越好。

The study was published in PNAS.

这项研究发表在《美国国家科学院院刊》上。