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气候变化使飓风变得更强

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2020年05月21日

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Climate change is making hurricanes stronger

气候变化使飓风变得更强

If it seems to you that the massive storms rolling in from the ocean every year are causing more and more damage than the years before, you’re not alone. Scientists are noticing the trend, too and a new study published by researchers at the University of Wisconsin Madison and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) lays out the evidence in stark detail.

如果在你看来,每年从海洋滚滚而来的巨大风暴造成的破坏比前几年越来越大,那么你并不孤单。科学家们也注意到了这一趋势,威斯康星大学麦迪逊分校和美国国家海洋和大气管理局(NOAA)的研究人员发表了一项新的研究报告,详细阐述了证据。

With almost four decades of satellite data to go by, the researchers compared the prevalence of particularly damaging hurricanes from year to year, noting a clear uptick in the frequency of major storms.

在将近40年的卫星数据中,研究人员比较了每年特别具有破坏性的飓风的流行情况,注意到主要风暴的频率明显上升。

气候变化使飓风变得更强

The trend toward more powerful storms is quite significant. “The change is about 8 percent per decade,” Jim Kossin, author of the study published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, told CNN. “In other words, during its lifetime, a hurricane is 8 percent more likely to be a major hurricane in this decade compared to the last decade.”

强风暴的趋势相当明显。发表在《美国国家科学院院刊》上的这项研究的作者吉姆·科辛(Jim Kossin)对美国有线电视新闻网(CNN)说:“这一变化大约是每十年8%。换言之,在其生命周期内,与过去十年相比,本十年内飓风成为主要飓风的可能性要高出8%。”

An 8 percent increase in the probability of a major, destructive hurricane on a decade-over-decade basis is absolutely huge. If we extend that out to the future it means we’ll eventually be looking at colossal storms yearly and potentially even multiple high-category hurricanes in a single season. With how long it takes to clean up after such storms (not to mention the lives uproot and lost during the disaster itself), just “dealing with it” will soon be unsustainable.

十年中,一场破坏性的大飓风发生的概率增加了8%,这绝对是严重的。如果我们把这个范围扩展到未来,这意味着我们最终将看到每年都有巨大的风暴,甚至可能在一个季节出现多个高级别飓风。风暴过后要花多长时间才能清理干净(更不用说灾难本身造成的人身财产损失),仅仅“处理它”很快将难以为继。

As scientists have warned for decades, more powerful storms are still thought to be a direct result of rising ocean temperatures due to man-made global warming. A spike in the water temperatures makes it easier for tropical storms to form. As they churn, they are further fueled by the changes in climate and, when they slam into coastal communities at full force, there’s nothing residents can do but run for the hills.

正如科学家几十年来所警告的那样,更强的风暴仍然被认为是人为全球变暖导致海洋温度上升的直接结果。水温的升高使热带风暴的形成变得容易。当它们翻腾的时候,气候的变化进一步推动了它们的前进,当它们全力以赴地冲进沿海社区时,居民们除了向山丘跑去外别无选择。

This study, with its decades of data, draws a very clear link between the changes in ocean temperatures and the likelihood of tropical storms turning into devastating cyclones, hurricanes and typhoons. At the same time, it’s also likely that natural cycles are contributing to the more powerful storms in their own way.

这项研究有几十年的数据,在海洋温度的变化和热带风暴转变为毁灭性气旋、飓风和台风的可能性之间建立了一个非常明确的联系。同时,自然周期也有可能以自己的方式促成更强大的风暴。

“Like all aspects of climate, there is an element of natural variability at play,” Kossin explained. “Our study does not formally disentangle the natural causes from the human-activity causes and the trends we found are most likely due to a combination of both.”

科辛解释说:“就像气候的所有方面一样,自然变化也在起作用。”。“我们的研究并没有正式地将自然因素和人类活动因素分开,我们发现的趋势很可能是两者结合的结果。”

Whatever the combination of causes, it’s clear that hurricanes are getting more and more powerful as the decades pass and we’ve done surprisingly little to mitigate the damage they cause.

不管是什么原因造成的,很明显,随着几十年的过去,飓风的威力越来越大,而我们在减轻飓风造成的损害方面做的却少得惊人。


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