双语新闻：两国方案能否在以色列-哈马斯冲突中幸存

For 30 years, many nations around the world considered two states — one Israeli, one Palestinian — as the way to reach peace in the Middle East.

30年来，世界上许多国家都认为以色列和巴勒斯坦两个国家是实现中东和平的途径。

VOA recently spoke to several experts about ideas for peace.

美国之音最近就和平理念采访了几位专家。

Many people believe two states remain the only path forward even after Hamas' October 7 deadly attack and Israel's strong counter-offensive.

许多人认为，即使在哈马斯10月7日发动致命袭击和以色列的强烈反击之后，两个国家仍然是唯一的前进道路。

Israel says Gaza's Hamas rulers killed about 1,200 people and kidnapped more than 240 in their attack. Gaza's Health Ministry, which is led by Hamas, says more than 10,000 people have died in Israel's counter-offensive.

以色列说，加沙地带的哈马斯统治者在袭击中杀害了大约1200人，绑架了240多人。哈马斯领导的加沙卫生部说，有1万多人在以色列的反攻中丧生。

However, political expert Uriel Abulof of Tel Aviv University believes the loss of life on both sides has not made peace impossible.

然而，特拉维夫大学的政治专家乌列尔·阿布尔夫认为，双方的生命损失并没有使和平成为不可能。

Abulof said the war has created a chance for people to "understand that this is not a conflict between the majority of Israelis and Palestinians, [both of whom] want to live in coexistence, without radical leaders," he said.

阿布尔夫说，这场战争为人们创造了一个机会，让他们“明白，这不是大多数以色列人和巴勒斯坦人之间的冲突，他们都希望在没有激进领导人的情况下共存。”

"On one side you have Hamas, which you have to deal with militarily, and on the other side are (Israeli Prime Minister) Benjamin Netanyahu and his coalition, which need to be dealt with politically," he told VOA.

他对美国之音说:“一边是哈马斯，我们必须用军事手段对付他们;另一边是以色列总理内塔尼亚胡和他的联盟，我们需要用政治手段对付他们。”

Hussein Ibish is with the Arab Gulf States Institute that is based in Washington, D.C. He also believes that a permanent solution to the long conflict is possible only with a two-state model. He said it could be done in steps.

侯赛因·伊比什就职于总部设在华盛顿特区的阿拉伯海湾国家研究所。他还认为，只有两国模式才能永久解决长期冲突。他说这可以分步骤完成。

"Israel must finally and formally accept the Palestinian right to a state and the need for it. The construction and establishment of settlements must stop completely," he said.

“以色列最终必须正式接受巴勒斯坦建国的权利和必要性。定居点的建设和建立必须完全停止。”

Ibish believes Israeli settlements in the West Bank, one of the two Palestinian territories, should be halted. Israel completely withdrew from the Gaza Strip in 2005.

伊比什认为，以色列在约旦河西岸的定居点应该停止，约旦河西岸是两个巴勒斯坦领土之一。以色列于2005年完全撤出加沙地带。

Ibish also said Palestinians must condemn the Hamas attacks of October 7 and promise to end the violence. He said the Palestinian Authority, which governs the West Bank, must be strengthened.

伊比什还说，巴勒斯坦人必须谴责哈马斯10月7日的袭击，并承诺结束暴力。他说，管理约旦河西岸的巴勒斯坦权力机构必须得到加强。

Actionable plan or unrealistic?

可行还是不现实?

Other experts are doubtful. Omer Bartov is a professor of Holocaust and genocide studies at Brown University in the American state of Rhode Island.

其他专家对此表示怀疑。Omer Bartov是美国罗德岛州布朗大学大屠杀和种族灭绝研究教授。

Bartov believes the two-state plan is unrealistic. He said it would create an economically weak Palestine that is dependent on Israel. He added that "because there are between half-a-million and 750,000 Jewish settlers in the West Bank...their removal from the territory would mean civil war."

巴托夫认为两国方案是不现实的。他说，这将造成一个经济脆弱、依赖以色列的巴勒斯坦。他补充说，“因为在约旦河西岸有50万到75万犹太人定居者……把他们赶出领土将意味着内战。”

He also notes there are 2 million Palestinians who live in Israel.

他还指出，有200万巴勒斯坦人生活在以色列。

Israel captured the West Bank, along with East Jerusalem, from Jordan in the Six-Day War of 1967. It took Gaza from Egypt in the same war but withdrew from the territory.

以色列在1967年的六日战争中从约旦手中夺取了约旦河西岸和东耶路撒冷。在同一场战争中，以色列从埃及手中夺取了加沙，但后来又撤出了该地区。

Bartov said another possibility is a confederation of Palestinian-Israeli states within the 1967 borders.

巴托夫说，另一种可能性是在1967年边界内建立巴以邦联。

A confederated state, he said, would permit Palestinian refugees to return to territories their ancestors left when Israel was created. "Jerusalem could be the common capital," he said.

他说，一个邦联国家将允许巴勒斯坦难民回到他们的祖先在以色列建国时离开的领土。“耶路撒冷可以成为共同的首都，”他说。

"There would be a difference between citizenship and residence," said Bartov. "Jewish settlers could continue to live in the Palestinian state but behave according to its regulations. And the Palestinians could return from exile..."

巴托夫说:“公民权和居住权会有所不同。“犹太定居者可以继续在巴勒斯坦国生活，但要遵守其规定。巴勒斯坦人也可以从流亡中回归……”

However, he said the single-state solution seems impossible because of the current war.

然而，他说，由于目前的战争，单一国家的解决方案似乎是不可能的。

A part for the U.S.

一部分美国的因素

Ibish of the Arab Gulf States Institute said U.S. involvement would be important to any permanent solution.

阿拉伯海湾国家研究所的伊比什说，美国的参与对任何永久性解决方案都很重要。

He said the U.S. is the only country with the influence to guarantee a two-state peace agreement. However, he said, there is a large political cost in the U.S. to put too much pressure on Israel.

他说，美国是唯一有影响力保证两国和平协议的国家。然而，他说，对以色列施加太大压力会让美国付出巨大的政治代价。

Bartov of Brown University agreed that no plan is possible without the U.S. support on which Israel depends politically and militarily.

布朗大学的巴托夫也认为，没有美国的支持，任何计划都不可能实现，而以色列在政治和军事上都依赖美国的支持。

Without it, he suggested, the endless warfare would only continue.

他暗示，没有它，无休止的战争只会继续下去。

Israelis and Palestinians "really don't feel there is hope. That's why the perspective must be changed — how to make these two groups of people live side by side, not apart."

以色列人和巴勒斯坦人“真的觉得没有希望。这就是为什么必须改变观点——如何让这两群人生活在一起，而不是分开。”