听力课堂TED音频栏目主要包括TED演讲的音频MP3及中英双语文稿，供各位英语爱好者学习使用。本文主要内容为演讲MP3+双语文稿:如何永久淘汰化石燃料，希望你会喜欢！

【主讲人】Tzeporah Berman
气候运动家、《化石燃料不扩散条约倡议》主席、Stand.Earth（非营利性环保组织）国际项目主管

【演讲主题】The bad math of the fossil fuel industry
虽然我们目前有足够的化石燃料来进行过渡，但石油、天然气和煤炭的生产和勘探仍在继续。因此她提出一条可持续发展的道路：《化石燃料不扩散条约倡议》，以永久淘汰化石燃料。

【中英文稿】

Canada's great northern forests, they're the place of my heart. They hold 25 percent of the Earth's wetlands. And they're the nesting and breeding ground of the majority of North America's songbirds. They're the traditional territories of hundreds of Indigenous nations. And my climate journey started here as a forest activist a long time ago.

加拿大北部的森林， 是我的心之所属。 它们占地球25%的湿地， 也是北美大部分 鸣禽的筑巢和繁殖地。 它们是数百个 土著民族的传统领地。 我在很久以前，作为一名森林活动家， 在这里开始了我的气候之旅。

I was horrified that Canada's old-growth forests are being logged. They're burning. They're being destroyed by beetle infestations. But also because so much of the forest is under threat because of what lies under it. Oil.

加拿大的原始森林被砍伐，让我无比震惊。 它们被大火燃烧。 它们被甲虫的侵扰所破坏。 另外，森林下面埋藏的东西 同样也使森林受到巨大威胁。 石油。

At the time, I thought that Canada's failure to reduce emissions was because we had a government that just didn't believe in climate change. But then in 2015, we elected a new government. And Prime Minister Trudeau came to Paris and with his hand on his heart, he said, "Canada's back." And he went home to introduce some really good climate policy, carbon pricing. And our emissions didn't go down. And the government continued to green-light and even subsidize new oil sands, pipelines and fracking.

当时，我认为加拿大减排失败 是因为我们的政府 不相信气候变化。 但在2015年， 我们选出了一个新政府。 特鲁多总理来到巴黎， 把手放在胸口， 说：“加拿大重回绿色。” 他回国后提出了一些非常好的气候政策， 其中包括碳定价。 但我们的碳排放量并没有减少。 政府继续为开发新油砂、管道 以及使用水力压裂法开采天然气开绿灯， 甚至资助他们。

And that, for me, was the moment when I realized where one of the big problems lie. Our governments are regulating emissions but not the production of fossil fuels.

这个时候，对我而言， 我意识到了这里的 一个大问题出在哪里。 我们的政府监管碳排放， 但没有监管化石燃料的生产。

You see, climate policy and agreements, they are complicated, but what's simple is that the majority of emissions that are trapped in our atmosphere today, well, they come from three products: oil, gas and coal. For decades, our countries have been negotiating targets. But behind our backs, the fossil fuel industry has been growing production and locking in further emissions.

这么说吧，气候政策和协议是复杂的， 但简单的是， 今天滞留在我们大气中的 大部分的碳排放， 它们来自三种产品： 石油，天然气，和煤炭。 几十年来，我们国家一直在商量减排目标。 但在我们背后，化石燃料行业 一直在增加产量， 并打算进一步增加排放。

I started reaching out to climate policy experts from around the world because I wanted to understand what frameworks exist to negotiate who gets to produce what and how much; what policies help governments regulate, constrain the production side of fossil fuels. I found out that very few do.

我开始接触世界各地的气候政策专家， 因为我想了解，存在哪些框架， 可以让我们用来谈判 谁可以生产什么以及生产多少； 哪些政策有助于政府监管 和限制化石燃料的生产。 我发现很少有人这样做。

I will never forget the day that I sat with the Paris Agreement and I searched for the words fossil fuels, oil, gas, coal. They didn't appear. Not even once in the world's climate agreement.

我永远不会忘记那一天， 我埋头阅读“巴黎协定” 搜索着一些关键词： 化石燃料、 石油、天然气、煤炭。 他们没有出现。 在我们的世界气候协议中 连一次都没有出现。

The fossil fuel industry has been successful in making itself invisible. I started reaching out and met with, for several years, the CEOs of major oil companies because I wanted to understand what these CEOs see when they read the science. How can they justify expanding oil and gas at this moment in our history? And also because I believe that there are good people everywhere. There are good people stuck in some bad systems.

化石燃料工业成功地让自己隐形了。 几年来，我开始接触 管理大型石油公司的首席执行官， 因为我想知道 这些首席执行官们 在阅读科学时看到了什么。 他们怎么能在我们历史上的这个时刻 为扩张开采石油和天然气辩护呢? 也因为我相信到处都有好人。 有些好人只是被困在一些糟糕的系统里。

What I learned is that they know. They know that we're going to have to wind down fossil fuel production. But they are all holding out hope that they will be the last barrel sold. Or that unproven technologies, like carbon capture and storage, will allow them to continue to increase production.

我了解到的是，他们的确知道。 他们知道我们将不得不减少 化石燃料的生产。 但他们都抱着希望， 希望自己的公司能卖出最后一桶油。 或者希望未经验证的技术， 如碳捕获和存储， 将使他们继续增加产量。

The problem is the math just doesn't add up. We are currently on track today to produce 120 percent more fossil fuels in the next decade than the world should burn if we want to stay below 1.5 degrees Celsius. In fact, even if we phased out coal overnight, oil and gas in existing projects would take us beyond 1.5 degrees.

问题是那些计算并不合理。 我们想要使全球气温升高 保持在 1.5 摄氏度以下， 并相应地计算出了 化石燃料生产的目标值。 但按照目前的情况， 我们在未来十年内预计生产的 化石燃料会比目标值多120%。 事实上，即使我们在一夜之间淘汰煤炭， 现有的石油和天然气项目 仍会让我们的温度升高超过1.5度。

For decades, climate policy has been designed on a theory that we are going to reduce demand, that the price of carbon is going to go up, and the markets turbocharged by alternatives -- wind and solar, now cheaper than fossil fuels -- well, the markets are going to constrain supply. The problem is it's not happening. Not fast enough to keep us safe. Why? Because the markets today are distorted, they're distorted by tax breaks and fossil-fuel subsidies, but also because of the power of the fossil fuel industry. The influence of the industry, who no longer deny climate change. But they have moved from denial to delusion: that technologies that are not yet proven at scale, that are not yet cost-competitive -- are going to fix it. In the future.

几十年来，气候政策的设计 一直基于这样一个理论: 就是我们将减少碳排放的需求， 碳价格将上涨， 而现在比化石燃料 更便宜的风能和太阳能 将被推动， 市场就会限制碳排放的供应。 问题是它没有发生。 发生得不够快，无法保证我们的安全。 为什么？ 因为今天的市场被扭曲了， 它们被税收减免和化石燃料补贴扭曲了， 也被化石燃料行业所影响。 当下化石燃料行业 不再否认气候变化， 但它们将否认变成了妄想： 那些尚未被大规模验证、 成本竞争力还不强的技术 将在未来 解决气候恶化。

I've spent 30 years running environmental campaigns, I've advised multiple governments on climate policy, I’ve been arrested on the blockades, and I've negotiated in the boardrooms of some of the largest banks and corporations in the world. And when I figured out that we don't have a framework for constraining the production of fossil fuels, I thought I was crazy. And so did some of my colleagues. But here's the thing. Today we are granting permits, we are spending trillions of dollars to increase the production of products that we say we're transitioning off of. It's not a transition if we're still growing the problem. We have more than enough fossil fuels in existing installations, even if we stopped expansion today, of oil, gas and coal in existing projects to use while we carefully manage a phasedown. And so the world is spending its intellectual, its financial, its technical capital to dig up stuff that we know we can't burn, and if we do, it will burn us.

我花了30年的时间开展环境运动， 为多个政府提供气候政策方面的建议； 我曾因尝试封锁燃料运输而被捕， 我也曾在一些世界上 最大的银行和公司的 会议室里谈判过。 所以当我发现我们 没有一个框架来限制 化石燃料生产时， 我以为我疯了； 我的一些同事也是这么想的。 但这也是问题所在。 我们现如今正在批准许可， 正在花数万亿美元 来增加那些我们打算 逐步脱钩的产品的产量。 如果问题还在扩大， 那它就不算真正意义上脱钩。 即使我们今天停止扩张 开采石油、天然气和煤炭， 并同时谨慎地逐步减少使用它们， 我们现有设施中的化石燃料仍然绰绰有余。 因此，世界正在花费它的脑力、 财力和技术资本， 去挖掘那些我们都知道 不应该燃烧的东西， 而且如果燃烧它们， 会害了我们。

So what do we do? A year ago, a group of academics, advocates, scientists and former diplomats came together to create the Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty Initiative to create the missing framework so countries can negotiate a wind down of fossil fuels in a way that is fair, in a way that is equitable. Shockingly, one of the things we found out is that we don't have accounting or transparency right now on who's producing what and how much. So work is now underway to create a global registry of fossil fuel production and reserves.

所以我们应该怎么做？ 一年前，一群学者、倡导人士、 科学家和前外交官共同撰写了 《化石燃料不扩散条约倡议》 （FFNPT） 以创建缺失的框架。 这样一来，国家之间就可以 用一种公平公正的方式， 协商减少化石燃料的使用。 但令人震惊的是，我们发现 在关于谁在生产什么 和生产多少上， 各国的信息既不公开也不透明。 因此，我们目前正在建立一个 全球化石燃料生产和储备的登记处。

We are also at work creating the principles of equity that have to underlie a treaty because the challenges to stop the expansion of fossil fuels in some countries are going to be so different than in other countries. There are countries today in the developing world, like Ecuador, that are drilling for new oil in the heart of the Amazon just to feed their debt. So no, we cannot rely just on the markets to constrain fossil fuel production. If we do, it will be an unmanaged decline instead of a managed decline, and more people will suffer.

我们也在努力制定 必须作为条约基础的公平原则， 因为在某些国家阻止化石燃料开采 将比在另一些国家难得多。 如今，像厄瓜多尔 这样的发展中国家， 在亚马逊丛林中心 开采新石油， 只为了偿还债务。 所以，不， 我们不能仅仅 依靠市场来限制化石燃料的生产。 如果我们这样做，燃料产量的下降 将变得非常不可控， 从而使更多人受到牵连和损失。

We need financial leadership at this moment. We need divestment at this moment. But we can’t let governments off the hook. The wealthy countries need to act first. That means Canada and the US and Norway can't do more oil drilling and fracking and new pipelines. It means that the UK cannot call itself a climate leader right now and build the Cambo oil field.

此时此刻，我们需要有人能够领导财政。 我们现在需要撤资。 但我们不能让政府逃脱责任。 富裕国家需要首先采取行动。 这意味着加拿大、美国和挪威 不能进行更多的石油钻探、 水力压裂开采和新管道建设。 英国也不能一边称自己为气候领导者， 一边建设坎博油田。

So here's the good news. Support for the treaty is growing. Every day, I'm so excited to turn on my computer. 101 Nobel laureates have endorsed the principles of a fossil fuel treaty. Cities from around the world are passing motions at their city councils to endorse a fossil fuel treaty: Sydney, Barcelona, LA, Vancouver. Over 100 elected officials from around the world, from 20 countries starting in the global South have endorsed the principles of a fossil fuel treaty. Over 2,000 scientists have now endorsed the principles of the Fossil Fuel Treaty. Indigenous leaders, youth groups, over 800 civil society organizations who have been fighting fossil fuel projects for decades are now calling on their governments to negotiate a treaty to keep it in the ground.

那么好消息来了。 对该条约的支持正在增加。 我每天都很期待打开电脑。 101位诺贝尔奖得主都支持《化石燃料不扩散条约》。 悉尼，巴塞罗那，洛杉矶， 温哥华等世界各地的城市 也正积极地在市议会上进行提议， 支持化石燃料不扩散条约。 自南半球起，全世界中 来自20个国家的100多名民选官员 都支持化石燃料不扩散条约的原则。 目前已有2000多名科学家赞同 《化石燃料条约》的原则。 几十年来，土著领导人、青年团体 和800多个民间社会组织 一直在反对化石燃料项目； 他们现在也呼吁政府 加紧谈判达成协议 让化石燃料在地下长眠。

Some of the criticism we get is that it's too big, it's unfeasible, it'll take too long. But the same was erroneously said about weapons treaties. For me, the answer is we don't have time for more of the same. We know that oil-producing nations are not likely to embrace the Fossil Fuel Treaty. But what we've learned from studying landmines, what we've learned from studying nuclear, is that the journey matters. Just proposing a fossil fuel treaty is creating new conversations and new climate ambition.

我们得到的一些批评是： 这个项目太大了，不现实， 需要太长时间。 但关于武器条约， 人们也错误地提出这样的评论。 我觉得我们没有时间 再重复同样的错误讨论了。 我们知道，石油生产国 不太可能接受 化石燃料不扩散条约。 但我们从研究地雷 和研究核事故中学到的是， 过程很重要。 仅仅是提出一项化石燃料条约， 就能引发新的对话和新的气候追求。

A fossil fuel treaty will help us wind down the production of fossil fuels. It will provide a complement and help us achieve the goals of the Paris accord. It is a big, bold new idea. But at this moment in history, we need some big, bold new ideas.

化石燃料条约将帮助我们 减少化石燃料的生产。 这是对《巴黎协定》所追求 目标的补充和帮助。 这是一个崭新、大胆的想法。 但我们在这个历史节点上， 需要一些崭新、大胆的想法。

In 2021, millions of people lost their homes. Thousands of people lost their lives as the fires and the floods and the heat waves swept our planet. I know that this can seem overwhelming. But we are capable of enormous change in our lifetimes.

2021年，数百万人失去了他们的家。 成千上万人在大火、洪灾和 热浪肆虐时失去了生命。 我知道这看起来有点难以承受， 但我们有能力在有限的生命里 做出巨大的改变。

I had a conversation with my grandmother once when I was out of hope. Feeling overwhelmed. And she said to me, "Do you understand how much the world has changed in my lifetime?" She said, "When your mother was growing up, we didn't have cell phones or computers. We had a phone on the wall, it was a party line. When it rang twice, it was for us." She said, "I didn't know anyone who'd ever been on a plane." She told me that the world had entirely changed in her lifetime. She said, "How we travel, how we communicate, and it will in yours as well."

记得有一次在我绝望的时候， 我和我的奶奶聊了几句。 我当时不知所措。 她对我说： “你知道在我的一生中， 世界发生了多大的变化吗?” 她说:“在你妈妈小时候， 我们还没有手机或电脑。 我们的墙上有个挂壁电话，还是共线的。 铃响两次才是打给我们的。” 她说：“我当时不认识有谁坐过飞机。” 她告诉我，在她的有生之年， 世界发生了翻天覆地的变化。 她说，“我们如何旅行，如何交流， 到你们这一代也一样会变。”

So when I do this work every day for a fossil fuel treaty, I'm holding on to the idea that one day I'm going to be sitting with my grandchildren, I'm going to be telling them about this time in our history when we clawed at the last primary forest to get at the oil. This crazy time in our history when we used to fill our cars with gas, heat our homes with gas. And they, well, they will barely believe me, because the world will be such a different place.

所以当我每天为推进化石燃料条约而奋斗时, 我也期盼着， 希望有一天能告诉我的孙辈们， 我要告诉他们 当年我们是如何为了石油 向最后一片原始森林伸出魔爪的。 历史里曾有一个疯狂的年代， 人们会给车加油， 用天然气取暖。 而他们， 哈哈，他们几乎不会相信我， 因为那时的世界将是 一个非常不同的地方。

Thank you.

谢谢大家。