苹果手表的未来？

苹果手表的未来？

自苹果发售iWatch以来，业界和消费者大都对该产品持平淡甚至负面的评价。虽然苹果并没有对外公布其手表业务的上半年销售额，但业内人士均对其达到目标销售额的可能表示怀疑。苹果的这一次可穿戴式智能设备的尝试，未来的发展到底如何？现在，还是个未知数。

测试中可能遇到的词汇和知识：

anecdotally 传闻地、据传

scepticism 怀疑主义、怀疑态度

device 装置

debut 首次出场

Doubts remain over prospects of Apple Watch（808words）

By Tim Bradshaw

Apple's launch of its Watch in April was its most significant product introduction since the iPad made its debut five years ago.

But,three months in,the response from analysts and consumers bears a greater resemblance to the launch of the iPhone than to the more enthusiastic reception that first greeted the iPad. Despite its subsequent success the iPhone was initially met by confusion and widespread doubts about its prospects.

With no sales figures from Apple to act as a guide,speculation about the Watch's performance has run wild. Estimates for sales so far range between 2m and 5m,with first-year sales pegged anywhere between 10m and 30m.

Alongside the prospects for future iPhone growth in emerging markets such as China,analysts will be listening keenly for any hints about Watch sales during Tuesday's quarterly earnings call.

Most analysts caution that it is too early to assess its potential,especially in the slow-selling summer months before holiday sales ramp up. But after mixed reviews from the tech press and concerns that the Watch's demonstration tables in Apple Stores have been relatively quiet compared with the iPad's arrival,some analysts are already reining in their forecasts.

Andy Hargreaves,a Pacific Crest analyst,said in a recent note that while initial demand was “very strong”,analysis of online search query volume suggested consumer interest has since fallen “below the iPod（with an ‘o')”.

“Our confidence is declining,which suggests risk to our 2016 estimate of 24m[sales]is increasing,” he added.

Ben Wood,analyst at CCS Insight,concedes that his initial estimate of 20m sales by the end of this year may be “a little optimistic”.

“Is momentum flagging?It feels to me anecdotally it is in the US and UK,” he said,noting that it was nonetheless outselling rival smartwatches from the likes of Samsung,LG and Motorola.

Some potential customers were put off by the initial need to make a reservation to try the Watch in-store and having to wait weeks to buy online,due to supply constraints,said James McQuivey of Forrester Research,who forecasts 10m units sold this year.

Those early supply problems have been solved,but some see the plentiful stock in US Apple Stores as a sign of low demand. By contrast,the iPad was at the time the fastest-selling new tech product ever,with 3m units shifted in its first 80 days.

“The fact is we don't need Watches the way we needed tablets,” Mr.Mc Quivey said,pointing out that they filled a gap between smartphones and traditional PCs.

Comments from early Watch customers echo that perspective. Cathrine Andersen,a Danish tech entrepreneur working in San Francisco,found her Apple Watch a “disappointment” and returned it after a week.

“I work in an innovation unit of a big tech company so I'm used to trying out new things. I was really excited about the Apple Watch,” she said. But after unpacking it,she struggled to set up and personalise the device.

“I felt so stupid. It was a very atypical Apple experience for me,” she said. “I expected it to work as soon as I put it on my wrist and it just didn't.”

Wolfgang Blau,executive director of digital strategy at Guardian News & Media,wishes he had not bought the Apple Watch.

“There were many issues around the first iPhone as well,” he wrote on Facebook. “But you could at least make a phone call with it,while the Apple Watch is not even a decent watch.”

While other buyers have been more enthusiastic,the sense that Apple Watch has underwhelmed emerges from many conversations in Silicon Valley,from entrepreneurs and investors to app developers. One venture capitalist who had tweeted bold predictions for the Watch before its launch said he had already stopped wearing his and heard that apps made by his portfolio companies had received limited usage. Apple hopes to address problems with apps through a forthcoming software update.

However,according to a study by tech analyst group Creative Strategies and Wristly,a start-up which polls a panel of more than 1,000 Watch owners weekly,Apple's smart watch is more popular with people outside the tech bubble than it is among that more traditional community of early adopters.

Wristly found that below half of the buyers it surveyed were tech “insiders” or app developers,with the majority working in other industries.

Many first-generation tech products suffer scepticism in their early days. Ms Andersen says she would consider buying the second version of the Apple Watch,which sources familiar with Apple's plans say is likely to emerge in the first half of next year.

Apple declined to comment on the Watch's sales.

Version one “was a good try”,John Maeda,design partner at Kleiner Perkins Caufield& Byers,said at Fortune's Brainstorm Tech conference last week. “Let's see what comes next.”