金融时报:全球经济走向何方

全球经济走向何方

油价下跌将会提振经济，但也导致了通胀水平急剧下降，同时欧洲央行出台量化宽松的前景也为全球经济前景蒙上了一层不确定性。

测试中可能遇到的词汇和知识：

precipitous鲁莽的，险峻的[prɪˈsɪpɪtəs]

choppy起伏的['tʃɒpɪ]

grist谷物[ɡrɪst]

sovereign bond主权债券

The economy is worse than you hoped but better than you think (893 words)

by Gavyn Davies, January 16, 2015 7:15 pm Though Europe faces deflation, the fall in oil price is a boon for consumers

The oil price has fallen by more than half in a little over six months, and you might expect investors to be cheering. Perhaps they would have been — had the result not been a precipitous drop in inflation.

A flight to the safety of government bonds has caused yields to fall lower than they have been at any time other than the darkest days of the euro crises of 2012. Although stock markets are still only 3.5 per cent from their all time highs, they have become a lot choppier. Prices are bouncing up and down, suggesting investors have become more nervous about the prospects for economic growth.

Economists believe the fall in the oil price was triggered mainly by an increase in the supply of oil, following a rise in US production, and the decision by Opec to keep output high. Standard economic models suggest this should boost global output by between 0.5 and 1 per cent this year, if present oil prices are maintained. There will be significant losses among oil producers — but even bigger gains to oil consuming households and businesses.

Investors initially accepted this, sending equity prices higher outside the energy sector. But lately, they have become sceptical, as inflation expectations have fallen off a cliff — for reasons that are not obvious, if the oil shock really is a boon for economic growth.

The answer lies in the eurozone. Although lower oil prices should have boosted growth there, the economy keeps crawling along with growth of less than 1 per cent, and inflation expectations have been torn loose from the European Central Bank's inflation target of below but close to 2 per cent. A deflationary process — in which consumers put off spending money because they expect prices to fall, companies cut prices to lure people into the shops, and households sit tight because their expectations have been confirmed — may be taking an inexorable grip on the single currency. The consequences would be disastrous, and far-reaching.

Mario Draghi, the ECB president, is aware of this threat, and has strongly hinted that the central bank will begin quantitative easing — that is, purchasing sovereign bonds with newly created money — at its meeting this coming Thursday. This week the European Court of Justice indicated that such bond purchases are likely to be deemed legal under the EU treaties, subject perhaps to some minor safeguards.

Meanwhile, the Swiss National Bank unexpectedly decided last Thursday to allow its currency to move freely instead of keeping its value below a predetermined cap. This has been taken as a signal that Swiss central bankers are unwilling to soften the fall in the value of the euro that is likely to occur when the ECB starts buying bonds. The alternative was to print Swiss francs in large quantities and use them to buy euros, so that — relative to one another, at least — the value of the two currencies would stay the same. But a glut of francs would have created the risk of instability in the Swiss financial system, and it would have exposed the SNB to losses on its foreign exchange reserves if it had been forced to backtrack later on.

Whatever the motives, the SNB's action has added to the jitters in financial markets. Its volte face leaves traders wondering whether they can take central bankers at their word when they promise unlimited intervention to meet an announced goal. Many investors are becoming sceptical about the efficacy of QE, even in “unlimited” quantities. This will be grist to their mill.

It will not, however, stop Mr Draghi from announcing sovereign bond purchases next Thursday — probably about €500bn worth. Adding in purchases of private-sector assets that have already been announced, this is enough to swell the ECB balance sheet by €750bn — the target he has previously indicated. But two large uncertainties remain.

First, we do not know whether the two German members of the ECB governing council, Jens Weidmann and Sabine Lautenschläger, will support QE in any form. And if they do, we also do not know whether they will insist that, if the ECB bears losses on sovereign bonds, they should be paid for by the country concerned. (Many economists believe that such an insistence would make QE far less effective, arguing that losses should instead be “mutualised” on the ECB balance sheet and spread out among the eurozone members.) Mr Draghi faces a crucial choice: does he seek to achieve unanimity even at the cost of undermining the size and efficacy of his QE programme?

Then there is the worry that the American economy may be in trouble. The dollar has been rising and it will rise further when the eurozone embarks on QE. This will damp growth, offsetting the boost from lower oil prices. Statistical models suggest that the real growth rate has slowed from 4 per cent in November to 3 per cent in January. But it is too early to turn pessimistic about America. The slowdown is roughly what the Federal Reserve expected. Joblessness is still coming down, and consumer confidence is very robust.

Last week, Christine Lagarde, managing director of the International Monetary Fund, complained that global growth is “lopsided”, because it is too reliant on lower oil prices and the US recovery. This is clearly true. But do not lose sight of the rays of optimism amid the recent gloom.

请根据你所读到的文章内容，完成以下自测题目：

1.What caused the yield of government bond to fall lower than they have been at any time other than the days of euro crises of 2012？

A.The U.S quit the QEIII.

B.The ECB announced QE in the eurozone.

C.Capital fled to the government bond.

D.Interest rate fluctuated too frequently.

答案(1)

2.According to the article, which of the statement below is true？

A.The stock price stayed steady only 3.5 per cent from their all time highs.

B.The fall in the oil price was triggered only by an increase in the supply of oil.

C.Investors have become more confident about the prospects for economic growth.

D.What caused the fall in the oil price was the eurozone.

答案(2)

3.According to paragraph 5, if the households expect that the prices of goods will fall in the future, what action will they take?

A.They will tend to buy more goods now.

B.They will tend to save money now to buy more in the future..

C.They will tend to exchange their money into another kind of currency.

D.They may withdraw money from banks.

答案(3)

4.According the article, which of the statements below is not true?

A.Mario Draghi hinted that the central bank will begin quantitative easing.

B.Swiss National Bank decided not to keep its exchange rate below a predetermined cap

C.Quantitative easing is to set a floating exchange rate.

D.Many investors are becoming doubtful about the efficacy of QE.

答案(4)

5.According to the article, for Mario Draghi's QE decision, what factors were uncertain?

A.The attitude of two German members of ECB governing councils and American economy.

B.The oil price and American economy.

C.C.The volume of FDI and the attitude of two German members of ECB governing councils.

D.D.The attitude of two German members of ECB governing councils and the oil price.

答案(5)

* * *

(1)答案：C.Capital fled to the government bond.

解释：文中第二段明确提到是资金涌入政府债券，使政府债券的收益率降到了2012年欧元危机以来的冰点。

(2)答案：D.What caused the fall in the oil price was the eurozone.

解释：第四段反驳了原先供给增加使石油降低的观点，第五段给出了解释：石油降价的原因是欧元区。

(3)答案：B.They will tend to save money now to buy more in the future..

解释：文章第五段以及经济学原理告诉我们，如果消费者预期商品价格今后会下降，他们会减少现在的需求从而未来能以更低价格买到更多商品。

(4)答案：C.Quantitative easing is to set a floating exchange rate.

解释：文章第六段以及经济学常识告诉我们，量化宽松是央行购买债券以增加流动性的行为，这是货币政策工具。

(5)答案：A.The attitude of two German members of ECB governing councils and American economy.

解释：文章10、11段写道不确定性的两个来源分别于1.欧洲央行治理委员会的两名德国委员延斯·魏德曼(Jens Weidmann)和萨拜因·劳滕施莱格(Sabine Lautenschläger)是否支持任何形式的量化宽松；2.美国经济可能会出问题。