金融时报:最低工资创造就业？

最低工资创造就业？

尽管就业形势严峻，奥巴马依然高调希望最低工资提升24%至每小时9美元，他的经济顾问阿伦·克鲁格曾有研究认为：最低工资不仅不消灭、反而会增加就业机会。FT专栏作家蒂姆·哈福德说：如果一个年轻人不能创造足够的价值来拿足以糊口的薪水，那么无论我们怎样调整最低工资，都于事无补。他本人、他待过的学校、他所处的社会，都面临着更大的问题。

测试中可能遇到的词汇和知识：

Institute for Economic Affairs 英国经济事务研究所IEA，由哈耶克和他的《通往奴役之路》一书启发建立。

Labour 英国工党

grumbler ['grʌmblə] 抱怨的人

emulate ['emjʊleɪt] 模仿

Low Pay Commission 低薪委员会，职责是研究和给英国政府建议最低工资政策。

Can the minimum wage create jobs? (627 words)

By Tim Harford

If one cannot produce enough of value to justify being paid a living wage, nothing we do to the minimum wage will help

One million unemployed young people. It had been coming for a while, but when the news broke in November that the number of 16- to 24-year-olds looking for work had reached seven figures, the number retained its power to shock.

Almost 300,000 students seeking part-time work are included in the total, and although directly comparable data are not available, the situation was almost certainly worse in the 1980s. Nevertheless, given the evidence that graduating during a recession can affect one's earnings for far longer than the recession itself, the case for doing something looks urgent. But what?

To some, such as the Institute for Economic Affairs, the answer is simple: abolish the minimum wage. This is unlikely. Minimum wages gradually fell into disuse after Winston Churchill introduced a minimum wage system in 1909. Yet after Labour introduced a national minimum wage in 1999, grumblers have kept a low profile. David Cameron said in 2005 that it had been a success, while in 2008 George Osborne said that “Modern Conservatives acknowledge the fairness of a minimum wage.”

But that is an odd comment, because the case against the minimum wage was always that the law itself was unfair. A minimum wage forbids workers to sell their labour below a certain price, and therefore would be expected to create unemployment for low-productivity workers. Employers use machines instead.

The theoretical argument is simple and compelling. But is it true? Back in 1994 a remarkable article was published by economists David Card and Alan Krueger. They performed a statistical analysis and concluded that not only did the minimum wage not cost jobs – it might even create them. Amazing.

Extraordinary claims demand extraordinary evidence, and while many economists casually dismissed Card and Krueger, commentators on the left also seized uncritically on the results. Both attitudes are a shame because the research paper is too interesting to ignore. Card and Krueger were pioneers in using what economists call a “natural experiment”: the rise of minimum wages in New Jersey, while in neighbouring Pennsylvania they did not move. They surveyed more than 400 fast-food restaurants in New Jersey and east Pennsylvania and found no great difference between employment trends. Nor did higher-wage establishments display different employment trends to those who had to raise wages relative to the minimum. These methods broke new ground and have been much emulated.

It's fair to say that not every statistical study has come to the same conclusion. But why might Card and Krueger be right in some cases? If employers have market power in the labour market then they might actually offer a lower wage than the balance of competitive supply and demand would produce. Some workers would rather keep looking or sign up for welfare payments, and so employment is lower at this level. Introduce a minimum wage and both wages and employment increase, while profits fall.

Of course this analysis is time and place specific. Since its introduction in the UK, the minimum wage has outpaced consumer price inflation by about 20 per cent. Even if a minimum wage can offer income for the poor without destroying jobs, it would be complacent to assume this will remain true regardless of economic conditions. The Low Pay Commission has been allowing the minimum wage for younger workers to lag behind. No wonder.

But if a young adult cannot produce enough of value to justify being paid a living wage, nothing we do to the minimum wage will help. He, the institutions which trained him and the society in which he lives, have far bigger problems.

请根据你所读到的文章内容，完成以下自测题目：

1.Who is against the minimum wage system?

A.Prime Minister David Cameron.

B.Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne.

C.Institute of Economic Affairs(IEA).

D.None of above.

答案(1)

2.What is the main point against minimum wages?

A.Minimum wages gradually fell into disuse.

B.They are unfair for the least skilled workers.

C.Employers would prefer machines instead of people.

D.They encourage people signing up for welfare payments.

答案(2)

3.What is correct about the “amazing” research by David Card and Alan Krueger?

A.They pioneered a “natural experiment”.

B.They surveyed 400 different professions.

C.Higher minimum wage in New Jersey resulted in more jobs.

D.Higher-wage jobs displayed different trends to lower-wage jobs.

答案(3)

4.What would the writer not say to president Obama about the proposal to increase America's minimum wage?

A.It would be a disaster if implimented.

B.Its consequences are not clear.

C.There are more pressing problems to attend to.

D.Perhaps you could learn from UK's experience.

答案(4)

* * *

(1)答案: C.Institute of Economic Affairs(IEA).

解释：IEA对失业问题开出的药方是：取消最低工资。而卡梅伦在2005年说，it had been a success，奥斯本在2008年说“Modern Conservatives acknowledge the fairness of a minimum wage.”

(2)答案：：B.They are unfair for the least skilled workers.

解释：1909年，当时还是自由党成员的温斯顿·丘吉尔议员发起和设立了最低工资制度，但并未被广泛应用。 BCD都是反对最低工资的主要论点，文章第四段提到，最首要的是B。

(3)答案：A.They pioneered a “natural experiment”.

解释：经济学研究中常常很难剥离繁杂的各种变量，从而单独考察一个变量的影响，“natural experiment”可以解决这个问题。 B其实是调查了400家快餐店，C其实是最低工资更高的新泽西与邻州宾夕法尼亚在快餐行业的就业上没有什么差别。D其实也是没有差别，也就是说低收入群体并未因最低工资提高而损失就业机会。

(4)答案：A

解释：作者说，It's fair to say that not every statistical study has come to the same conclusion.也就是说在不同的时候、不同的地方做研究，结果是不一样的。如果奥巴马的方案得到通过，结果会怎样很难说。也就是A是作者不会对总统说的。BC显然是合理的。D也正确，文章倒数第二段说，英国的低薪委员会允许最低工资对年轻人降低一些，毕竟，他们更急需的是工作经验。这可以被美国借鉴。

英国《金融时报》原文阅读精选集