金融时报:世界末日的生存之道

世界末日的生存之道

当我那杞人忧天的丈夫提出在家里囤积净水药片、脱水食品和急救抗生素以防大难临头时，我感到荒谬可笑。但如今，看到特朗普和金正恩互放狠话、世界各地不时出现的极端天气，以及科学家对地磁暴的预测，我突然意识到，活命主义者的担忧并不是没有道理的。

测试中可能遇到的词汇和知识：

doomsday['duːmzdeɪ] n.世界末日

antibiotic [ˌæntibaɪ'ɒtɪk] n.抗生素

apocalyptic [əˌpɒkə'lɪptɪk/ adj. 预示灾祸的

bunker['bʌŋkə(r)] n.煤仓，掩体

stockpile['stɒkpaɪl] vt.储备，储存

roaming['rəʊmɪŋ] n.漫游的

preposterous[prɪ'pɒstərəs] adj.荒谬的

peril['perəl] n. 危险，冒险

perishable ['perɪʃəb(ə)l] adj. 易腐烂的

unwieldy [ʌn'wiːldɪ] adj.笨重的，笨拙的

intractable[ɪn'træktəbl] adj.倔强的，棘手的

unobtrusive[ˌʌnəb'truːsɪv] adj.不显眼的

paranoia [ˌpærə'nɔɪə] n. 妄想狂，偏执狂

Doomsday prepping: how ready are you for disaster? (767 words)

By Esther Bintliff

A year ago I made a compromise with my husband. He could buy a single packet of water purification tablets, but that had to be it. He couldn’t start bulk ordering freeze-dried food or emergency antibiotics. We were not going to descend into full-blown disaster preparedness.

My husband has mild prepper tendencies. He spent much of his childhood living on a boat in Florida, with an annual hurricane season that prompted his family to literally batten down the hatches on numerous occasions. Add to this years of playing apocalyptic computer games and it’s little wonder he has a vivid picture of what the end of the world will look like.

Before I met him, I’d never heard of prepping. Now, it feels like part of the culture — from the viral New Yorker feature on tech billionaires buying remote luxury bunkers to the advice a US friend shared on Facebook last week, entitled “Where to Hide If a Nuclear Bomb Goes Off in Your Area” (“I live in a primary target so it doesn’t matter,” one person replied).

Lying awake in the early hours in our flat in Hackney, I have occasionally found a tiny, stupid sense of comfort in those water purification tablets. Not that they’d last long, my husband tells me, when I decline his suggestion that we stockpile more. At which point he starts talking about the baseball bat we keep by the bed in case of burglars, and whether this would achieve much when roaming gangs desperate to steal our precious clean water reach the flat.

It can feel preposterous to engage in this play-acting at disaster, when so many people around the world — in Iraq or Syria, say — face imminent danger. Yet as Donald Trump and Kim Jong Un have traded threats, it’s been hard to keep a sense of perspective on how close we are to civilisational peril.

Apocalyptic thinking has always been with us, but its power waxes and wanes. “We live in an extremely unstable and insecure time,” says Ash Amin, a Cambridge University geography professor who studies urban culture. “Risks are much bigger and globally integrated.”

The psychology of prepping rests on this sense of chaos, of needing to assert some control — any control — over an unpredictable reality. There is solace in practical, orderly steps you can tick off a list. Buy a three-day supply of non-perishable food, a few gallons of water, a torch, a multi-tool. Identify your family meeting place, evacuation route, shelter. These are achievable aims.

Many everyday catastrophes, in contrast, are unwieldy and intractable. Rather than arriving with the sudden bloom of a mushroom cloud, they unfold slowly, in quiet, unobtrusive ways. Some 52,000 people died of drug overdoses in the US in 2015, more than from guns or cars, or from HIV/Aids in the year the epidemic reached its height. Mothers, fathers, teenagers collapsing in shopping aisles and sports pitches is its own kind of Armageddon; most of us feel helpless in its wake.

Of course, calamities do occur. One morning in September 1859, British astronomer Richard Carrington was in his observatory when he saw a white-light solar flare — a huge magnetic explosion on the sun. It was followed by the largest geomagnetic storm ever recorded on Earth. Telegraphs were disrupted across Europe and the US. My husband’s fear is of a repeat Carrington event — a severe geomagnetic storm that this time would take down the electrical grid, GPS and satellites. In 2012, scientists suggested that the likelihood of such a storm within a decade was as high as 12 per cent. Worst-case scenario: millions of people, hospitals, businesses without power for months.

Perhaps it’s worth preparing for this one-in-eight possibility of chaos. So when is prepping not paranoia — but planning? Tom Martin, founder of the American Preppers Network, which has 35,000 forum members and 230,000 fans on Facebook, tells me: “The definition of a prepper is quite simply ‘one who prepares’. So if someone stores extra food and emergency supplies in case of a disaster, then by definition they are a prepper …It’s all varying degrees.”

Amin points out that the emphasis on individual prepping may be misplaced. “Where you find really resilient populations, they often share responsibility with their families and communities. And the history of managing for apocalypse is the history of governmental and infrastructure preparedness.”

I take this to mean that instead of building up supplies, we should invite the neighbours round for cake and pressure the government to invest in things such as transport and back-up energy. That’s the kind of prepping I can get behind. But I might buy a wind-up radio as well, just in case.

请根据你所读到的文章内容，完成以下自测题目：

1.According to the author, what did her husband buy in preparation for possible disaster？

A. A packet of water purification tablets.

B. A packet of water purification tablets and a baseball bat.

C. A packet of water purification tablets and freeze-dried food.

D. A packet of water purification tablets and emergency antibiotics.

答案(1)

2.Professor Amin of Cambridge University believes that____.

A. Apocalyptic thinking has became increasingly popular in modern times.

B. In today's world people are facing bigger risks than we used to.

C. In most parts of the world, people face imminent danger in their everyday lives.

D. Most people have no idea how close we are to civilisational peril.

答案(2)

3.What happened in in September 1859？

A. Astronomer Richard Carrington observed the largest geomagnetic storm ever recorded on Earth.

B. A geomagnetic storm caused an month-long electricity black-out across Europe and the US.

C. A huge magnetic explosion on the sun took down electrical grids across Europe and the US.

D. A magnetic explosion on the sun caused the largest geomagnetic storm ever recorded on Earth.

答案(3)

4.Which of the following is true according to the article？

A. Drug overdose is one of the leading causes of accidental death in the US in 2015.

B. The psychology of prepping rests on the sense of insecurity over upcoming disasters.

C. Tom Martin believes everyone who prepares for possible emergencies can be called a prepper.

D. Amin urges that individual prepping is the most important part of disaster preparedness.

答案(4)

* * *

(1) 答案：A

解释：一年前我向丈夫作出妥协，他可以买一包净水药片，但要适可而止，不能在家里囤积冷冻脱水食品和急救抗生素。

(2) 答案：B

解释：剑桥大学地理学教授Ash Amin表示，我们生活在一个极其不稳定、不安全的时代。全世界人都要面对大得多的风险。

(3) 答案：D

解释：1859年，英国天文学家Richard Carrington观测到了一次巨大的太阳风暴，随后地球遭遇了有史以来最为严重的一次地磁暴。

(4) 答案：C

解释：Tom Martin认为，“准备者”的定义非常简单，就是这事先最准备的人。如果一个人准备好多余的食物和应急用品以防灾难降临，他就是准备者。

价值投资与阿森纳的兴衰

测试中可能遇到的词汇和知识：

raconteur [,rækɒn'tɜː] n.健谈者，擅长讲故事的人

knack [næk] n.诀窍，巧妙手法

striker ['straɪkə] n.前锋

pinnacle['pɪnək(ə)l] n.高峰，尖端

foible ['fɒɪb(ə)l] n.弱点，癖好

disdain [dɪs'deɪn] n./v.蔑视

World Footballer of the Year世界足球先生

Scouting, statistics and rice: the rise and fall of Arsène Wenger(910 words)

By Simon Kuper

In 1988 Arsene Wenger, then manager of Monaco, was tracking a young Liberian footballer who played in Cameroon. Each week the Frenchman received intriguing reports about George Weah. Finally Wenger sent a colleague to watch him, who phoned back after: “The bad news is, Weah broke an arm. The good news: he played anyway.”

Wenger liked it. Weah flew to Monaco, signed a contract, then sat back looking miserable: he still didn’t have a cent, he complained. Wenger pulled 500 French francs (then about £50) from his wallet and handed them to the player. A funny raconteur in private, Wenger likes to joke about Weah’s “signing bonus”. Weah, now a politician in Liberia, recently recalled what Wenger told him then: “If you work hard, you will be the best player in Europe.”

“Yeah, right,” he thought. But Wenger was right. In 1995 Weah was voted World Footballer of the Year. He gave the trophy to his mentor.

The story captures much of what made Wenger a great manager: his global eye, his sense for quality, and his knack for getting it cheap. Yet greatness has deserted him. His Arsenal have won no trophies since 2005, lost two star players to richer clubs last month, and on Sunday lost 8-2 to Manchester United. Most Arsenal fans appear tired of Wenger. His decline is a warning to brilliant pioneers in all fields.

When Wenger came to Arsenal from Japanese football in 1996, he brought knowledge that nobody else in insular British football had. Few British managers then even bothered going to world cups, but Wenger was monitoring talent everywhere. While working in Japan, he had contrived to be a regular spectator in Milan, where he befriended a shy young AC Milan reserve named Patrick Vieira – to become Arsenal’s legendary captain. Wenger told Thierry Henry, then a young winger on Juventus’ bench, that he was in fact a striker. “Coach, I don’t score goals,” protested Henry. He became the highest scorer in Arsenal’s history. Wenger discovered the unknown teenagers Nicolas Anelka and Cesc Fabregas. He showed British clubs the benefits of international scouting.

He was a pioneer in nutrition, too. He put Arsenal’s players on a very Japanese diet of fish and boiled vegetables. “We want our Mars bars!” they would chant on the team bus. And the economics graduate introduced statistics into English football. He would track numbers such as how many seconds each player kept the ball. Gilberto Silva was sold after his times inched up. Wenger aspired to a whirlwind passing game: football’s eternal ideal, occasionally achieved by his Arsenal teams, notably the “Invincibles” who won the league unbeaten in 2004.

Wenger was a pioneer but not a revolutionary. For instance, he kept Arsenal’s traditionally English rugged defence intact for years. “I brought my changes in slowly,” he recalled. His best quality, he once said, was listening to more experienced people.

His pinnacle should have been winning the Champions League. He almost did: Arsenal were leading Barcelona 1-0 in the final in 2006 when Henry went through alone on the goalkeeper. But the keeper saved, and Barcelona won. A year later, Wenger was sitting in Athens watching Milan beat Liverpool to win the trophy. As so often during games, he looked angry, as if he had to contain himself to stay seated. Afterwards, as the Milanese collected their medals, he began thumping his hands together. “You see,” he said, “you only need an ordinary team to win the Champions League.” A keen mathematician, he knew that success in any knockout competition is a random walk. He never got lucky.

Eventually he suffered the usual fate of brilliant pioneers: others copied him. Rival clubs replicated his international scouting, diets and statistics. Some also outspent him. In football, the team with the highest wages generally wins. Arsenal’s salary bill is now fifth highest in England. Unlike most managers, Wenger only spends money he has. He discovered the teenaged Cristiano Ronaldo before Manchester United did, but United trumped him with a higher transfer fee. Arsenal spend so cautiously that they regularly turn a profit on transfers.

Billy Beane, general manager of the Oakland A’s baseball team and a pioneer in his sport, says: “When I think of Wenger, I think of Warren Buffett. Wenger runs his football club like he is going to own the club for 100 years.” Wenger masterminded Arsenal’s move to a much larger stadium, the Emirates. Never previously a giant club, Arsenal now rank fifth in global football for revenues. In the short term, though, debt service on the stadium has curtailed their spending.

Worse, Wenger has another fault common to brilliant pioneers: he has become too much like himself. He no longer seems to hear intelligent criticism. He appears to be indulging his personal foibles: a disdain for physical power, a blind spot for goalkeepers, a delight in buying bargains even when he has money, and the quest for perfect passing rather than goals. So dominant has he become at Arsenal that nobody seems able to correct him. “We are not a democracy,” the club’s chief executive Ivan Gazidis has admitted.

This may be Wenger’s last season in London. Few elite players want to play for Arsenal any more. He may never win another trophy, but he changed English football, and both his rise and his fall carries lessons for brilliant pioneers everywhere.

请根据你所读到的文章内容，完成以下自测题目：

1.Billy Beane, a baseball team manager, says: “When I think of Wenger, I think of Warren Buffett."

What are the similarities of these two men?

A. They both focus on long-term investment, seeking solid management.

B. Their philosophy is often adored by others, but not without being questioned.

C. They both have global sight, and the knack for getting high quality assets cheaply.

D. All above is correct.

答案(1)

2.Which of the following cannot support the saying that ‘Wenger is a pioneer’?

A. His club sells star players to richer clubs.

B. He was the first to build a global scouting network.

C. He introduced player nutrition controls into British football.

D. He uses statistics in his coaching.

答案(2)

3.What can we learn from the following sentence? ‘A keen mathematician, he knew that success in any knockout competition is a random walk.’

A. Wenger believes that purchasing expensive star players is a good idea to challenge cups.

B. Wenger believes that managing wisely is as worthless as budgeting heavily.

C. Wenger believes that knock out competition counts a lot on luck.

D. Wenger believes that he can figure out his odds of winning the cup.

答案(3)

4.Which of the following can explain Wenger's recent unsuccessful years?

A. His rival clubs replicated his international scouting, diets and statistics.

B. His rival clubs outspent him.

C. He appears to be indulging his personal foibles.

D. All of above is correct.

答案(4)

* * *

(1) 答案：D. All above is correct.

解释：长期持有经营稳健的公司，以视野的开阔寻找“价值洼地”，这些都是“价值投资”派的理念。Billy Beane显然认为温格也在应用价值投资的理念来经营俱乐部。

(2) 答案：A. His club sells star players to richer clubs.

解释：BCD三项，都是使得温格成为“开拓者”的行为，这些都可以在第四段中找到。至于A项出售球星则不在其列。

(3) 答案：C.Wenger believes that knock out competition counts a lot on luck.

解释：这句话是说，温格认为，花大钱买球星，不一定能让球队在争冠中更有竞争力，因为在淘汰赛中运气成分非常重要，他认为小本经营、精打细算的球队同样可以成功。

(4) 答案：D.All of above is correct.

解释：ABC三项都是正确的。温格的球队已经好几年没有收获任何一项冠军了。看起来，之前使他成功的做法不再能帮他继续成功了。