金融时报:央行的“浮士德式讨价还价”

央行的“浮士德式讨价还价”

Guggenheim Partners首席投资官斯科特·迈纳德(Scott Minerd)。

测试中可能遇到的词汇和知识：

unravel [,ʌn'rævəl] v.阐明；解决；拆散

Federal Reserve notes 联邦储备券，即美元

portfolio [pɔːt'fəʊlɪəʊ] n.文件夹；证券投资组合

basis point 基点，金融常用术语，一个基点为万分之一即0.01%

Operation Twist 扭转操作，即卖出短期债券买入长期债券，目的在不扩张资产负债表规模下缓解经济情况。

insolvent [ɪn'sɒlv(ə)nt] adj.破产的，资不抵债的；n.破产者。

centennial [sen'tenɪəl] adj.一百年的；n.百年纪念

evanescent [iːvə'nes(ə)nt] adj.容易消散的

Beware the Faustian bargains of central banks (811 words)

In Goethe’s 1831 drama Faust, the devil persuades a bankrupt emperor to print and spend vast quantities of paper money as a short-term fix for his country’s fiscal problems. As a consequence, the empire ultimately unravels and descends into chaos. Today, governments that have relied on quantitative easing instead of undertaking necessary structural reforms have arguably entered into the grandest Faustian bargain in financial history.

As a result of multi-trillion-dollar quantitative easing programmes, central banks have compromised their ability to control the money supply, making them vulnerable to runaway inflation. When interest rates rise, the value of central bank assets could fall below the face value of their liabilities, potentially rendering them incapable of protecting the purchasing power of their currencies. To better understand the potential consequences of quantitative easing, it is useful to review the historical evolution of central banking. Early central banks were essentially clearing houses for gold. Individuals and trading companies placed their bullion on deposit and received a claim that could be redeemed upon demand. The system’s strength was largely derived from its simplicity. Today’s global monetary system, by contrast, has virtually no gold backing and depends entirely on faith that central bankers can control the supply of paper money.

When founded in 1913, the Federal Reserve’s definition of eligible reserve assets was extended beyond gold to include short-term bills and then in the 1930s, Treasury securities. The problem with using Treasury securities as a reserve asset is that, unlike gold, Treasuries have duration. This means that in a rising interest rate environment, the value of the Federal Reserve’s asset portfolio could potentially decline below the face value of its liabilities (Federal Reserve notes).

In 2008, just before the first of two rounds of quantitative easing, the Federal Reserve had $41bn in capital and roughly $872bn in liabilities, resulting in a debt to equity ratio of roughly 21-to-one. The Federal Reserve’s portfolio had $480bn in Treasury securities with an asset duration of about 2.5 years. Therefore, a 100 basis point increase in interest rates would have caused the value of its portfolio to fall by 2.5 per cent, or $12bn. A loss of that magnitude would have been severe but not devastating.

By 2011, the Fed’s portfolio consisted of more than $2.6tn in Treasury and agency securities, mortgage bonds and other fixed income assets, and its debt-to-equity ratio had dramatically increased to 51-to-one. Under Operation Twist, the Fed swapped its short-term securities holdings for longer-term ones, thereby extending the duration of its portfolio to more than eight years. Now, a 100 basis point increase in interest rates would cause the market value of the Federal Reserve’s assets to fall by about 8 per cent, or $200bn, leaving it insolvent, with a capital deficit of about $150bn. Hypothetically, a 5 per cent rise in interest rates could cause a trillion dollar decline in the value of the Federal Reserve’s assets.

As the economy continues to expand, the Federal Reserve will eventually seek to normalise monetary policy, resulting in higher interest rates. In this scenario, the central bank could find that the market value of its portfolio has declined to the point where it no longer has enough sellable assets to adequately reduce the money supply and maintain the purchasing power of the dollar. Given US dependence on foreign capital flows, if the stability of the dollar is drawn into question, the ability of the US to finance its deficits may falter. The Federal Reserve could then find itself the buyer of last resort for Treasury securities. In doing so, the government would become hostage to its printing press, and a currency crisis or runaway inflation could take hold.

To hedge against deterioration in the dollar’s purchasing power, investors have already begun migrating towards hard assets such as gold, commercial property, and artwork. Other assets likely to perform well in the immediate term because of the effects of quantitative easing are credit-related instruments including bank loans and asset-backed securities. European equities are likely to outperform US equities over coming years because of ongoing balance sheet expansion by the European Central Bank. Long-duration, fixed-rate assets such as government bonds are likely to underperform in the years ahead, indicating that now may be a better time to sell Treasury securities than buy them.

Less than half a year before the centennial of central banking in the US, neither policy makers nor investors have much to celebrate. By abandoning monetary orthodoxy and pursuing large-scale asset purchases, global central banks have increased the risk of inflation and compromised their ability to stamp it out. It is too early to predict exactly how this Faustian bargain will play out; but, with each additional paper note that rolls off the printing press or gets conjured up in the ether, the likelihood of a happy ending becomes increasingly evanescent.

请根据你所读到的文章内容，完成以下自测题目：

1.Why is it that when interest rates rise, the value of assets could fall?

A. The central bank made such a rule.

B. Higher interest rates mean inflation, and thus asssets devalue.

C. Higher interest rates indicate that investors are not going to buy assets unless they are sold cheaper.

D. There's no cause and effect between these two phenomena.

答案(1)

2.According to the passage, what is the wrong description of early financial systems?

A. People used gold as currency.

B. Banks issued gold receipts as paper money.

C. Powerful bankers had the ability to cause inflation.

D. Early central banks were essentially clearing houses for gold.

答案(2)

3.Which one of the following is correct about the Federal Reserve?

(Hint: money issued by a central bank is considered its debt.)

A. It is the first central bank in the world.

B. It is a department in the cabinet.

C. Quantitative Easing dramatically increased the Fed's debt scale.

D. By 2011, the Fed's debt-to-equity ratio is about 51%.

答案(3)

4.What can we infer from the following sentence?

···global central banks have increased the risk of inflation and compromised their ability to stamp it out.

A. Central banks can "print money" very easily.

B. Central banks would suffer reserve asset losses if they themselves raise interest rates.

C. Central banks can feel free to make huge asset purchases that inject money into the economy.

D. All the above are correct.

答案(4)

* * *

(1) 答案：C.Higher interest rates indicate that investors are not going to buy assets unless they are sold cheaper.

解释：这是一个有趣的经济学问题。市场利率上升，意味着投资者比以前更不愿投资，除非同样的资产给出更高的回报（如储蓄、债券等的更高利率）， 或者以更便宜的价格买这笔资产（价格下降）。对于已经发行的证券来说，就意味着其价值下跌。

(2) 答案：C.Powerful bankers had the ability to cause inflation.

解释：作者指出，早先的银行，与今天不同，它们必须有相应的黄金储备才能发行“黄金收据”也就是纸钞。 而今天的央行可以很容易地增加货币供应。ABD三项都是正确的，在原文第二段中，D项是原文。

(3) 答案：C.Quantitative Easing dramatically increased the Fed's debt scale.

解释：A项原文中并未提及，世界上第一家现代中央银行是英格兰银行，它在1833年取得了发行无限法偿银行券的地位。B项也是不正确的，美联储不是联邦政府内的一个部门。D，文中第五段提到，By 2011,its debt-to-equity ratio had dramatically increased to 51-to-one. 是51倍，而不是51%。

(4) 答案：D.All the above are correct.

解释：ABC三项都是正确的，读懂了这句话，你就懂得了这篇文章作者想要说些什么。今天的央行，不像过去那样依赖黄金储备，而是以各种证券资产作为发行货币的储备。 糟糕的是，这些资产是有持续期（久期）的，也就是说如果利率上升，它们的价值就会下跌。央行的量化宽松——即用印来的钱买债券——不仅把大量货币注入经济体，推高了通胀的风险，还削弱了央行本身用加息以抗通胀的能力。