英国“金融城”地位不保？

伦敦“金融城”辉煌不再？此时投资需谨慎！

FT地产记者朱迪斯·埃文斯：

The gherkin, the cheesegrater, the walkie-talkie, the square mile in the capital known as the City of London is becoming as famous for the nicknames given to its skyscrapers as it is for the trading and business deals that take place there.

“小黄瓜”“起司刨”“对讲机”，在伦敦市中心一英里见方的金融城里，这些摩天大楼的昵称，已经和这里的海量交易一样出名。

And more are on the way.Three new tall buildings are under construction and several more have been given planning permission.If they all go ahead, that's millions of square feet of new office space in a small section of the city.But will there be enough demands to fill them?

还会有更多的摩天大楼出现在这里，三座新的大楼正在建造中，还有几座已经获得规划许可。如果她们全部上马，将给金融城内这片狭小地带新增几百万平方英尺的办公空间。但是真的有那么多需求么？

FT保险业记者奥利弗·拉尔夫：

The answer, traditionally, would have been the insurance industry which is based in this part of the City.And they're here, because the Lloyd's of London is here.Lloyd's generates annual premium about 27 billion pounds.It is also one of the last bastions of the face-to-face trading in the city.So the people that trade here need to have their offices nearby.

按传统来看，能回答这个问题的是保险业。这个行业大多在这一片金融城办公。他们选择这里，是因为（英国最大的保险交易场）劳合社在这里。劳合社每年保费收入大约270亿英镑。它也是伦敦仅存的仍实行面对面交易的金融市场之一。在这里进行交易的人们需要把办公室设在附近。

Do insurance companies want a lot of new and potentially expensive office space? Time is tough for the insurers operating in and around Lloyd's.Prices have been falling for years.Price for some sorts of special reinsurance has fallen for 30% since 2011.Low interest rates also hurt profits.And the industry is going a way of automation as insurance tries to cut cost by using technology.Some analysts think the headcount of European insurance will fall by 25% between 2015 and 2025.

但是保险公司真的需要很多新的、租金可能非常高的办公空间么？保险业正面临艰难的年景，保险产品的价格已经连续好几年下跌，一些特殊种类的再保险的价格自2011年以来已经下跌30%，低利率环境也在侵蚀保险业的利润。这个行业还在迅速地实现自动化，通过技术手段来降低成本。一些分析师预测，欧洲保险业雇员的人数在2015至2025年间将减少25%。

朱迪斯·埃文斯：

On the other hand, insurance coming to the end of their leases may be looking for newer, more flexible office space.Mergers and acquisitions mean newly-created groups are trying to consolidate multiple sites into one building.Figures suggest that recently insurers have wanted less space rather than more.According to Deloitte, leasing to the industry has fallen sharply since 2014, from almost 450,000 square feet to less than 120,000 （square feet） last year.At the Gherkin building behind me, the reinsurance of Swiss Re is looking to sublet several floors of the building to another company.

与此同时，保险公司在办公室租约到期后，可能会寻找新的、更灵活的办公场地。在经历一轮并购和重组后，一些新成立的公司将把多个办公室合并成一个。数据显示，保险公司近年来对办公空间的需求在减少，而不是增加。根据德勤的数据显示，保险业租用的办公楼空间三年来大幅下降，从2014年的45万平方英尺（约）降到2016年的12万平方英尺。在我身后的“小黄瓜”里，瑞士再保险公司正在考虑把几层办公楼转租给另一家公司。

奥利弗·拉尔夫：

A lot of financial services businesses at top rate here in the City of London, might have to open new bases elsewhere in the EU after Brexit.In the insurance world, that might not mean moving a lot of people, but in other parts of the financial services businesses, it will do.Add it all together, it will cause a big drop in demand for office space in the City of London.Is this really the right time to be pouring billions of pounds into new offices?

（英国脱欧让事情更加复杂）在金融城租用着最昂贵办公楼的金融机构，在脱欧之后可能需要在欧洲其他地方新设办公室。对保险业来说，可能影响不是很大。但是其他金融机构可能需要把很多雇员派往欧洲大陆。这些因素叠加起来，会使得金融业对伦敦金融城办公空间的需求大幅度减少。现在真的是投入几十亿英镑建设办公楼的最佳时机么？

朱迪斯·埃文斯：

Developers and City of London planners are also putting their hopes on other industries moving here.Amazon, for example, now has an office in EC3.And planners want to attract more technology companies.Across London, take up of new office space by technology and media companies has exceeded banking and financial services since the 2008 crisis.There is also the growing phenomenon of financial technology, with start-ups helping insurers use social media data, for example.But many of those companies prefer offices in fashionable areas like Shoreditch outside the City boundary.

地产商和金融城规划者只能寄希望于其它行业入驻，比如亚马逊现在在市中心的EC3区设有办公室。规划者希望能吸引到更多的科技公司前来办公。在伦敦城区各处，科技和媒体公司在2008金融危机之后新租用的办公空间规模已经超过银行业和金融业。金融科技类公司更如雨后春笋般出现，比如帮助保险公司更好利用社交媒体数据的初创公司。但是许多初创公司喜欢在更时尚的地区办公，比如金融城之外的肖迪奇。

奥利弗·拉尔夫：

The sculpted skyscraper which has 386,000 square foot of space is due for completion later this year.It has already secured three insurers for later tenants.But other skyscrapers planned for the area don't yet have construction timetables.The question is whether the demand for office space will be strong enough to convince the developers to push the button and start work.

我身后这幢建造中的摩天大楼在今年内完工时，将提供38.6万平方英尺办公面积，已经有三家保险公司确定入驻。但是其他规划中的摩天大楼还没有建成时间表，问题在于对办公空间的需求能否充足到说服地产商按下破土动工的按钮。

词汇总结

skyscraper[ˈskaɪskreɪpə（r）]

n.摩天大楼，超高层大楼;特别高的东西

The gherkin, the cheesegrater, the walkie-talkie, the square mile in the capital known as the City of London is becoming as famous for the nicknames given to its skyscrapers as it is for the trading and business deals that take place there.

“小黄瓜”“起司刨”“对讲机”，在伦敦市中心一英里见方的金融城里，这些摩天大楼的昵称，已经和这里的海量交易一样出名。

premium[ˈpri:miəm]

n.保险费;额外费用;附加费

adj.优质的;高昂的

Lloyd's generates annual premium about 27 billion pounds.

劳合社每年保费收入大约270亿英镑。

headcount[ˈhedkaʊnt]

n.点人头数总人数，职员总数

Some analysts think the headcount of European insurance will fall by 25% between 2015 and 2025.

一些分析师预测，欧洲保险业雇员的人数在2015至2025年间将减少25%。