东京房价为什么不涨？

04 东京房价为什么不涨？

过去20年间，旧金山房价涨了231%，伦敦飙升441%，东京房价20年却仅增长45%。东京是怎么做到的？FT东京分社社长罗宾·哈丁(Robin Harding)从身边小事说起，探讨东京房价不涨的奥秘

罗宾·哈丁居住于东京，是英国《金融时报》东京分社社长。最近，自家住宅周围的一点变化令他无比烦恼。

“让我们大感意外的是隔壁房子的剧变。我们知道它是套空置房，长满苔藓的花园里野草不断疯涨，楼上的窗帘也从未开过。但一天，一纸公告后，液压式挖掘机就把房子一拆而光，明年底，此处将拔地而起一幢由16套公寓房组成的住宅楼。

一夜之间，我们就与东京的一处建筑工地毗邻而居。这可一点都不有趣。工地每周工作6天。要是在伦敦、巴黎或是旧金山，肯定会引发居民愤怒的抗议潮——请愿书、警告小区从此特色不再、甚至可能会闹出一、二桩官司。地方选举因选民减少支持而败北，等等不胜枚举。

然而在我们小区，当地居民却集体缄默，与东京港区规划局局长野口隆彦的一番谈话道出了其中缘由：“日本法律对拆除住房并无任何限制。”他说，“居民有权自由处置自己名下的地产，因此，小区居民无权阻止其开发利用。”

这件事引发了哈丁的思考。过去20年间，旧金山房价涨了231%，伦敦飙升441%，东京房价20年却仅增长45%。相对宽松的楼市开发政策是否是东京抑制房价增长的秘诀呢？哈丁撰文对此事给出了自己的意见：

岿然不动的东京房价

Here is a startling fact: in 2014 there were 142,417 housing starts in the city of Tokyo (population 13.3m, no empty land), more than the 83,657 housing permits issued in the state of California (population 38.7m), or the 137,010 houses started in the entire country of England (population 54.3m).

以下是不可思议的事实：2014年，总人口1330万、几无空余建筑用地的东京都新开工住房数为142417户，超过了整个加州的许可建房数（83657户），也超过了英国全国（总人口5430万）的新开工数（137010户）。

Tokyo's steady construction is linked to a still more startling fact.In contrast to the enormous house price booms that have distorted western cities — setting young against old, redistributing wealth to the already wealthy, and denying others the chance to move to where the good jobs are — the cost of property in Japan's capital has hardly budged.

东京新开工住房数稳步上升，这与更加不同寻常的事实紧密关联。与西方大城市房价暴涨形成强烈反差的是：东京的房价基本原地踏步走。离谱房价造成西方城市畸形式发展：导致年轻人与老年人对立、富者更富以及剥夺人才涌向好工作云集地段的机会。

This is not the result of a falling population.Japan has experienced the same “return to the city” wave as other nations.In Minato ward — a desirable 20 sq km slice of central Tokyo — the population is up 66 per cent over the past 20 years, from 145,000 to 241,000, an increase of about 100,000 residents.

这并非人口不断减少造成的结果。日本与其它国家一样，也经历了“回归城市”潮。位于东京中心地段、面积20平方公里、寸土寸金的弹丸之地港区，过去20年总人口从14.5万增至24.1万，大约增加了10万人，大幅增长66%。

In the 121 sq km of San Francisco, the population grew by about the same number over 20 years, from 746,000 to 865,000 — a rise of 16 per cent.Yet whereas the price of a home in San Francisco and London has increased 231 per cent and 441 per cent respectively, Minato ward has absorbed its population boom with price rises of just 45 per cent, much of which came after the Bank of Japan launched its big monetary stimulus in 2013.

在总面积121平方公里的旧金山，过去20年，也增加了约10万人（总人口从74.6万增至86.5万），增长了16%。然而，旧金山与伦敦的房价过去20年分别飚升了231%与441%，东京港区在人口增加的同时，20年间房价仅仅增长45%，而多数涨幅还是日本央行2013年推出大规模货币刺激政策所致。

In Tokyo there are no boring conversations about house prices because they have not changed much.Whether to buy or rent is not a life-changing decision.Rather, Japan delivers to its people a steadily improving standard, location and volume of house.

东京的街头巷尾并无烦人的房价热议，因为房价多年来增长不多。买房还是租房并不是了不得的人生大事。相反，日本政府不断向国民交付质量稳步提高、地处不同地段的更多房源。

In many countries, urban housing is becoming one of the great social and economic issues of the age.It is worth investigating, therefore, how Tokyo achieved this feat, the price it has paid for a steady stream of homes, and whether there are any lessons to learn.

而在很多国家，城市住房已演变成现今最重大的社会与经济问题。因此，我们有必要深入研究东京为何有此了不起的成就、房源持续供应情况下的房价为何能保持基本不变以及从中可以吸取什么经验教训。

楼市开发政策的玄机

Like most institutions in Japan, urban planning was originally based on western models.Cities are zoned into commercial, industrial and residential land of various types.In commercial areas you can build what you want: part of Tokyo's trick is a blossoming of apartment towers in former industrial zones around the bay.But in low-rise residential districts, there are strict limits.

与日本多数机构一样，日本城市规划最初完全借鉴西方模式。城市按不同功能划分为商业区、工业区以及住宅区。商业区可按业主自己意愿建房：东京的高招之一就是在原先绕东京湾的工业区不断兴建高层公寓楼。但在低层住宅区，建房则有着严格限制。

Subject to the zoning rules, the rights of landowners are strong.A private developer cannot make you sell land; a local government cannot stop you using it.If you want to build a mock-Gothic castle faced in pink seashells, that is your business.In the cities of coastal California, zoning rules have led to paralysis and a lack of new housing supply, as existing homeowners block new development.It was a similar story in 1980s Tokyo.

在分区规划下，土地所有者拥有很多权力。私人开发商不能强迫业主出售土地；地方政府也不能阻止个人开发土地。诸位若想建一幢正面装饰粉色贝壳的仿哥特式城堡，完全是自己说了算。在加州沿海城市，分区规划已导致城市建设处于瘫痪状态，新房供应难以为继，原因是现有业主阻止进一步开发。这与上世纪80年代的东京如出一辙。

“During the 1980s Japan had a spectacular speculative house price bubble that was even worse than in London and New York during the same period, and various Japanese economists were decrying the planning and zoning systems as having been a major contributor by reducing supply,” says André Sorensen, a geography professor at the University of Toronto.

“上世纪80年代，日本的房价因大肆投机而形成巨大泡沫，境况比同时期的伦敦与纽约更甚，日本许多经济学家都齐声谴责规划与分区政策，指其是减少房屋供应的罪魁祸首。”多伦多大学地理学教授索伦森(André Sorensen)说。

As bad loans to developers brought Japan's financial system to the brink of collapse in the 1990s, the government relaxed development rules, culminating in the Urban Renaissance Law of 2002, which made it easier to rezone land.Office sites were repurposed for new housing.“To help the economy recover from the bubble, the country eased regulation on urban development,” says Hiro Ichikawa, who advises developer Mori Building.“If it hadn't been for the bubble, Tokyo would be in the same situation as London or San Francisco.”

上世纪90年代，地产商的不良贷款使日本金融机构濒临崩溃，于是政府放松了楼市开发政策，最终以2002年出台《城市复兴法》而告终。该法给重新分区规划大开绿灯。写字楼地块重新规划为住宅区。“为了帮助经济从泡沫中恢复元气，日本政府放松了城市开发的监管。” 日本森大厦株式会社房产公司顾问Hiro Ichikawa说，“多亏了当初的楼市泡沫，否则东京就会与现在的伦敦和旧金山一样束手无策。”

Constant rebuilding helps to explain why housing starts in the city are so high: the net increase in homes is lower.Like our next-door neighbours, however, a rebuild often allows an increase in density.

持续不断的重建很好解释为何东京住房新开工率如此之高：住房的净增加数量低于以往。但与我的隔壁邻居一样，重建通常可以增加住宅密度。

无为而治的规划制度

“The Japanese system is extremely laissez-faire.It really is the minimum.And it's extremely centralised and standardised.That means it is highly flexible in responding to social and economic change,” says Okata.

“日本的规划制度完全放任自流，它真的是崇尚无为而治；而且日本规划制度是集权化与标准化至上。这意味着它可灵活应对社会和经济的变化。”冈田说。

“On the other hand, it's not much good at producing outcomes suited to a particular town in a particular place.It can't produce attractive cities like the UK or Europe.” Okata wants to hand much more power to local government.

“另一方面，日本不太擅长原样复制某国某个特定城镇。它无法建造出像英国或欧洲等国的迷人城市。”冈田希望中央政府能大幅放权于地方政府。

And yet.At the level of individual buildings, if you block from your vision whatever stands next door, Tokyo fizzes with invention and beauty.It is no coincidence that the country where architects can build has produced a procession of Pritzker prize winners.

然而也不尽然。在私家住宅这一层面，如果诸位“视而不见”自己邻家房子的话，那么东京充斥着创新与美景。由于日本建筑师可以自由地建造房屋，因此该国不断涌现普利兹克奖得主并非偶然。

Japanese urbanism, with its “scramble” pedestrian crossings, its narrow streets, its dense population and its superb public transport is looked to as a model, certainly in Asia, and increasingly across the rest of the world as well.

日本的城市化——全向十字路口、狭窄的街道、人口稠密以及异常发达的公共交通——毫无疑问会成为亚洲、乃至全世界的样板。

Most of all, Tokyo is fair.The ugliness is shared by rich and poor alike.So is the low-cost housing.In London, or in San Francisco, all share in the beauty, but some enjoy it from the gutter; others from high above the city, in the rationed seats, closer to the stars.

最重要的是：东京又是公平的。丑陋的建筑里既住着穷人，也住着富人，廉租房同样如此。而在伦敦及旧金山，美景人人都有份，只是有些人身处贫民窟欣赏它，而有些人则坐在九霄云天的豪华飞机中纵情俯瞰它。

词汇总结

budge [bʌdʒ]

v.使缓和，使减轻

The cost of property in Japan's capital has hardly budged.

东京的房价基本原地踏步走。

speculative ['spekjʊlətɪv]

adj.思考的,思索的,推测出的投机的,投机生意的

During the 1980s Japan had a spectacular speculative house price bubble

上世纪80年代，日本的房价因大肆投机而形成巨大泡沫

laissez-faire

adj.自由放任的；放任主义的

The Japanese system is extremely laissez-faire.

日本的规划制度完全放任自流

fizz [fɪz]

v.(液体,通常指饮料)起泡,发嘶嘶声

At the level of individual buildings, if you block from your vision whatever stands next door, Tokyo fizzes with invention and beauty.

在私家住宅这一层面，如果诸位“视而不见”自己邻家房子的话，那么东京充斥着创新与美景。

culminate in达到顶点；以…告终

As bad loans to developers brought Japan's financial system to the brink of collapse in the 1990s, the government relaxed development rules, culminating in the Urban Renaissance Law of 2002.

上世纪90年代，地产商的不良贷款使日本金融机构濒临崩溃，于是政府放松了楼市开发政策，最终以2002年出台《城市复兴法》而告终