演讲MP3+双语文稿:气候变化如何降低我们食物的营养价值

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[演讲者及介绍]Kristie Ebi

公共卫生研究员Kristie Ebi研究和开发干预措施来帮助高危人群应对气候变化。

[演讲主题]气候变化会如何降低我们食物的营养价值

[中英文字幕]

翻译者 Nan Yang 校对者 Yolanda Zhang

00:01

Yogi Berra, a US baseball player andphilosopher, said, "If we don't know where we're going, we might not getthere." Accumulating scientific knowledge is giving us greater insights,greater clarity, into what our future might look like in a changing climate andwhat that could mean for our health. I'm here to talk about a related aspect,on how our emissions of greenhouse gases from burning of fossil fuels isreducing the nutritional quality of our food.

美国棒球运动员兼哲学家 Yogi Berra 说过：“如果不知道哪是我们的目的地，我们就无法到达。”不断累积的科学知识带给我们更深刻的见解，更大的清晰度，让我意识到我们的未来在气候的变化下会是什么样子以及对我们的健康意味着什么。我今天在这里要讲解的是与之相关的一个方面，就是我们通过燃烧化石燃料产生的温室气体，正在降低我们食物的营养质量。

00:37

We'll start with the food pyramid. You allknow the food pyramid. We all need to eat a balanced diet. We need to get proteins,we need to get micronutrients, we need to get vitamins. And so, this is a wayfor us to think about how to make sure we get what we need every day so we cangrow and thrive.

让我们从食物金字塔开始说起。我们都知道食物金字塔。我们都需要均衡饮食。我们需要摄入蛋白质，我们需要摄入微量元素，我们需要摄入维他命。所以，这是我们思考如何保证我们每天所需的方法，这样我们可以茁壮成长。

00:56

But we eat not just because we need to, wealso eat for enjoyment. Bread, pasta, pizza -- there's a whole range of foodsthat are culturally important. We enjoy eating these. And so they're importantfor our diet, but they're also important for our cultures.

但是我们不仅因为身体需要而吃，我们也为了享受而吃。面包，意大利面，披萨等等，有很大一部分的食物在文化层面上非常重要。我们非常喜欢吃这些。所以它们不只对我们的饮食很重要，对我们的文化也非常重要。

01:15

Carbon dioxide has been increasing sincethe start of the Industrial Revolution, increasing from about 280 parts permillion to over 410 today, and it continues to increase. The carbon that plantsneed to grow comes from this carbon dioxide. They bring it into the plant, theybreak it apart into the carbon itself, and they use that to grow. They also neednutrients from the soil. And so yes, carbon dioxide is plant food.

自从工业革命的开始，二氧化碳排放量就在逐渐增加，从开始的 280 ppm (浓度单位) 到现在的 410 ppm，而且还在继续增长。植物生长所需的碳来自于这些二氧化碳。它们吸收二氧化碳，分解成碳本身，然后利用其来生长。它们也需要从土壤里摄入营养。所以，是的，二氧化碳是植物的食物。

01:49

And this should be good news, of risingcarbon dioxide concentrations, for food security around the world, making surethat people get enough to eat every day. About 820 million people in the worlddon't get enough to eat every day. So there's a fair amount written about howhigher CO2 is going to help with our food security problem. We need toaccelerate our progress in agricultural productivity to feed the nine to 10billion people who will be alive in 2050 and to achieve the SustainableDevelopment Goals, particularly the Goal Number 2, that is on reducing foodinsecurity, increasing nutrition, increasing access to the foods that we needfor everyone. We know that climate change is affecting agriculturalproductivity. The earth has warmed about one degree centigrade since preindustrialtimes. That is changing local temperature and precipitation patterns, and thathas consequences for the agricultural productivity in many parts of the world.And it's not just local changes in temperature and precipitation, it's theextremes. Extremes in terms of heat waves, floods and droughts aresignificantly affecting productivity.

提升二氧化碳的浓度，对于全世界的食品安全都应该是好消息，可以保证人们每天有足够的食物。世界上有8亿2千万的人没有足够的食物。所以对于还要多高的二氧化碳可以帮助解决我们的食品安全问题，人们进行过很多讨论。我们需要加快农业生产进度，来养活到2050年，地球上将出现的90到100亿人口，以实现可持续发展目标，特别是目标2，让食品更加安全，增加营养，让每个人得到所需的食物。我们知道气候变化正在改变着农业生产力。自工业化时代以来，地球的温度已经升高了1摄氏度。这正改变着局部的温度和降水模式，这对世界很多地方的农业生产力有着重大的影响。而且这并不只是对局部气温和降水的影响，而是非常极端的影响。严重的热浪，洪水和干旱正在严重影响着生产力。

03:10

And that carbon dioxide, besides makingplants grow, has other consequences as well, that plants, when they have highercarbon dioxide, increase the synthesis of carbohydrates, sugars and starches,and they decrease the concentrations of protein and critical nutrients. Andthis is very important for how we think about food security going forward.

而二氧化碳，除了帮助植物生长以外，也有其它副作用，当植物摄入过高的二氧化碳，提高了碳水化合物，糖和淀粉的合成，而降低了蛋白质和关键营养物质的浓度。而这对我们思考未来的食品安全非常重要。

03:38

A couple of nights ago in the table talkson climate change, someone said that they're a five-sevenths optimist: thatthey're an optimist five days of the week, and this is a topic for the othertwo days.

在几天前的一个关于气候变化的谈话中，有人提到他们是七分之五乐观主义者：意思是每周有五天他们是乐观的，而另外两天不是。

03:53

When we think about micronutrients, almostall of them are affected by higher CO2 concentrations. Two in particular areiron and zinc. When you don't have enough iron, you can develop iron deficiencyanemia. It's associated with fatigue, shortness of breath and some fairlyserious consequences as well. When you don't have enough zinc, you can have aloss of appetite. It is a significant problem around the world. There's aboutone billion people who are zinc deficient. It's very important for maternal andchild health. It affects development. The B vitamins are critical for a wholerange of reasons. They help convert our food into energy. They're important forthe functions of many of the physiologic activities in our bodies. And when youhave higher carbon in a plant, you have less nitrogen, and you have less Bvitamins.

当我们想到微量元素时，基本上所有微量元素都受到更高浓度的二氧化碳影响。特别是铁和锌。当你没有摄入足够的铁时，会触发缺铁性贫血，导致疲劳，呼吸急促，和其它一些非常严重的症状。而当你摄入锌不足的时候，可能会导致没有胃口。这是全球范围内的严重问题。有大约10亿人缺锌。这对于母亲和孩子的健康尤为重要。它影响着孩子的生长。维他命B在很多方面都非常关键。B族维他命帮助把我们的食物转化为能量。对于我们身体中很多的生理活动机能 都非常重要。而且当在植物中有过高的碳，氮含量就会减少，维他命B也会减少。

04:46

And it's not just us. Cattle are alreadybeing affected because the quality of their forage is declining. In fact, thisaffects every consumer of plants. And give a thought to, for example, our petcats and dogs. If you look on the label of most of the pet and dog food,there's a significant amount of grain in those foods. So this affects everyone.

而这不只会影响我们。由于草饲料质量的下降，牛也已经受到了影响。实际上，它影响着所有植物的消耗者。想一下，比如我们的宠物猫狗。如果你仔细看狗粮，猫粮产品的标签，这些食物里包含大量的谷物。它影响着每个生物。

05:11

How do we know that this is a problem? We knowfrom field studies and we know from experimental studies in laboratories. Inthe field studies -- and I'll focus primarily on wheat and on rice -- there'sfields, for example, of rice that are divided into different plots. And theplots are all the same: the soil's the same, the precipitation's the same --everything's the same. Except carbon dioxide is blown over some of the plots.And so you can compare what it looks like under today's conditions and undercarbon dioxide conditions later in the century.

我们是如何知道这是个问题的呢? 我们从一些实地考察，从实验室的实验研究得知这些。在实地考察中——我会主要关注小麦和水稻—— 例如，水稻田 会被分成不同的地块。这些地块完全一样： 一样的土壤，一样的灌溉方式—— 所有条件都一样，除了吹到田里的二氧化碳。所以你可以比较 在现在的二氧化碳情况 和本世纪后期二氧化碳的 情况下对作物的影响。

05:53

I was part of one of the few studies thathave done this. We looked at 18 rice lines in China and in Japan and grew themunder conditions that you would expect later in the century. And when you lookat the results, So protein declines about 10 percent, iron about eight percent,zinc about five percent. These don't sound like really big changes, but whenyou start thinking about the poor in every country who primarily eat starch,that this will put people who are on the edge over the edge into frankdeficiencies, creating all kinds of health problems.

我参与了这些实地考察中的一部分。我们查看了在中国和日本的 18条水稻生产线，它们是在我们预期中的本世纪后期的二氧化碳情况下生长。现在让我们来看看结果，可见蛋白质含量降低了10%，铁8%，锌大约5%。听起来这些不是什么大变化，但是当你想到每个国家主要以吃淀粉为生的穷人时，这会把那些生存在贫穷边缘的人推向营养严重不足的一边，导致各种安全健康问题。

06:42

The situation is more significant for the Bvitamins. When you look at vitamin B1 and vitamin B2, there's about a 17percent decline. Pantothenic acid, vitamin B5, is about a 13 percent decline.Folate is about a 30 percent decline. And these are averages over the variousexperiments that were done. Folate is critical for child development. Pregnantwomen who don't get enough folate are at much higher risk of having babies withbirth defects. So these are very serious potential consequences for our healthas CO2 continues to rise.

情况对于维他命B族更加严重。我们看维他命B1和B2，都大约降低了17%。泛酸，维他命B5 下降了大约13%。叶酸降低了30%。而这些是我们所做的各种实验的平均值。叶酸对于胚胎的成长非常关键。孕妇如果不能摄入足够叶酸会有更高风险造成婴儿缺陷。所以这些都是二氧化碳持续增长会对我们的健康带来的潜在严重后果。

07:23

In another example, this is modeling workthat was done by Chris Weyant and his colleagues, taking a look at this chainfrom higher CO2 to lower iron and zinc -- and they only looked at iron and zinc-- to various health outcomes. They looked at malaria, diarrheal disease,pneumonia, iron deficiency anemia, and looked at what the consequences could bein 2050. So you can see the major impacts in Asia and in Africa, but also notethat in countries such as the United States and countries in Europe, thepopulations also could be affected. They estimated about 125 million peoplecould be affected. They also modeled what would be the most effective interventions,and their conclusion was reducing our greenhouse gases: getting our greenhousegas emissions down by mid-century so we don't have to worry so much about theseconsequences later in the century.

接下来的例子，是由Chris Weyant和他的同事做的建模工作，来看这个从高二氧化碳到低锌低铁的链条，他们研究了铁和锌与各种健康状况的关系。他们研究了疟疾，腹泻，肺炎，缺铁性贫血，研究了2050年结果会是什么样，你可以看见在非洲和亚洲的主要影响，但是要注意，在美国和欧洲各国，人们也受到了影响。他们估计大约1亿2千500万人会受影响。他们同样模拟了哪种是最有效的干预措施，而结论就是要减少温室气体：在本世纪中期减少温室气体的释放我们就不需要担心那些对本世纪后期产生的影响。

08:28

These experiments, these modeling studiesdid not take climate change itself into account. They just focused on thecarbon dioxide component. So when you put the two together, it's expected theimpact is much larger than what I've told you.

这些实验，模型的研究没有把气候变化考虑在内。他们只是专注于二氧化碳部分。所以当你把这两部分放在一起，可以预期那些影响将比我之前所说的还要严重。

08:44

I'd love to be able to tell you right nowhow much the food you had for breakfast, the food you're going to have forlunch, has shifted from what your grandparents ate in terms of its nutritionalquality. But I can't. We don't have the research on that. I'd love to tell youhow much current food insecurity is affected by these changes. But I can't. Wedon't have the research on that, either. There's a lot that needs to be knownin this area, including what the possible solutions could be. We don't knowexactly what those solutions are, but we've got a range of options. We've gotadvancements in technologies. We've got plant breeding. We've gotbiofortification. Soils could make a difference. And, of course, it will bevery helpful to know how these changes could affect our future health and thehealth of our children and the health of our grandchildren. And theseinvestments take time. It will take time to sort all of these issues out. Thereis no national entity or business group that is funding this research. We needthese investments critically so that we do know where we're going.

此时我非常想告诉你们，我们早餐和午餐吃的食物从营养质量的角度跟我们祖父母所吃的有什么不同。但是我不能。我们没有那方面的研究。我非常想告诉你们有多少食品的安全性被这些变化影响。但是我不能。我们也没有这方面的研究。在这个领域还有很多需要探索的东西，包括可能的解决方案是什么。我们不知道确切的解决方案，但是我们有一系列选择。我们有技术的进步。我们有植物育种。我们有生物强化。土壤可以带来变化。而且当然，它有助于我们知道这些变化如何影响人们未来的健康，和我们子孙的健康。这些投入都需要时间。需要时间来把问题整理清楚。没有国家实体或者商业机构在资助这些研究。我们非常需要这些投资，这样就可以知道我们的方向。

10:04

In the meantime, what we can do is ensurethat all people have access to a complete diet, not just those in the wealthyparts of the world but everywhere in the world. We also individually andcollectively need to reduce our greenhouse gas emissions to reduce thechallenges that will come later in the century.

同时，我们可以做的事情是确保所有人能够得到完整的饮食结构，不只是那些富裕的地方，而是世界上所有地方。我们从个人和集体的角度都要减少温室气体的排放，这样才能减少本世纪后期会出现的那些挑战

10:27

It's been said that if you think educationis expensive, try ignorance. Let's not. Let's invest in ourselves, in ourchildren and in our planet.

有人说过，如果你认为教育很昂贵，那么试一试无知的代价。但是我们不能这样。让我们为自己投资，为我们的孩子和地球投资吧。

10:41

Thank you.

谢谢大家。

10:42

(Applause)

（掌声）