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演讲MP3+双语文稿:世界上最大的家谱

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2022年07月19日

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听力课堂TED音频栏目主要包括TED演讲的音频MP3及中英双语文稿,供各位英语爱好者学习使用。本文主要内容为演讲MP3+双语文稿:世界上最大的家谱,希望你会喜欢!

【演讲者及介绍】Yaniv Erlich

计算遗传学家,着迷于DNA和数据之间的联系。

【演讲主题】我们如何建立世界上最大的家谱

【中英文字幕】

翻译者 psjmz mz 校对者 YanyanHong

00:12

People use the internet for variousreasons. It turns out that one of the most popular categories of website issomething that people typically consume in private. It involves curiosity,non-insignificant levels of self-indulgence and is centered around recordingthe reproductive activities of other people.

人们因各种原因使用着互联网。一种最受欢迎的网站是人们常常私下浏览的东西。它涉及到好奇心,无关自我放纵程度,并以记录他人的生殖记录为中心。

00:36

(Laughter) Of course, I'm talking aboutgenealogy --

(笑声)当然,我讨论的是家谱学——

00:39

(Laughter) the study of family history.

(笑声)也就是对家庭历史的研究。

00:43

When it comes to detailing family history,in every family, we have this person that is obsessed with genealogy. Let'scall him Uncle Bernie. Uncle Bernie is exactly the last person you want to sitnext to in Thanksgiving dinner, because he will bore you to death with peculiardetails about some ancient relatives. But as you know, there is a scientificside for everything, and we found that Uncle Bernie's stories have immensepotential for biomedical research.

当说到详细的家族历史,在每个家庭中,我们都有一个痴迷于家谱的人。我们姑且叫他伯尼叔叔吧。伯尼叔叔正是你在感恩节晚餐上,最不想坐在一起的人,因为他会用一些远古亲戚的奇特细节把你烦死。但正如你所知,任何事物都有科学的一面,我们发现伯尼叔叔的故事具有巨大的生物医学研究潜力。

01:13

We let Uncle Bernie and his fellowgenealogists document their family trees through a genealogy website calledgeni.com. When users upload their trees to the website, it scans theirrelatives, and if it finds matches to existing trees, it merges the existingand the new tree together. The result is that large family trees are created,beyond the individual level of each genealogist. Now, by repeating this processwith millions of people all over the world, we can crowdsource the constructionof a family tree of all humankind.

我们让伯尼叔叔和他的家谱同行,通过族谱网站 geni.com 记录他们的家谱。当用户上传他们的家谱树到网站时,网站会扫描他们的亲戚,如果它发现匹配上现存的家谱树,它会合并现存的和新的家谱树。结果是超大的家族树创建起来了,超越了每个家谱学家的个人水平。现在,凭借着全球数百万人不断重复这个过程,我们可以众包全人类家谱树的建设。

01:51

Using this website, we were able to connect125 million people into a single family tree.

使用这个网站,我们能够在一颗家族树上连接 1.25 亿人。

02:49

Thanks to the hard work of ourgenealogists, we can go back in time hundreds of years ago. For example, hereis Alexander Hamilton, who was born in 1755. Alexander was the first USSecretary of the Treasury, but mostly known today due to a popular Broadwaymusical. We found that Alexander has deeper connections in the showbizindustry. In fact, he's a blood relative of ... Kevin Bacon!

感谢家谱学家的努力工作,我们可以回到数百年前。比如,这是亚历山大·汉密尔顿,他出生于 1755 年。亚历山大是首任美国财政部长,但主要由于一部流行的百老汇音乐剧而广为人知。我们发现亚历山大在娱乐圈有更深厚的人脉。事实上,他是——凯文·贝肯的血亲!

03:20

(Laughter)

(笑声)

03:22

Both of them are descendants of a lady fromScotland who lived in the 13th century. So you can say that Alexander Hamiltonis 35 degrees of Kevin Bacon genealogy.

他们都是13世纪一位来自苏格兰的女士的后代。所以你可以说亚历山大·汉密尔顿是 35 度凯文·贝肯的宗谱。

03:33

(Laughter)

(笑声)

03:34

And our tree has millions of stories likethat.

我们的家谱树有数百万类似的故事。

03:40

We invested significant efforts to validatethe quality of our data. Using DNA, we found that .3 percent of themother-child connections in our data are wrong, which could match the adoptionrate in the US pre-Second World War.

我们投入了不小的工作在验证数据的质量上。使用DNA,我们发现我们数据中有 0.3% 的母子关系是错误的,这可能与二战前美国的收养率相当。

03:56

For the father's side, the news is not asgood: 1.9 percent of the father-child connections in our data are wrong. And Isee some people smirk over here. It is what you think -- there are many milkmenout there. (Laughter) However, this 1.9 percent error rate in patrilinealconnections is not unique to our data. Previous studies found a similar errorrate using clinical-grade pedigrees. So the quality of our data is good, andthat should not be a surprise. Our genealogists have a profound, vestedinterest in correctly documenting their family history.

父亲方面,消息也并不乐观:我们的数据中 1.9% 的父子关系是错误的。我看到有人在这儿讪笑。这是你们在想的——外面有很多挤牛奶的人。(笑声)然而这 1.9% 的父子关系错误率不是我们数据独有的。早先使用临床级血统的研究也发现了类似的错误率。所以我们的数据质量是良好的,并且这也不应该是个意外。我们的系谱学家对正确记录他们的家族史有着浓厚的兴趣。

04:40

We can leverage this data to learnquantitative information about humanity, for example, questions aboutdemography. Here is a look at all our profiles on the map of the world. Eachpixel is a person that lived at some point. And since we have so much data, youcan see the contours of many countries, especially in the Western world. Inthis clip, we stratified the map that I've showed you based on the year ofbirths of individuals from 1400 to 1900, and we compared it to known migrationevents.

我们可以利用这些数据来了解人类的定量信息,比如,有关人口统计学的问题。这是我们的资料在世界地图上的样子。每个像素代表一个生活在特定位置的人。由于我们有很多数据,你可以看到很多国家的轮廓,尤其在西方世界。在这个视频片段中,我们把给你展示的地图根据 1400-1900 年出生的人口进行分层,并且跟已知的迁移事件比较。

05:57

Now, since these migration events aregiving the context of families, we can ask questions such as: What is thetypical distance between the birth locations of husbands and wives? Thisdistance plays a pivotal role in demography, because the patterns in whichpeople migrate to form families determine how genes spread in geographicalareas. We analyzed this distance using our data, and we found that in the olddays, people had it easy. They just married someone in the village nearby. Butthe Industrial Revolution really complicated our love life. And today, withaffordable flights and online social media, people typically migrate more than100 kilometers from their place of birth to find their soul mate.

因为这些移民时间 提供了家庭的背景,我们可以问诸如此类的问题: 丈夫和妻子出生地 的特定距离是多少? 这一距离在人口统计学中 起着重要的作用,因为人们迁移形成家庭的模式 决定了基因如何在地理位置上传播。我们使用我们的数据分析了这个距离,我们发现在古时候,人们过得很轻松。他们只是跟村子附近的某人结婚。但工业革命复杂化了我们的爱情生活。今天,凭着可负担的航班和网络社交媒体,人们通常从出生地迁移 100 多公里来寻找灵魂伴侣。

06:48

So now you might ask: OK, but who does thehard work of migrating from places to places to form families? Are these themales or the females? We used our data to address this question, and at leastin the last 300 years, we found that the ladies do the hard work of migratingfrom places to places to form families. Now, these results are statisticallysignificant, so you can take it as scientific fact that males are lazy.

所以现在你可能会问:好吧,但是谁会卖力从一个地方迁移到另一个地方去构建家庭呢? 是男人还是女人? 我们使用我们的数据解答了这个问题,至少在过去 300 年中,我们发现女性从一个地方迁移到另一个地方去构建家庭上是最辛苦的。这些结果在统计上很显著,所以你可以把男性懒惰当作科学事实。

07:18

(Laughter)

(笑声)

07:21

We can move from questions about demographyand ask questions about human health. For example, we can ask to what extentgenetic variations account for differences in life span between individuals.Previous studies analyzed the correlation of longevity between twins to addressthis question. They estimated that the genetic variations account for about aquarter of the differences in life span between individuals. But twins can becorrelated due to so many reasons, including various environmental effects or ashared household. Large family trees give us the opportunity to analyze bothclose relatives, such as twins, all the way to distant relatives, even fourthcousins. This way we can build robust models that can tease apart thecontribution of genetic variations from environmental factors. We conductedthis analysis using our data, and we found that genetic variations explain only15 percent of the differences in life span between individuals. That is fiveyears, on average. So genes matter less than what we thought before to lifespan. And I find it great news, because it means that our actions can mattermore. Smoking, for example, determines 10 years of our life expectancy -- twiceas much as what genetics determines.

我们可以把问题从人口统计学开始转向人类健康问题。比如,我们可以问遗传变异能在多大程度上影响个体的寿命差异。之前的研究通过分析双胞胎寿命的相关性来解答这个问题。他们估计出遗传变异对个体寿命差异的影响大约占 1/4。但双胞胎之间的关联有很多原因,包括多样的环境影响或共同的家庭。庞大的家谱树给了我们分析这些近亲,比如双胞胎,到远房亲戚,甚至四代表亲这样的机会。这样我们可以构建稳健的模型,从环境因素中分离出遗传变异的贡献来。我们使用数据执行了这个分析,发现遗传变异只解释了 15% 的个体寿命差异。平均而言,就是 5 年之差。所以基因对寿命的重要性比我们之前想象的少。我发现这是个好消息,因为这意味着我们的行动更为重要。举个例子,吸烟会影响大约10年的预期寿命——是基因所能影响的两倍。

08:50

We can even have more surprising findingsas we move from family trees and we let our genealogists document andcrowdsource DNA information. And the results can be amazing. It might be hardto imagine, but Uncle Bernie and his friends can create DNA forensiccapabilities that even exceed what the FBI currently has. When you place theDNA on a large family tree, you effectively create a beacon that illuminatesthe hundreds of distant relatives that are all connected to the person thatoriginated the DNA. By placing multiple beacons on a large family tree, you cannow triangulate the DNA of an unknown person, the same way that the GPS systemuses multiple satellites to find a location.

随着我们从家谱树展开,让我们的家谱学专家建档,并且众包DNA信息,我们能有更多惊奇的发现。结果将是惊人的。可能令人难以想象,伯尼叔叔和他的朋友能够创建 DNA 法医能力,甚至超过了 FBI 目前拥有的水平。当你把 DNA 放在一棵大的家谱树中,你就有效地创造了一个照亮数百个远亲的灯塔,他们都与 DNA 的拥有者有联系。通过在一棵大的家谱树中放置不同的灯塔,你现在可以对一个陌生人的 DNA 进行三角测量,就跟 GPS 系统利用不同的卫星来定位一样。

09:37

The prime example of the power of thistechnique is capturing the Golden State Killer, one of the most notoriouscriminals in the history of the US. The FBI had been searching for this personfor over 40 years. They had his DNA, but he never showed up in any policedatabase. About a year ago, the FBI consulted a genetic genealogist, and shesuggested that they submit his DNA to a genealogy service that can locatedistant relatives. They did that, and they found a third cousin of the GoldenState Killer. They built a large family tree, scanned the different branches ofthat tree, until they found a profile that exactly matched what they knew aboutthe Golden State Killer. They obtained DNA from this person and found a perfectmatch to the DNA they had in hand. They arrested him and brought him to justiceafter all these years. Since then, genetic genealogists have started workingwith local US law enforcement agencies to use this technique in order tocapture criminals. And only in the past six months, they were able to solveover 20 cold cases with this technique.

这种技术威力一个的主要例子是追捕“金州杀手”,美国历史上最臭名昭著的罪犯之一。FBI 已经寻找这人超过 40 年。他们有他的 DNA,但他从未出现在警方的数据库中。大约一年前,FBI 咨询了一位基因谱系学家,她建议他们提交他的 DNA 到可以定位远房亲戚的家谱服务平台上。FBI 这样做了,他们找到了金州杀手的第三代表亲。他们构建了一棵巨大的家谱树,扫描树上的不同分支,直到他们找到完美匹配他们所了解的金州杀手信息的人。他们从这人身上取得 DNA 并发现跟他们手上的 DNA 一致。过了这么些年,他们终于逮捕了他,并绳之与法。自那之后,基因谱系学家开始跟美国当地执法机构合作,使用这种技术来抓捕罪犯。仅仅在过去的 6 个月,他们使用这个技术就破获了超过 20 个铁证悬案。

10:56

Luckily, we have people like Uncle Bernieand his fellow genealogists These are not amateurs with a self-serving hobby.These are citizen scientists with a deep passion to tell us who we are. Andthey know that the past can hold a key to the future.

幸好,我们有这群人,像伯尼叔叔和他的家谱学同行,他们不只是业余爱好者。他们是满怀热情的公民科学家,想要揭开我们所有人身份的秘密。他们知道,过去是通向未来的钥匙。

11:16

Thank you very much. (Applause)

谢谢大家。(鼓掌)

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