刘文勇GRE写作Argument题库 Day 5

Day 5 On Balmer Island, where mopeds serve as a popular form, the population increases to 100,000 during the summer months

The following appeared in a letter to the editor of the Balmer Island Gazette.

“On Balmer Island, where mopeds serve as a popular form of transportation, the population increases to 100,000 during the summer months. To reduce the number of accidents involving mopeds and pedestrians, the town council of Balmer Island should limit the number of mopeds rented by the island's moped rental companies from 50 per day to 25 per day during the summer season. By limiting the number of rentals, the town council will attain the 50 percent annual reduction in moped accidents that was achieved last year on the neighboring island of Seaville, when Seaville's town council enforced similar limits on moped rentals.”

Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the recommendation is likely to have the predicted result. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the recommendation.

五问：

（1）“On Balmer Island, where mopeds serve as a popular form of transportation, the population increases to 100,000 during the summer months”是事实，“To reduce the number of accidents involving mopeds and pedestrians, the town council of Balmer Island should limit the number of mopeds rented by the island's moped rental companies from 50 per day to 25 per day during the summer season”是结论，值得反驳吗？

（2）事故必定都是由“ moped”这种交通工具引发的吗？行人是否也有可能造成交通事故？例如：行人不遵守交通规则、注意力不集中等。这种交通工具一定都来自租车公司吗？是否有可能私家拥有？

（3）减少“ moped”出租的数量一定会减少事故的发生吗？是否有可能造成更多的事故？请列出可能的原因。例如：出租数量减少可能导致私家车数量增加，依旧造成很多的事故。即便减少出租的数量真的能减少事故发生量，我们能确定是同比例的减少吗？是否考虑到了其他可能的因素？人口增加的比例一定吗？

（4）只针对夏季的政府政策，真的能对全年都产生影响吗？个体的特质适用于集体吗 ?

（5）临近地区和本地的情况是完全一样的吗？你能否罗列几个本地和其他地区可能不一样的因素？例如：两地人口数量上的差异，两地地貌、路况上的区别，司机驾驶技术、安全意识的差别。