刘文勇GRE写作Argument题库 Day 33

Day 33 Several recent surveys indicate that home owners are increasingly eager to conserve energy

The following appeared in a memorandum from the planning department of an electric power company.

“Several recent surveys indicate that home owners are increasingly eager to conserve energy. At the same time, manufacturers are now marketing many home appliances, such as refrigerators and air conditioners, that are almost twice as energy efficient as those sold a decade ago. Also, new technologies for better home insulation and passive solar heating are readily available to reduce the energy needed for home heating. Therefore, the total demand for electricity in our area will not increase— and may decline slightly. Since our three electric generating plants in operation for the past twenty years have always met our needs, construction of new generating plants will not be necessary.”

Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.

五问：

（1）“Several recent surveys indicate that home owners are increasingly eager to conserve energy. At the same time, manufacturers are now marketing many home appliances, such as refrigerators and air conditioners, that are almost twice as energy efficient as those sold a decade ago. Also, new technologies for better home insulation and passive solar heating are readily available to reduce the energy needed for home heating”和“our three electric generating plants in operation for the past twenty years have always met our needs”是事实，最后一句话中的 “construction of new generating plants will not be necessary”是结论，值得反驳吗？

（2）原文以几项最近的调查研究作为论据，但并未具体指明这些调查研究的普适性和有效性。而且，这些最近的研究能推测出十年乃至二十年后的状况吗？如果未来当地居民人口数量增加，那么用电需求也会增加。

（3）住户们都十分愿意节约能源，就意味着他们一定会节约能源吗？大家是否还记得这个基本的道理：主观意愿与客观事实不能简单地画上等号。即便空调与冰箱的确更加省电了，但是，随着人类社会的进步，一个家庭中的电器数目是否可能会大幅增加？这是否会导致用电量的上涨？这一点在原文的论述中并未提及。

（4）新技术已经可以使用并不意味着住户一定会使用。住户选择一项新技术的原因除了这项技术是否先进之外，是否可能还有其他的要素？例如：价格、外观设计等。

（5）原文罗列了许多可能导致用电总量下降的条件，即便这些条件都成立，它们就是所有可能用电的方面了吗？是否可能有其他导致用电量增加的因素在原文中并未被提及？你能罗列其中的一两个吗？例如：家里使用大功率的电器，加热棒、浴霸等。另外，旧的发电厂能满足用电需求就不用建新的了吗？是否还有其他建设新厂的理由？例如：旧的发电厂效率低下，污染环境等。