刘文勇GRE写作Argument题库 Day 97

Day 97 Over the past ten years, there has been a 20 percent decline in the size of the average audience at Classical Shakespeare Theatre productions

The following appeared in an e-mail sent by the marketing director of the Classical Shakespeare Theatre of Bardville.

“Over the past ten years, there has been a 20 percent decline in the size of the average audience at Classical Shakespeare Theatre productions. In spite of increased advertising, we are attracting fewer and fewer people to our shows, causing our profits to decrease significantly. We must take action to attract new audience members. The best way to do so is by instituting a ‘Shakespeare in the Park’ program this summer. Two years ago the nearby Avon Repertory Company started a ‘Free Plays in the Park’ program, and its profits have increased 10 percent since then. If we start a ‘Shakespeare in the Park’ program, we can predict that our profits will increase, too.”

Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the recommendation is likely to have the predicted result. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the recommendation.

五问：

（1）“Over the past ten years, there has been a 20 percent decline in the size of the average audience at Classical Shakespeare Theatre productions. In spite of increased advertising, we are attracting fewer and fewer people to our shows”“our profits to decrease significantly”和“Two years ago the nearby Avon Repertory Company started a ‘Free Plays in the Park’ program, and its profits have increased 10 percent since then”是事实， “We must take action to attract new audience members. The best way to do so is by instituting a ‘Shakespeare in the Park’ program this summer”是结论，值得反驳吗？

（2）原文使用了简单的类比论证，将 Classical Shakespeare Theatre of Bardville与nearby Avon Repertory Company相比较；但是原文中是否给出了足够的信息来证明这两个对象之间是可以类比的呢？例如，地理位置的优越性、价格、目标群体等方面是一致的吗？（请回顾基础理论部分，只有达成了哪些条件，我们才能够认为两个对象之间是可以类比的？）

（3）两年前的情况和现在的情况一定是一致的吗？我们能否简单地将两年前的经验挪到今天来使用？（请回顾基础理论部分对于时间轴论证的讨论。）另外，两个活动之间是否会有冲突？已有的活动可能已经吸引了很多附近的观众。

（4）原文中是否给出了足够的信息证明 Avon Repertory Company的利润增长是由于举办了“ Free Plays in the Park”这个活动？两者之间的因果关系清楚吗？是唯一的因果关系吗？是最重要的因果关系吗？

（5）利润可能受到哪些因素的影响？例如：人工成本、经营成本等。是否所有的因素都会如愿地朝着需要的方向发展？有更多的人参与就意味着一定会产生更高的利润吗？为什么不一定？你能具体描述一下可能出现的相悖的情形吗？例如：举办这个活动的费用超过了观众增加所带来的收入。