刘文勇GRE写作Argument题库 Day 157

Day 157 Five years ago Fish Emporium started advertising in the magazine Exotic Pets Monthly

The following appeared in a memo from the marketing director of Top Dog Pet Stores.

“Five years ago Fish Emporium started advertising in the magazine Exotic Pets Monthly. Their stores saw sales increase by 15 percent after their ads began appearing in the magazine. The three Fish Emporium stores in Gulf City saw an even greater increase than that. Because Top Dog Pet Stores is based in Gulf City, it seems clear that we should start placing our own ads in Exotic Pets Monthly. If we do so, we will be sure to reverse the recent trend of declining sales and start making a profitsagain.”

Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.

五问：

（1）“Five years ago Fish Emporium started advertising in the magazine Exotic Pets Monthly. Their stores saw sales increase by 15 percent after their ads began appearing in the magazine. The three Fish Emporium stores in Gulf City saw an even greater increase than that. Because Top Dog Pet Stores is based in Gulf City”是事实，“it seems clear that we should start placing our own ads in Exotic Pets Monthly”是结论，值得反驳吗？

（2）文中以五年前的情况与现在进行比对是正确的做法吗？随着时间的变化，是否可能产生经济情况的变化？数字与比例一定是等价的吗？销售总额增长 15%意味着每一个店铺的销售额都是增长的吗？

（3）Fish Emporium stores的营业额增长一定是由于他们投放了广告吗？两件事情同时出现一定意味着二者之间是因果关系吗？是否还有其他因素？例如：商品种类增多、打折促销活动等。

（4）在 Gulf City的三家店铺出现营业额大幅增长的现象，与广告投放的关系明确吗？在 Gulf City以外的店铺出现了什么样的变化？这种变化与杂志上投放的广告关系大吗？是否可能存在这样的情况，即当地的销量增长是由于养鱼户的增加而非广告的引导？如果类似的可能性真的存在，我们能否简单照搬 Fish Emporium公司的经验？

（5）我们公司最近的销售额下降是由于什么原因，是缺乏广告推广还是产品本身的问题？获取利润除了增加销售额外还要降低成本，做广告是否会增加成本、产生副作用？