刘文勇GRE写作Argument题库 Day 160

Day 160 Last October, the city of Belleville installed high-intensity lighting in its central business district

The following appeared in a recommendation from the President of the Amburg Chamber of Commerce.

“Last October, the city of Belleville installed high-intensity lighting in its central business district, and vandalism there declined almost immediately. The city of Amburg, on the other hand, recently instituted police patrols on bicycles in its business district. However, the rate of vandalism here remains constant. Since high-intensity lighting is clearly the most effective way to combat crime, we recommend using the money that is currently being spent on bicycle patrols to install such lighting throughout Amburg. If we install this high-intensity lighting, we will significantly reduce crime rates in Amburg.”

Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the recommendation is likely to have the predicted result. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the recommendation.

五问：

（1）“Last October, the city of Belleville installed high-intensity lighting in its central business district, and vandalism there declined almost immediately. The city of Amburg, on the other hand, recently instituted police patrols on bicycles in its business district. However, the rate of vandalism here remains constant”是事实，“we recommend using the money that is currently being spent on bicycle patrols to install such lighting throughout Amburg”是结论，值得反驳吗？

（2）文中举例的时间点是 last October，过去发生的事情对今后发生的事情是否能够起到指导作用？此处是否犯了时间轴论证的错误（过去不等于现在，现在不等于将来）？另外，文中提及的在 Belleville市的中心商业区安装的高强度路灯一定能够适用于任何商业区吗？因为原文中并没有给出详细的因果论证，我们能否简单地认为 Belleville这个城市的破坏公物的行为减少一定是由于安装高亮度的路灯导致的？也许还存在其他因素，如客流量减少、人口素质提高等。

（3）Amburg这个城市采用自行车巡警在商业区巡查的方法没有获得成功，是否意味着这个方法在其他地区也不会成功？

（4）原文在谈及破坏公物的行为时用的都是比例而非绝对数量，这在推理时可能会导致哪种谬误？数字与比例不一定等价，根据这个比例所得出的结论不一定有参考意义。

（5）适合 Belleville这个城市的措施就一定适合 Amburg这个城市吗？对不同地区来说，制约策略是否应有所差异？因为不同地区的特点是不一样的，商业区的人流量可能更大。另外，两种策略之间一定是非此即彼的吗？是否存在第三种策略或者两种策略相结合的可能性？例如：在商业区安装高强度照明灯，在居民区加强巡查警力，在其他区域安装监控设备等。