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Black Monday
黑色星期一
Never far from bearish minds is the 1987 crash,which saw the Dow Jones Industrial Average Plunge 508 points on Black Monday.
熊市人士的心中,殷鉴不远的是1987年的大崩盘:道琼斯工业指数在黑色星期一惨跌508点。
That 508-point plunge on Black Monday was worsened by so-called portfolio insurance,
黑色星期一508点的狂跌,被所谓“证券保险”火上加油。
which is computerized programs designed to bail investors out of stocks in a downturn by selling stock futures.
这种电脑程序设计的目的,就是要在股票下跌时大卖股票期货,以助投资人杀出股市。
blue chip
绩优股
And while other blue-chip firms such as Sears,IBM and General Motors,floundered in the 1980s,
1980年代,当其他绩优股如西尔斯百货、IBM和通用汽车在挣扎时,
most GE units surged ahead and consistently hit Welch's target of being No.1or No.2 in every market.
奇异集团大多数的机构却都能大幅上涨,并且如Welch所愿,在各该领域中都能维持第一或第二的成绩。
Like their American counterparts,Japanese executives cheerfully overpaid for their late-80s acquisitions.
日本企业主管也和他们的美国同侪一样,在1980年代末期高高兴兴地花冤枉钱进行一堆购并案。
But the Japanese made another fundamental miscalculation,
但日本人犯了另一个基本的错误。
says Gray Saxonhouse,an economics professor at the University of Michigan:
密歇根大学经济学教授Gray Saxonhouse指出:
"They had a faith in American landmarks a faith in American blue-chip names."
“他们对美国的陆标太有信心,对美国的名牌企业也同样太有信心。”
bull market
牛市、多头市场
Some analysts,dwelling on the fundamentals rather than superstition,
一些坚守基本观念而不盲从的分析家认为,
think the epic bull market that began in 1982 has finally entered a long season of bearishness
自1982年来持久不衰的牛市,终于进入了长期的熊市,
because of the likelihood of very show economic growth in the 1990s.
因为1990年代的经济增长似乎会非常缓慢。
Share prices in the relentlessly upbeat stock market now stand at skyhigh levels by historical standards,
在这毫不犹豫向前冲的股市中,现在的股价指数站在历史新高点,
and dividend yields have fallen to near record lows-
但股利却几乎掉到创纪录的低档——
classic signals that the bull market that began 2 1/2 years ago has got dangerously long in the tooth.
这是很典型的警讯:两年半前开始的牛市已经持续太久到摇摇欲坠的地步了。
corporate bond
公司债券
The average aggressive-growth fund has risen 29% in the past 12 months.Corporate-bond funds gained 13% overall.
高增长基金在过去12个月平均涨幅为29%,而公司债券基金涨幅为13%。
As a graduate business student at Pennsylvania's Wharton School,Milken made junk bonds a focus of his scholarship.
垃圾债券大王米尔肯还在宾州大学华顿商学院念研究生时,他就以研究垃圾债券得到奖学金。
Despite their reputation for high risk,he found that the securities showed a history of few defaults.
他发现虽然垃圾债券风险有名的高,但是在过去却很少出现问题。
Milken believed the securities' relatively high yields,typically 3% to 5% more than any investment-grade corporate bond,were more than enough compensation for that slightly increased risk.
Milken相信这种证券在利润上比任何的投资级公司债券都要高3%至5%的情形下,远可以弥补稍微偏高的风险所可能带来的损失。
default
违约
Greenspan's strong hint last week that the Federal Reserve will continue to push up interest rates
上周Greenspan强烈暗示联邦储备银行将持续调高利率,
heightened worries that more governments with over-leveraged portfolios heavily based on interest rate bets could be forced to default.
如此一来,更多的政府就更要担心他们主要靠赌利率才能维持的一个以债养债的局面即将崩溃,使他们被迫违约。 

Poorer parents,meanwhile,may be tempted to borrow more than they ever expect to repay:
同时,比较贫困的家长可能受到诱惑,去借些自己根本没打算还的钱。
the default rate on government-backed loans is roughly 22% and bound to rise.
政府提供的贷款中,违约不还的比例是22%,而且一定会再升高。
dividend
股利
But sales rose even faster,and Ford Motor raised its dividend 12.5%,
但是营业额增长得更快,而且福特汽车的股利增长了12.5%,
the first increase since 1989.
是自1989年来的首次增长。
Dow-Jones Industrial Average
道琼斯工业指数
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed this week at 2,909,1.
道琼斯工业指数本周收盘时是2909.1点,
up 6.3% in the past four weeks and up 544 points,or 23%,since its October low.
在过去四周来上涨了6.3%,比起去年10月的低点,涨了23%,即544点。
The stock market gave the flagging recovery an apparent vote of noconfidence last week when the Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged 120 points on Friday.
股市上周对于虚弱的景气复苏明显投下了不信任票,以致周五时道琼斯工业指数大跌120点。
Argentina's stock market rose 53% in 1993,for example,
例如阿根廷股市在1993年增长53%,
while Brazil's more than doubled in value.
而巴西股市的价值增长超过一倍。
institutional investor
机构投资者
Another source of fear is institutional investor.
另一个值得畏惧的团体是机构投资者。
While unseating corporate directors is even more difficult than dislodging political incumbents,
因为要把企业主管拉下台比罢免现任政府官员还要困难,
big investors are using their vast holdings to put pressure on board members.
所以大股东乃利用庞大的持股来向董事会施压。
investment bank
投资银行
Thanks to record sales of everything from derivatives to new stock and bond issues to merger financing,
由于所有业务的营业额都创新高,包括衍生性金融商品、新股与债券发行,还有并购融资,
the pretax profits of U.S.brokers and investment banks zoomed to an unprecedented $8.9 billion last year.
美国证券经纪商与投资银行在去年的税前盈余增加到史无前倒的89亿美元。
junk bond
垃圾债券
When junk-bond king Michael Milken copped a plea last April,
当垃圾债券大王Michael Milken去年4月认罪之时,
he disappointed everyone who had been hoping to see the white-collar trial of the decade.
他让所有期待观看一场1980年代白领犯罪大审判的人失望了。
NASDAQ
美国场外交易市场自动报价系统
That kind of talk worries officials at the New York Stock Exchange:
这种谈话使纽约股市的人员担心。
trading technology is advancing so rapidly that the Big Board could be bypassed by such new high-tech systems as the Arizona Stock Exchange,the NASDAQ and now Globex.
撮合交易的科技进步神速,纽约股市的大看板可能被下列高科技的系统所取代:亚利桑那证券交易所、美国场外交易市场自动报价系统以及现在的全球交易所。
Nikkei Stock Average
日经股价指数
When the volatile Nikkei stock index plunged 3.9% last Monday,
当上周反复无常地日经股价指数大跌3.9%后,
many shell-shocked Tokyo investors feared that the entire economy was heading toward the abyss.
许多被吓坏的东京投资者害怕整个经济又将跌入深渊。
Even more frightening was the more recent,and more devastating,collapse of the Japanese stock market
更恐怖的是:更接近现在、更惨烈的日本股市崩盘,
that began in 1990,when the bloated Nikkei average plummeted from nearly 39,000 to less than 15,000 in 2 1/2 years.
高涨的日经平均指数在两年半内从将近39000点跌到15000点以下。
public offering
公开发行
Falcon Cable TV,a Los Angeles-based company with 1.1 million cable subscribers,
位于洛杉矶,拥有110万用户的Falcon Cable TV
last week halted plans for a $125 million public offering in the wake of the FCC order. 

上周因为FCC的命令,而停止了一项1.25亿美元的公开发行计划。
S&P 500
标准普尔500股价指数
The S&P 500 gained even more than the Dow during 1991,rising 26%,
标准普尔500股价指数在1991年上涨26%,
and NASDAQ,the most popular measure for small stocks,surged a record 57%.
超过道琼斯指数,而小型股的最流行指标NASDAQ则飙涨57%。
In Chicago the Mercantile Exchange twice halted trading in S&P 500 futures contracts,which represent the stocks in the Standard & Poor's 500 index.
在芝加哥的商品交易所,两次中止代表标准普尔500股价指数的标准普尔500期货交易。
SEC
证券与交易委员会
Under new SEC rules,companies must provide,in their annual report to shareholders,some value for the stock options granted to executives.
根据证券与交易委员会的规则。企业在提供给股东的年度报告中,一定要披露提供给公司高级主管的认股权的部分价值。
Boom,Boom,Ka-boom!
涨,涨,爆掉!!
1.The day was star-crossed:
这一天是命运多舛的:
Friday the 13th in the month of October,on the eve of the second anniversary of a devastating market crash.
10月的13号星期五,正好是一场股市崩盘灾难的两周年前夕。
"I'm telling you,psychology is really funny.People get crazy in situations like that,"said portfolio strategist Elaine Garzarelli.
投资组合策略专家Elaine Garzarelli说:“我跟你说,心理是奇怪的东西。在那种情况下人们真的疯掉了。”
Last week Friday the 13th lived up to its frightful reputation.
上周的13号星期五并没有辜负它恐怖的名声。
After drifting lower at a sleepy pace for most of the day,the Dow Jones industrial average abruptly lurched into a hair-raising sky dive in the final hour of trading.
在大半天之内以令人打瞌睡的速度往下游移的道琼斯工业指数,突然在最后一小时爆出令人发指的长黑行情,
By the time the 4 p.m. closing bell halted the rout,the index had dropped a nightmarish 190.58 points,
当4点整的收盘铃声响起,止住这一败涂地的狂泻时,指数已经暴跌了恶梦般的190.58点,
or nearly 7%,to close at 2569.26.
将近7%跌幅,而以2569.26点作收。
2.The sell-off was the sharpest since the market plunged 508 points on Oct.19,1987.
这次是自1987年10月19日股市崩盘508点以来的最大跌幅。
In terms of points,it was the second largest loss in Wall Street history;
以点数来说,是华尔街有史以来第二大的损失;
in percentage,the day ranked twelfth worst.
以百分比来说,是排名第12高跌幅。
"It's total emotional and psychological chaos,"said Eugene Peroni,an analyst with Janney Montgomery Scott,a Philadelphia brokerage firm.
Eugene Peroni是费城的证券公司Janney Montgomery Scott的分析师,他说:“这是情绪与心理双重的大混乱。
"People are dumping everything.A great deal of money is being lost."
大家什么都卖。大把的钞票就这么没了。”
3.The drop invited instant comparison with the month's two historic calamities:
这次重挫很快引来与历史上发生在10月的另两次大祸的比较:
the 1987 collapse on Oct.19 and the 1929 debacle on Oct.29.
1987年10月19日的崩盘与1929年10月29日的长黑。
Particularly gnawing was the memory that 1987's Black Monday was preceded by a Friday plunge of 108.35 points.
特别令投资人心生恐惧的是1987年的“黑色星期一”之前的那个星期五交易日,也是大跌108.35点。
Last week's drop-off rekindled fears
上周的暴跌重新挑起人们的害怕:
that an era of heedless borrowing by corporations and the Federal Government might finally be coming to grief.
企业与联邦政府不加思索就拼命借贷的时代可能终于到了悲哀的一刻。
At the very least,the rout reminded investors that the stock market is a volatile place where fortunes can vanish at the touch of a computer key.
这次溃败至少证明股市仍是一个变化多端的所在,财产可以在弹指之间消失无踪。
After one frantic hour of selling conducted to a large extent by program trades,nearly $200 billion of stock values were wiped out last week. 

在上周,只要疯狂的一个钟点,大部分通过电脑进行的杀出动作就使股市损失了将近2000亿美元。
4.The Bush Administration moved swiftly to avert any sense of crisis after the market closed.
布什么政府在收市后迅速行动,消除人民心中的危机感。
Declared Treasury Secretary Nicholas Brady:
财政部长Nicholas Brady宣称:
"It's important to recognize that today's stock market decline doesn't signal any fundamental change in the condition of the economy.
“我们必须了解,今天的股市长黑并不意味经济状况有任何根本的改变。
The economy remains well balanced,and the outlook is for continued moderate growth."
国内经济相当稳定,而展望未来,仍可继续有温和的增长。”
But Massachusetts Democrat Edward Markey,who chairs a House subcommittee on telecommunications and finance,vowed to hold hearings this week on the stock market slide.
但是麻州民主党众议员Edward Markey,目前主掌众院的一个通讯与财政小组委员会,他坚称要本周针对股市大跌举行听证会。
Said he:"This is the second heart attack.
他说:“这是第二次心脏病发作了。
My hope is that before we have the inevitable third heart attack,we pay attention to these problems."
我希望在不可避免的第三次发作来到之前,我们应该注意这些问题。”
5.Experts found no shortage of culprits to blame for the latest debacle.
对于最近的这次暴跌,专家不愁找不到理由来怪罪。
A series of downbeat realizations converged on Friday,
在星期五,一堆悲观的事全凑在一块儿,
ranging from signs of a new burst of inflation to sagging corporate profits to troubles in the junk-bond market that has fueled major takeovers.
包括通货膨胀爆发的新迹象,企业低落的利润,以及促成大型购并案的垃圾债券市场出毛病。
The singular event that shook investors was the faltering of a $6.75 billion labor-management buyout of UAL,the parent company of United Airlines,the second largest U.S.carrier.
至于攻溃股市人心的单一事件,则是美国第二大的联合航空公司一桩未谈拢的购并案。联航母公司UAL的劳资双方合作欲以67.5亿美元买下UAL,但是没有谈成。
"That's when all hell broke loose,"said Robert Newman,a floor trader for Equitrade Partners.
Equitrade Partners公司的交易员Robert Newman说:“时至于此,一切都完了。
"It was very reminiscent of something I do not care to think about."
这次事件,跟我想都不愿想的一件往事实在太类似了。”
6.On one point most thoughtful Wall Streeters agreed:
有头脑的华尔街人士都同意一点:
the market had reached such dizzying heights that a correction of some sort seemed almost inevitable.
股市指数冲到令人“往下看会头晕”的高点时,某种“回档整理”似乎是无可避免的。
Propelled by favorable economic news and a wave of multibillion-dollar takeovers,stocks had soared more than 1,000 points since the 1987 crash.
受到经济好消息及一波波数十亿元的购并案激励,股市自1987年崩盘以来已经上涨超过1000点。
But by last August some Wall streeters were clearly worried.
可是到了8月,有些人就明显开始担心。
Noted Donald Stone,a floor specialist for Lasker,Stone & Stern:
Lasker,Stone & Stern的交易专员Donald Stone说:
"I've been on the trading floor for 39 years,and I've never seen the market go up so fast for so long without a major break."
“我在交易场39年了,从来没有看过市场上涨这么快,而且这么久没有遇到一次重大的挫败。”
Yet the bulls kept on running.
但是牛市持续着。
Just last Monday the market closed at a historic peak of 2791.41,
上周一的收盘指数是历史新高的2791.41点,
its fifth record high in as many sessions.
也是之前连续五个交易日迭创新高以来的最顶点。
7.The looming anniversary of 1987's crash had prompted many on Wall Street to search for comparisons between 1987's boom and this year's.
在1987年崩盘日的周年即将来到之际,不由得华尔街不比较一下当年与今年的牛市盛况。 

In an investor newsletter dated Oct.1,Shearson Lehman Hutton cited twelve ways in which this year's rally seemed more likely to last.
Shearson Lehman Hutton在10月1日发出的投资人通讯中,举出12例说明今年的涨势比较可能持续。
Among them:
其中三项:
-Interest rates were rising then,while they are stable or falling now.
——彼时利率在上升,而此时是稳定或下降。
-The economy was growing unsustainably in 1987,but more gradually this year.
——1987年的经济增长太快,无支撑力道,而此时较缓和。
-Investor sentiment was wildly bullish then,and far more cautious now.
——彼时牛市心理极为强大,此时则谨慎多多。
8.Yet this year's rally has rested on some shaky foundations.
但是今年的涨势其实也是站在不稳的基础之上。
Chief among them is the relentless pace of corporate takeovers,
究其大者,应是马不停蹄的企业购并。
which enriched everyone on Wall Street,from stockholders to investment bankers.
华尔街的投资客到投资银行都发了财。
But the buyouts have been fueled by financing from a junk-bond market that was severely weakened last month
但是供给购并资金的垃圾债券市场在上个月受到重创,
when Canadian developer Robert Campeau nearly defaulted on $1.27 billion of debt payments on loans that he had used to acquire Allied Stores and Federated Department Stores.
因为加拿大资本家Robert Campeau有了大麻烦。他收购Allied Stores与Federated百货公司的贷款中,有12.7亿美元的到期债务差点付不出来。
In the wake of Campeau's problems,the money for new takeovers has begun to dry up.
Campeau的麻烦影响所及,新的购并案已失去最大金主。
9.Meanwhile,the Government's chief early-warning gauge of inflation indicated last week that the U.S.economy may be headed for trouble.
在此同时,政府最主要的通货膨胀早期预警系统上周指出美国经济可能既然出问题。
The Labor Department said its Producer Price Index rose 0.9% in September,
劳工部的9月批发物价指数较8月上涨0.9%,
or about 10% on an annual basis,to break a three-month string of declining wholesale prices.
较去年同期则上涨10%,打破连续三个月的指数下降走势。
Earlier in the week,Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan suggested that the Fed remains wary of inflation
上星期初,联邦主席艾伦•格林斯潘暗示联邦储备委员会仍旧注意到通彭的可能性,
and therefore would be averse to easing interest rates.
因为将避免调降利率。
That was not what Wall Street wanted to hear.
这可不是华尔街愿意听到的。
10.The heaviest blow to the market came Friday afternoon.
最致命的一击发生在星期五下午。
n a three-paragraph statement.
在简短三段话的声明中,
UAL said a labor-management group headed by Chairman Stephen Wolf had failed to get enough  financing to acquire United.
UAL说由董事长斯蒂芬•沃尔夫领导的劳资集团无法凑足购并联航的资金。
Several banks had apparently balked at the deal,which was to be partly financed through junk bonds.
部分由垃圾债券供给资金的交易显然让银行却步。
The takeover group said it would submit a revised bid "in the near term,"
收购集团说它“在近期内”将会修正并重新出价,
but the announcement stunned investors who had come to view the United deal as the latest sure thing in the 1980s buyout binge.
可是UAL的声明已经吓坏了投资人,因为他们以为联航购并案的交易应该是1980年代购并狂潮中,绝对没问题的一宗买卖。
Said John Downey,a trader at the Chicago Board Options Exchange:
芝加哥选择权交易所的交易员John Downey说:
"The airline stocks have looked like attractive takeover targets.
“航空公司股票向来是很诱人的购并目标。
But with the United deal in trouble,everyone started to wonder what other deals might not go through."
但是假如连联航购并案都会出问题,大家即开始猜疑还有多少交易能够过关。”
 

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