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2020年经济学人 自由兑换——特快专递(2)

所属教程:经济学人(中英对照+MP3)

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2021年01月13日

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Are SDRS an appropriate crisis-fighting tool? The IMF reports that several poorer countries have called for it, and that members are discussing the idea.

SDRS是应对危机的恰当工具吗?IMF报告称,几个较贫穷的国家已经提出了这一要求,而且成员国正在讨论这一想法。

Rich countries are offering their citizens wads of cash with very few strings attached, say supporters.

支持者说,富裕国家给他们的公民提供大量现金,几乎不带附加条件。

Why shouldn't the IMF do the same for the world's governments? Some economists want a huge allocation of SDRS, worth $4trn.

为什么IMF不也为世界各国政府这么做呢?一些经济学家希望获得价值4万亿美元的SDRS。

There are several hurdles in the way and these could take months to overcome.

在这条路上也存在一些障碍,还需要数月的时间去克服。

Most important, America is reluctant to issue any SDRS at all, let alone $4trn-worth.

最重要的是,美国完全不愿发行SDRS,更别说价值4万亿美元的了。

Its opposition stems from a belief that the IMF should not be printing money (when converted, SDRS increase the amount of cash in circulation).

对该想法的反对源于这样一种信念,即IMF不应该印钞(当兑换时,SDRS会增加流通中的现金数量)。

And, like other countries, it also dislikes the idea of handouts that come with so few strings attached.

而且,和其他国家一样,它也不喜欢这种几乎没有附加条件的施舍。

What if the financial lifeline allowed countries to slacken the pace of reforms, or made life easier for Iran?

如果金融生命线能让各国放慢改革的步伐,或者让伊朗的日子好过些呢?

The IMF is supposed to support governments facing temporary liquidity problems, but also to insist on restructuring any debts that are unsustainable.

IMF应该支持那些面临暂时性流动资产问题的政府,但也应该坚持重组任何不可持续的债务。

An SDR allocation is described as liquidity support by its advocates, but it could help an otherwise insolvent country pay off its creditors.

一次SDR分配被其倡导者描述为流动性支持,但它可能有助于一个本来就资不抵债的国家偿还债权人。

America's opposition matters. Issuing SDRS worth more than $648bn would require approval from its Congress.

美国的在野党是关键。发行价值超过6480亿美元的SDRS将需要得到国会的批准。

Even a smaller issuance would require 85% of votes at the IMF. Uncle Sam, with a 16.5% share, has a veto.

即便是规模较小的发行,也需要获得IMF 85%的投票。拥有16.5%份额的美国拥有否决权。

Others point out that securing an SDR allocation would mean spending too much political capital for too little gain.

另一些人指出,确保SDR的分配将意味着花费太多的政治资本而获得的收益太少。

Two-thirds would go to rich countries or those with plenty of reserves. In 2009 183bn SDRS were issued to help fight the global financial crisis.

三分之二的SDR将流向富裕国家或拥有大量外汇储备的国家。2009年,发行了1830亿的SDRS去帮助对抗全球金融危机。

But Ousmene Mandeng of Economics Advisory, a consultancy, finds that emerging markets

但是Economics Advisory咨询公司的Ousmene Mandeng发现,2009年至2010年,

(excluding China and members of the European Union) swapped just 1.9bn for cash in 2009-10.

新兴市场(不包括中国和欧盟成员国)仅用19亿美元换取现金。

However, SDRS do not have to be used to be useful. Their very presence on balance-sheets frees up dollars.

但SDRS不一定要被用来发挥什么作用。它们在资产负债表上的存在放开了美元。

And though the sums involved might be too small to matter to many countries,

尽管涉及的金额可能太小,对许多国家来说无关紧要,

the share of a $500bn issuance flowing to the likes of Liberia or South Sudan would be worth 7-8% of GDP,

但流入利比里亚或南苏丹等国的价值5000亿美元的发行份额将相当于GDP的7-8%,

says Sergi Lanau of the Institute of International Finance, an industry group. With global demand collapsing and the world scrambling for dollars,

国际金融研究所的Sergi Lanau说到。在全球需求崩溃、全球争抢美元之际,

now is not the time to dwell on the question of whether countries face solvency or liquidity crises.

现在不是讨论各国是否面临偿付能力或流动性危机的时候。

Poor countries just need help, fast. It is worth taking some risks to make sure they get it.

贫穷国家只需要帮助,而且要快。为了确保他们得到帮助,冒一些风险是值得的。

It is perhaps no surprise that America has doubts about an instrument first designed to reduce the dollar's dominance.

美国对一种最初旨在削弱美元主导地位的工具产生怀疑,或许并不令人意外。

Keynes proposed bancor just after sterling lost its sway.

就在英镑失去影响力之后,凯恩斯提出了bancor。

It might take the emergence of a serious challenger to the dollar'

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