国家地理:为什么病毒让我们措手不及(5)

What's it been like to watch the coronavirus pandemic unfold nearly three decades after I wrote that a pandemic would unfold in pretty much this way? It's induced a strange vertigo, to be honest. It's also sparked an unfamiliar kind of solipsism, enough to make me wonder: If I had made the case for surveillance and preparation more forcefully back then -- that is, if I had written a better book -- would we be here now?

在我写过一场大流行会以这种方式爆发的三十年后，亲眼目睹冠状病毒大流行的发生是什么感觉？老实说，这引起了一种奇怪的眩晕。它还引发了一种陌生的唯我主义，这足以让我怀疑：如果我当时能更有力地阐明监测和准备的理由--也就是说，如果我写了一本更好的书，我们现在还会是这样的处境吗？

Still, there's something enlightening about reading the book's stories about the epidemics from the last century, when new viruses kept emerging, raging through a population, and eventually dying out. But never since the 1918-19 influenza pandemic has any been on this scale, and never with this ferocious mixture of transmissibility and lethality. We almost learned the right lessons in the 1990s, and then we ignored them; maybe this time, with prediction having become reality, the lessons will stick.

阅读这本书中关于上世纪的流行病的故事，还是有所启发的，当时新的病毒不断出现、在人群中肆虐，最终消声匿迹。但自1918至1919年的流感大流行以来，从未发生如此大规模的疫情，也从未发生传染性和致死率都这么高的疫情。在20世纪90年代我们几乎学到教训，后来却又忽略它们；或许这一次，眼看预测已经变成现实，我们终于会记取教训。