华尔街的赚钱经 第10期:鱼和熊掌兼顾的投资智慧(2)

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Deflation

通货紧缩型投资

Portfolio preparation is easier for deflationists. Put a chunk of money into long-term Treasury bonds and much of the rest into cash and some municipal bonds.

通货紧缩论者要构建投资组合相对更为容易可将大部分钱购置长期美国国债，剩余的钱，一部分存现，一部分购入市政债券。

If broad-based deflation materializes, long-term Treasury papers are likely to surge. The bonds' fixed-income stream, meanwhile, would be worth increasingly more relative to falling consumer prices.

如果大范围通货紧缩成为现实，长期国债便极有可能会升值。而与此同时，债券的固定收益同消费价格下跌的关联日益密切。

Round out your deflation portfolio with a big slug of cash. Though it won't generate much of a return in a low-rate, deflationary environment, cash in the bank will gain value as prices fall.

如果你对经济的预期是通货紧缩，那么就在你的投资组合中保留大量的现金吧。把现金存在银行，在低利率、通货紧缩的环境下产生不了大的收益，不过随着物价的下跌，存在银行里的现金实际上是升值的。

Insurance Component: Commodities react most drastically to surprise inflation, so they should be part of your insurance. If inflation arises, companies such Coca-Cola, tobacco giant Altria, and toothpaste maker Colgate-Palmolive will have some pricing power.

保险无素：假使通胀不期而至，大宗商品期货会有最大的收益，所以应当将其作为一项保险撞施。如果通胀爆发，可囚可乐公司、烟草巨头奥驰亚集团、牙膏生产商高露洁棕榄等企业便有了定价权。

Goldilocks Economy

金发女孩经济型

Maybe, just, maybe, world bankers will get this right. and the economy will experience neither severe inflation nor severe deflation.

可能，仅仅是可能一一全世界的银行家都很了解这一点——经济既没有严重的通货膨胀也没有严重的通货紧缩。

"We think most likely the central banks of the World will get this close enough to right we will settle in close to a relatively benign inflation rate of between 1.5% and 2.5%," says Aaron Gurwitz, head of global investment strategy at Barclays Wealth.

巴克莱全球投资策略主管亚伦·格威茨说，“我们认为，各国央行最终极有可能将通胀率保持在相对温和的水平，即介于1.5%至2.5%之间。”

"In such a 'Goldilocks' scenario--where the economy is neither too hot nor too cold—risky assets would do best, so equities and bonds with some equity characteristics should receive the emphasis," says Scott Wolle, portfolio manager of the AIM Balanced-Risk Allocation Fund.

AIM Balanced-Risk Allocation基金投资组合经理斯科特·沃勒说：“在‘金发女孩’经济时期一一经济既不过热也不过冷，风险资产会有最好的表现，股票和带有股票性质的债券应当是关注的重点。”

For the bond component, pick a fund such as the Fidelity Total Bond fund that largely owns high-grade, intermediate-term corporate bonds and mortgages, along with government and and agency debt.

债券部分可以选择一支基金，比如富达债券总指数基金，该基金持有高等级中期企业债券、抵押贷款及政府和政府机构债务。

Insurance Component: Just in case the Goldilocks scenario is wrong , you will need insurance against either inflation or deflation. Pick up inflation protection through a commodity ETF, and deflation protection with long-term Treasury papers. Cash also is OK in either situation.

保险元素·假设关于金发女孩经济的预期是错误的，那么你需要抵御通货膨胀和通货紧缩的双重凤险。可以购入大宗商品交易所买卖基金来应对通货膨胀、长期国债来应对通货紧缩。现金则是可以同时应对两种情况的法宝。