电动汽车的“春天”？

电动汽车的“春天”？

更加环保的电动汽车销量处于拐点，指数级增长在前方招手（即使所充的电能全部来自煤炭，其排放量也比可比的汽油汽车低20%-30%）。面对这几天持续“浓郁”的雾霾困扰，这似乎算是一个好消息吧？

测试中可能遇到的词汇和知识：

beckon召唤；吸引['bek(ə)n]

macro巨大的，大量的['mækrəʊ]

trajectory轨道，轨线[trə'dʒɛktəri]

component成分；组件[kəm'pəʊnənt]

gigawatt千兆瓦；十亿瓦特['gɪgəwɒt]

scenario方案；情节[sɪ'nɑːrɪəʊ]

guzzle狂饮；暴食['gʌz(ə)l]

Electric vehicles: amp it up（854 words）

By Dan Bogler

Global electric vehicle sales are at an inflection point where exponential growth beckons,similar to the adoption of solar panels a few years ago. And it is an emerging market,China,that is leading the way.

According to estimates compiled by Medley Global Advisors,a macro research service owned by the FT,there will be more than 2m EVs on the road by the end of this year,up 60 per cent on 2015. On the current trajectory that will increase tenfold to 20m globally by 2020 and,according to the International Energy Agency,could reach 150m by 2040,if the most ambitious targets for containing global warming are met（see chart).

China is by far the largest market for EVs,with more than 300,000 expected to be sold this year — an annual growth rate of 120 per cent — and an official target of 5m EVs on the road by 2020. And while Tesla hogs the headlines,at least in the west,China already has 25 companies building 51 models of electric cars.

One reason mass adoption is coming closer is the rapid decline in production costs as economies of scale increase. Battery costs,the critical component,are already down from over $1,000 per kilowatt hour in 2010 to $268 today and expected to drop to $100/kWh by 2020.

Capacity is ramping up,with Tesla’s Gigafactory expected to produce 35 gigawatt hours within three years,while LG Chem in Korea is more than doubling its Li-on battery output to 20 GWh and two Chinese facilities — Lishen and CATL — are upgrading from below 5 GWh to 20 GWh and 25 GWh,respectively.

New EV models already cost less than $40,000 and within a decade they could become cheaper than conventional cars,with an average price of about $20,000.

Running costs are another reason for optimism,since EVs are inherently more efficient. A traditional internal combustion engine only converts 30 per cent of its fuel input into motion,with the rest lost to heat,sound and energy. EVs,meanwhile,have an efficiency rate of 80 per cent,so charging one costs about $500 a year in the US compared with the $1,400 spent on gasoline every year — despite America’s subsidised gasoline prices.

At the same time,range is improving with the latest Tesla Model 3 and the GM Bolt able to travel 200 miles between charges and a new Mercedes-Benz SUV promised for 2019 having a range of 300 miles. The necessary infrastructure is also being put in place. China already has 85,000 public charging stations,with the US and several European countries each having between 10,000 and 20,000.

Even so,EV sales still depend heavily on government incentives,especially since auto manufacturers are currently losing money on every unit sold. Some 90 per cent of new EV sales this year have taken place in eight markets — China,the US,the Netherlands,Norway,the UK,Japan,Germany and France — which all have generous provisions for EV sales.

But while several European nations are planning to phase out such payments in the next five years and US policy is up in the air given the election of Donald Trump,China（and Japan) are likely to continue with their subsidy schemes. Several other EMs,notably India,may soon introduce them to reduce pollution.

This is because EVs are simply and demonstrably cleaner. Even if only coal is used to generate the electricity to charge an EV,the emissions are 20-30 per cent lower than those of a comparable petroleum vehicle. With the transportation sector accounting for a third of all greenhouse gas emissions and government regulations tightening,this will force the auto industry to adapt and adopt.

As far as energy investors are concerned,however,the circle does not quite close — at least not yet. Yes,if there are 20m EVs on the road by the end of 2020 that will reduce the growth in gasoline demand. But Medley reckons there will be no outright reduction in oil consumption until at least 2030.

The reason for that is simply down to numbers. Against those 20m EVs,there are 1.1bn conventional passenger cars in existence and this number is also still growing,probably reaching 1.3bn in 2020. At that point,EVs will be just 1.5 per cent of the global fleet. Moreover,they are concentrated on the lighter end,where mileage is lower. Most heavy trucks and buses — 7 per cent of the vehicle fleet but a quarter of fuel consumption — still burn petrol.

Even under the IEA’s optimistic scenario,EV adoption will replace just 1.3m barrels/day of oil consumption in 2030. This is very modest given that oil demand is growing at 1m b/d annually.

As EV costs come down and adoption picks up,they can be paired with distributed solar generation capacity in developing nations,thus skipping the cost and time needed to develop traditional grid infrastructure. This does provide an exceedingly bullish outlook for EV growth. Yet starting from the current low base,it will take over a decade to have an impact on a mammoth global passenger car fleet that will continue to guzzle gas.