双语新闻：俄乌冲突如何结束
How does the war in Ukraine end? Earlier this year, former President Donald Trump boasted that if he were re-elected, he’d “have that war settled in one day, 24 hours.”
乌克兰战争如何结束?今年早些时候，前总统唐纳德·特朗普吹嘘说，如果他再次当选，他将“在一天内，24小时内解决这场战争”。
Russian President Vladimir Putin is making a slightly less ambitious forecast: If things go his way, the war can be over in a week.
俄罗斯总统普京的预测略显不那么雄心勃勃:如果事情按照他的方式发展，战争可能在一周内结束。
In remarks Thursday at the annual meeting of the Valdai Discussion Club, a Kremlin-friendly confab on global issues, Putin predicted that Ukraine would collapse if the West turns off the taps of military aid and economic assistance.
普京星期四在瓦尔代讨论俱乐部年会上发表讲话时预测，如果西方切断对乌克兰的军事援助和经济援助，乌克兰将崩溃。瓦尔代讨论俱乐部是一个与克里姆林宫友好的讨论全球问题的组织。
“By and large, the Ukrainian economy cannot exist without external support,” he said. “Once you stop this, everything will be over in a week. Finished. The same applies to the defense system: Imagine that supplies will stop tomorrow — you will only have a week to live when the ammunition runs out.”
“总的来说，乌克兰经济离不开外部支持，”他说。“一旦你停止这样做，一切都会在一周内结束。完成了。这同样适用于防御系统:想象一下，明天补给就会停止——当弹药耗尽时，你只能活一个星期。”
These remarks were perhaps Putin’s most clear articulation to date his strategy in Ukraine: He is counting on the Western alliance that backs Ukraine to fracture, the longer the gruesome war of attrition grinds on. And developments in recent days, to the alarm of Ukraine’s supporters, suggest that Putin’s plan may be gaining some traction.
这些言论可能是普京迄今为止对乌克兰战略最明确的表述:他指望支持乌克兰的西方联盟破裂，可怕的消耗战持续得越久。最近几天的事态发展表明，普京的计划可能正在获得一些支持，这让乌克兰的支持者感到震惊。
Take the recent headlines from Washington. Last week, President Joe Biden signed into law a stopgap bill to avert a government shutdown, but funding for Ukraine was a casualty of the brinksmanship on Capitol Hill.
以华盛顿最近的头条新闻为例。上周，乔·拜登总统签署了一项权宜之计法案，以避免政府关闭，但为乌克兰提供资金是国会山边缘政策的牺牲品。
The measure signed into law may keep the US government open only through November 17, but it includes no additional funding for Ukraine.
签署成为法律的这项措施可能只会让美国政府运作到11月17日，但它不包括向乌克兰提供额外资金。
The Biden administration emphasizes that that the American public’s support for Ukraine remains strong. But the lack of funding in the bill for Ukraine sets the clock ticking for Kyiv, and has the White House scrambling for workarounds.
拜登政府强调，美国公众对乌克兰的支持仍然很强。但是，该法案中缺乏对乌克兰的资金，这让基辅的时间紧迫起来，白宫也在忙着寻找变通办法。
Throughout the war, the US has been a steady lifeline for Ukraine, committing a total of around $113 billion to it, including direct military assistance, budget infusions and humanitarian assistance.
在整个战争期间，美国一直是乌克兰稳定的生命线，向乌克兰提供了总计约1130亿美元的援助，包括直接军事援助、预算注入和人道主义援助。
But the ouster of House Speaker Kevin McCarthy has thrown the short-term prospects for a new assistance package into serious doubt: Without a permanent speaker, legislative business in the House is effectively on hold.
但众议院议长凯文·麦卡锡的下台，给新援助方案的短期前景蒙上了严重的阴影:没有常任议长，众议院的立法工作实际上已被搁置。
The administration does have some options. The Pentagon Comptroller — the Department of Defense’s chief financial officer — has noted that there is the option to replenish Ukraine’s dwindling military supplies through what is known as Presidential Drawdown Authority.
政府确实有一些选择。五角大楼主计长、国防部首席财务官指出，可以通过所谓的“总统缩减授权”来补充乌克兰日益减少的军事物资。
But to the drama in Congress add: resistance among far-right Republican legislators raises serious questions about the US sustaining aid longer term for Ukraine, particularly during a major counteroffensive.
但在美国国会上演的闹剧之外，还应补充一点:极右翼共和党议员的抵制，引发了人们对美国能否继续向乌克兰提供长期援助的严重质疑，尤其是在一场重大反攻期间。
And then there is the race for the Republican presidential nomination, which likely also plays into Putin’s calculus. The Kremlin is no doubt mindful of the fact that several GOP aspirants are vocal skeptics when it comes to aiding Ukraine. Trump, no friend to Ukraine, is leading the pack.
然后是共和党总统候选人提名的竞争，这可能也会影响普京的考量。克里姆林宫无疑注意到这样一个事实:在援助乌克兰的问题上，几位共和党有志者是直言不讳的怀疑论者。特朗普不是乌克兰的朋友，他在这方面处于领先地位。
The United States, it’s worth remembering, is not the only country shouldering the financial burden of supporting Ukraine. European Union members provide around 39% of direct military assistance to Ukraine.
值得记住的是，美国并不是唯一承担支持乌克兰财政负担的国家。欧盟成员国向乌克兰提供了约39%的直接军事援助。
Putin is clearly counting on Ukraine fatigue in Europe. Earlier this week, a party headed by Robert Fico, a populist, pro-Kremlin figure, came out on top in parliamentary elections in Slovakia, an EU and NATO member. Fico has called on the Slovak government to stop arming Ukraine, and his bogus rhetoric — blaming “Ukrainian Nazis and fascists” for provoking Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine — must no doubt be music to Putin’s ears.
普京显然是指望欧洲对乌克兰感到厌倦。本周早些时候，亲克里姆林宫的民粹主义者罗伯特•菲科领导的政党在欧盟和北约成员国斯洛伐克的议会选举中胜出。菲科呼吁斯洛伐克政府停止向乌克兰提供武器，他的虚假言辞——指责“乌克兰纳粹分子和法西斯分子”挑起了俄罗斯对乌克兰的全面入侵——对普京来说无疑是悦耳的。
Putin’s advisors also appear to be reading the defense trade press. In his remarks this week, the Kremlin leader noted that the US industrial base is struggling to ramp up demand for ammunition for Ukraine, which has been locked in an artillery slogging match with Russia.
普京的顾问们似乎也在阅读国防贸易新闻。这位克里姆林宫领导人在本周的讲话中指出，美国的工业基础正在努力增加对乌克兰的弹药需求，乌克兰与俄罗斯陷入了一场火炮战。
“The United States produces 14 thousand 155-mm shells, and Ukrainian troops expend up to five thousand per day, and there they produce 14 [thousand] per month,” he claimed at the Valdai conference. “Do you understand what we’re talking about? Yes, they are trying to increase production - up to 75,000 by the end of next year, but we still have to wait until the end of next year.”
他在瓦尔代会议上说:“美国生产1万4千枚155毫米炮弹，乌克兰军队每天消耗多达5千枚，他们每月生产1万4千枚。”“你明白我们在说什么吗?”是的，他们正在努力增加产量，到明年年底达到75000辆，但是我们还得等到明年年底。”
Putin’s notecards may have been slightly off – US monthly production is currently at 28,000 shells. But the Russian president was not mischaracterizing the fact that the US and its European allies are locked in a desperate race against Russia’s industrial base.
普京的说法可能略有偏差——美国目前的月产量为2.8万枚。但这位俄罗斯总统并没有曲解这样一个事实:美国及其欧洲盟友正陷入一场与俄罗斯工业基础的绝望竞赛。
In a discussion this past week at the Warsaw Security Forum, Royal Netherlands Navy Adm. Rob Bauer, chair of the NATO Military Committee warned that “the bottom of the barrel is now visible” when it comes to ammunition production for Ukraine.
在上周华沙安全论坛的一次讨论中，北约军事委员会主席、荷兰皇家海军上将罗布·鲍尔警告说，在为乌克兰生产弹药的问题上，“现在已经见底了”。
Putin, then, appears to be counting on both dysfunction in Washington and stress within the transatlantic alliance for his strategy of attrition to work. That strategy, to some degree, also depends on winning a battle of perception. If Ukraine is seen as a losing cause, Kremlin logic argues, then its patrons will pull the plug.
因此，普京似乎指望着华盛顿的功能失调和跨大西洋联盟内部的压力，让他的消耗战略发挥作用。在某种程度上，这一策略也取决于能否赢得一场认知之战。克里姆林宫的逻辑是，如果乌克兰被视为一个失败的事业，那么它的赞助人就会拔掉插头。
But what about the actual situation on the ground in Ukraine, as winter draws near and a much-anticipated Ukrainian counteroffensive makes only incremental gains? Is the situation as dire as Putin might suggest?
但是，随着冬季的临近，乌克兰备受期待的反攻只取得了一点点进展，乌克兰的实际情况又如何呢?形势真的像普京所说的那样可怕吗?
Putin casts that fight in existential terms, arguing this week that nothing less than a twilight struggle is underway to establish a new world order congenial to authoritarian states — and implying that Russia is in this for the long haul.
普京从存在主义的角度来看待这场斗争，本周他辩称，建立一个适合威权国家的世界新秩序，无异于一场即将来临的斗争，并暗示俄罗斯将长期参与其中。
“The Ukrainian crisis is not a territorial conflict, I want to emphasize this,” he said at the Valdai forum. “Russia is the largest country in the world, with the largest territory. We have no interests in terms of conquering any additional territories. We still have to explore and develop Siberia, Eastern Siberia and the Far East. This is not a territorial conflict or even the establishment of a regional geopolitical balance. The question is much broader and more fundamental: we are talking about the principles on which the new world order will be based.”
他在瓦尔代论坛上说:“我想强调，乌克兰危机不是领土冲突。”“俄罗斯是世界上最大的国家，拥有最大的领土。我们没有兴趣征服任何额外的领土。我们还要勘探开发西伯利亚、东西伯利亚和远东。这不是领土冲突，也不是建立地区地缘政治平衡。问题要广泛得多，也更为根本:我们讨论的是世界新秩序将建立在哪些原则之上。”
Leave aside for a moment that Putin has, at other times, brazenly framed the invasion of Ukraine as project of imperial restoration. In his remarks at Valdai, he clearly implied that Russia intends to outlast the West over Ukraine.
暂且不提普京在其他时候厚颜无耻地把入侵乌克兰说成是帝国复辟的计划。在瓦尔代的讲话中，他明确暗示，俄罗斯打算在乌克兰问题上比西方更持久。
But not everyone, and especially not Ukrainians, believe it’s a waiting game.
但并非所有人，尤其是乌克兰人，都认为这是一场等待的游戏。
Tymofiy Mylovanov, the president of the Kyiv School of Economics, responded to Putin’s Valdai remarks with a reminder that Ukrainians would still fight for survival regardless of Moscow’s goal of hiving off support for his country.
基辅经济学院院长季莫菲·迈洛瓦诺夫对普京在瓦尔代的讲话作出回应，提醒人们，不管莫斯科的目标是摆脱对乌克兰的支持，乌克兰人仍将为生存而战。
Paraphrasing Putin, Mylovanov said that the Kremlin believes that “Ukraine will have one week left to LIVE once Western supplies are over. LIVE as in EXIST, not defend or resist.
米洛瓦诺夫转述普京的话说，克里姆林宫认为，“一旦西方的供应结束，乌克兰将只剩下一周的时间。”像存在一样生活，而不是防御或抵抗。
What defending or resisting comes is down not just to action on Capitol Hill. Putin’s credibility has been dented in recent months by the Wagner mutiny, as well as the Russian government’s ability to muster motivated, well-trained troops after a sustained hammering on the battlefield.
捍卫或抵抗不仅仅取决于国会山的行动。近几个月来，由于瓦格纳兵变，以及俄罗斯政府在战场上遭受持续打击后，无法集结积极、训练有素的军队，普京的信誉受到了损害。
If Putin is counting on a long war to blunt Western will to support Ukraine, he is also taking a gamble on the longevity of his system of rule — and perhaps underestimating the resolve of Ukrainians, whom he sees as merely a puppet of Washington and Brussels.
如果普京指望一场旷日持久的战争来削弱西方支持乌克兰的意愿，那么他也是在拿自己的统治体系的寿命冒险——而且可能低估了乌克兰人的决心，他认为乌克兰人只是华盛顿和布鲁塞尔的傀儡。
And that is where the dark headlines for Ukraine have the unsurprising result of hardening Ukrainian resolve. Whether the deadly strike on the village of Hroza or Friday’s attack on Kharkiv, Ukraine’s will to fight, regardless of US and Western support, appears unwavering.
因此，乌克兰的负面新闻不出所料地强化了乌克兰的决心。无论是对Hroza村的致命袭击，还是周五对哈尔科夫的袭击，无论美国和西方的支持如何，乌克兰的战斗意志似乎都是坚定不移的。
