双语新闻：连续10次加息后，欧洲央行暂停加息

On the evening of October 26, Beijing time, the European Central Bank decided to maintain the three key interest rates in the eurozone. It was the first pause in the ECB's rate hike cycle, which last took place in mid-September and was the tenth in a row, bringing the total to 450 basis points. The interest rate on deposits tied to financial institutions reached 4.00 percent, the highest since the euro zone was created in 1999.

北京时间10月26日晚间，欧洲央行决定维持欧元区三大关键利率不变。这是欧洲央行本轮加息周期以来首次暂停加息，欧洲央行上一次加息是在9月中旬，是该央行连续第十次上调利率，累计加息幅度为450个基点。与金融机构相关的存款利率达到4.00%，创下自1999年欧元区成立以来的最高水平。

By contrast, the Federal Reserve in June took its first pause in raising interest rates. But it resumed a modest 25 basis point rate hike in July. The Fed then paused again in September. The ECB's inaction in October is widely expected to further increase the chances that the US Federal Reserve will leave rates unchanged at its subsequent policy meeting on October 31-November 1. In an effort to curb inflation, the Fed has raised interest rates 11 times since March 2022, a cumulative increase of 525 basis points.

与之对比的是，美联储曾在今年6月采取了本轮加息以来的首次暂停加息；但在7月恢复温和加息25个基点。随后，美联储在9月再度暂停加息。市场广泛预计，欧洲央行10月按兵不动，将进一步加大美联储在随后的10月31日至11月1日的政策会议上，维持利率不变的几率。为了遏制通胀，自2022年3月以来，美联储已经加息11次，累计加息幅度高达525个基点。

European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said at a press conference on the 26th that she did not rule out the possibility of another interest rate hike, adding that it was "completely premature" to discuss a possible rate cut. Ms Lagarde said economic growth was "likely to remain weak for the rest of the year" as the impact of rising interest rates was "broadening". The data show that inflation in the region has also slowed in the face of aggressive interest rate hikes by the European Central Bank. Consumer price inflation in the eurozone fell sharply to 4.3% in September from 5.2% the previous month. Core inflation, which strips out food and energy prices, also fell sharply. Recently, a steady stream of European policymakers have warned that further ECB rate hikes could lead to a repeat of 2011, when the eurozone suffered a severe sovereign debt crisis.

欧洲央行行长拉加德在26日的新闻发布会上表示，她不排除再次加息的可能性，并补充说现在讨论可能的降息“完全为时过早”。拉加德表示，由于利率上升的影响正在“扩大”，经济增长“可能在今年剩余时间内保持疲软”。数据显示，在欧洲央行大幅加息之下，该地区通胀也有所放缓。9月份欧元区的消费者价格指数已经从上月的5.2%，显著回落至4.3%。去除食品和能源价格因素的核心通胀也有较大幅度的下降。近来，不断有欧洲决策者警告称，欧洲央行进一步加息可能会重蹈2011年的覆辙，当时欧元区发生了严重的主权债务危机。

Asked if a new round of Israeli-Palestinian conflict was triggering a risk of another spike in oil prices, Lagarde said the ECB was watching "very closely" the impact of tensions in the Middle East. But she added that the eurozone is "a completely different economy today" than it was when energy prices spiked last year, and that this time they are less likely to seep into broader price pressures. The rising geopolitical risks in the Middle East caused by the Israeli-Palestinian conflict have further pushed up energy prices: gas prices in Europe have risen 35% since October, and oil prices have exceeded $93. This is bad news for the European Central Bank, which has been battling soaring inflation. As an energy-importing region, Europe is more vulnerable than the US to a spike in inflation triggered by tensions in the Middle East.

当被问及新一轮巴以冲突是否引发油价再次飙升的风险时，拉加德表示，欧洲央行正在“非常关注”中东紧张局势的影响。但她补充说，与去年能源价格飙升时相比，欧元区“如今是一个完全不同的经济体”，这一次它们不太可能渗透到更广泛的价格压力中。数据显示，巴以冲突所带来的中东地区地缘政治风险攀升，进一步推高了能源价格：10月以来，欧洲天然气价格上涨了35%，油价也超过了93美元。这对一直在与通胀飙升作斗争的欧洲央行来说，无疑是个坏消息。作为一个能源进口地区，欧洲比美国更容易受到中东紧张局势引发的通胀飙升的影响。