双语新闻：研究表明:非洲国家不太可能通过扩大制造业来减少贫困
A recent study says African countries are less likely to follow East Asia's development model of expanding manufacturing to reduce poverty.
最近的一项研究表明，非洲国家不太可能效仿东亚通过扩大制造业来减少贫困的发展模式。
The study predicts a decreasing share of factory jobs for most countries by 2050.
该研究预测，到2050年，大多数国家的工厂工作岗位比例将下降。
The Center for Global Development (CGD) released the study this week. It said there will be fewer factory workers around the world in 2050. And the paper predicts that, even in poor countries with a lot of low-cost labor, manufacturing job growth will slow down.
全球发展中心(CGD)本周发布了这项研究。报告称，到2050年，世界各地的工厂工人将会减少。该报告预测，即使在拥有大量低成本劳动力的贫穷国家，制造业就业增长也将放缓。
China may be an exception out of the 59 countries modeled in the study. The study said that China will continue to expand its share of manufacturing to 43.8 percent in 2050 from 30 percent in 2018 and 10.5 percent in 1975.
中国可能是研究中59个国家中的一个例外。该研究称，中国的制造业份额将从2018年的30%和1975年的10.5%继续扩大到2050年的43.8%。
The study's writers said that China will continue its strong manufacturing performance, producing higher-valued products.
该研究报告的作者说，中国将继续保持其强劲的制造业表现，生产更高价值的产品。
This might create some space for developing countries in Africa, Southeast Asia, and South and Central America to start producing the products China will no longer produce. However, it will not be enough for other countries to follow the same development path taken by East Asia in expanding manufacturing.
这可能会为非洲、东南亚、南美和中美洲的发展中国家创造一些空间，让他们开始生产中国不再生产的产品。但是，其他国家在扩大制造业方面走东亚的发展道路是不够的。
Charles Kenny and Ranil Dissanayake of CGD said that many countries will move straight from agriculture to services. They say jobs will greatly expand in services because of new technologies – even in countries such as Bangladesh and Ethiopia.
CGD的Charles Kenny和Ranil Dissanayake表示，许多国家将直接从农业转向服务业。他们说，由于新技术的出现，服务业的就业机会将大大增加，甚至在孟加拉国和埃塞俄比亚这样的国家也是如此。
"There's still a popular idea that low-income countries will progress naturally from being dominated by agriculture to manufacturing-led growth, but mounting evidence suggests that's not going to happen," said Kenny. He said people think that farms are going to empty out across Africa and Asia in the coming years, but he said, people are likely to flood into offices and stores, not factories.
“仍然有一种流行的观点认为，低收入国家将自然地从以农业为主导的经济增长转变为以制造业为主导的经济增长，但越来越多的证据表明，这种情况不会发生，”肯尼说。他说，人们认为非洲和亚洲的农场在未来几年将会清空，但他说，人们可能会涌入办公室和商店，而不是工厂。
The study projects worldwide growth through the year 2050. It aims to predict changes in the economies of 59 countries that make up about three quarters of the world's GDP and population.
该研究预测到2050年全球人口增长。它旨在预测59个国家的经济变化，这些国家的GDP和人口约占世界的四分之三。
GDP, or gross domestic product, measures all the goods and services produced in a country in a year. GDP is considered a good measure of the size of a nation's economy.
GDP，或国内生产总值，衡量一个国家在一年内生产的所有商品和服务。GDP被认为是衡量一个国家经济规模的一个很好的指标。
The study projects that even for the lowest-income countries, the number of factory jobs will just keep up with population growth over the next 30 years. And it projects manufacturing will likely stay a small part of most of these countries' economies.
该研究预计，即使在收入最低的国家，未来30年工厂工作岗位的数量也将刚好赶上人口增长。它预计制造业在这些国家的经济中可能只占很小的一部分。
Across all low-income countries, manufacturing jobs are projected to remain below eight percent of total employment. The study projects the share of manufacturing jobs in high-income countries will continue to fall, to 8.3 percent by 2050 from 11.4 percent currently.
在所有低收入国家，制造业就业预计将保持在总就业人数的8%以下。该研究预测，高收入国家的制造业就业份额将继续下降，到2050年将从目前的11.4%降至8.3%。
Jobs in private service industries are expected to make up 37 percent of worldwide jobs by 2050, and 26 percent in low-income countries. That is up from about 12 percent currently.
到2050年，私营服务行业的就业岗位预计将占全球就业岗位的37%，在低收入国家占26%。目前这一比例约为12%。
最近的一项研究表明，非洲国家不太可能效仿东亚通过扩大制造业来减少贫困的发展模式。
The study predicts a decreasing share of factory jobs for most countries by 2050.
该研究预测，到2050年，大多数国家的工厂工作岗位比例将下降。
The Center for Global Development (CGD) released the study this week. It said there will be fewer factory workers around the world in 2050. And the paper predicts that, even in poor countries with a lot of low-cost labor, manufacturing job growth will slow down.
全球发展中心(CGD)本周发布了这项研究。报告称，到2050年，世界各地的工厂工人将会减少。该报告预测，即使在拥有大量低成本劳动力的贫穷国家，制造业就业增长也将放缓。
China may be an exception out of the 59 countries modeled in the study. The study said that China will continue to expand its share of manufacturing to 43.8 percent in 2050 from 30 percent in 2018 and 10.5 percent in 1975.
中国可能是研究中59个国家中的一个例外。该研究称，中国的制造业份额将从2018年的30%和1975年的10.5%继续扩大到2050年的43.8%。
The study's writers said that China will continue its strong manufacturing performance, producing higher-valued products.
该研究报告的作者说，中国将继续保持其强劲的制造业表现，生产更高价值的产品。
This might create some space for developing countries in Africa, Southeast Asia, and South and Central America to start producing the products China will no longer produce. However, it will not be enough for other countries to follow the same development path taken by East Asia in expanding manufacturing.
这可能会为非洲、东南亚、南美和中美洲的发展中国家创造一些空间，让他们开始生产中国不再生产的产品。但是，其他国家在扩大制造业方面走东亚的发展道路是不够的。
Charles Kenny and Ranil Dissanayake of CGD said that many countries will move straight from agriculture to services. They say jobs will greatly expand in services because of new technologies – even in countries such as Bangladesh and Ethiopia.
CGD的Charles Kenny和Ranil Dissanayake表示，许多国家将直接从农业转向服务业。他们说，由于新技术的出现，服务业的就业机会将大大增加，甚至在孟加拉国和埃塞俄比亚这样的国家也是如此。
"There's still a popular idea that low-income countries will progress naturally from being dominated by agriculture to manufacturing-led growth, but mounting evidence suggests that's not going to happen," said Kenny. He said people think that farms are going to empty out across Africa and Asia in the coming years, but he said, people are likely to flood into offices and stores, not factories.
“仍然有一种流行的观点认为，低收入国家将自然地从以农业为主导的经济增长转变为以制造业为主导的经济增长，但越来越多的证据表明，这种情况不会发生，”肯尼说。他说，人们认为非洲和亚洲的农场在未来几年将会清空，但他说，人们可能会涌入办公室和商店，而不是工厂。
The study projects worldwide growth through the year 2050. It aims to predict changes in the economies of 59 countries that make up about three quarters of the world's GDP and population.
该研究预测到2050年全球人口增长。它旨在预测59个国家的经济变化，这些国家的GDP和人口约占世界的四分之三。
GDP, or gross domestic product, measures all the goods and services produced in a country in a year. GDP is considered a good measure of the size of a nation's economy.
GDP，或国内生产总值，衡量一个国家在一年内生产的所有商品和服务。GDP被认为是衡量一个国家经济规模的一个很好的指标。
The study projects that even for the lowest-income countries, the number of factory jobs will just keep up with population growth over the next 30 years. And it projects manufacturing will likely stay a small part of most of these countries' economies.
该研究预计，即使在收入最低的国家，未来30年工厂工作岗位的数量也将刚好赶上人口增长。它预计制造业在这些国家的经济中可能只占很小的一部分。
Across all low-income countries, manufacturing jobs are projected to remain below eight percent of total employment. The study projects the share of manufacturing jobs in high-income countries will continue to fall, to 8.3 percent by 2050 from 11.4 percent currently.
在所有低收入国家，制造业就业预计将保持在总就业人数的8%以下。该研究预测，高收入国家的制造业就业份额将继续下降，到2050年将从目前的11.4%降至8.3%。
Jobs in private service industries are expected to make up 37 percent of worldwide jobs by 2050, and 26 percent in low-income countries. That is up from about 12 percent currently.
到2050年，私营服务行业的就业岗位预计将占全球就业岗位的37%，在低收入国家占26%。目前这一比例约为12%。
