双语新闻：新研究表明：到2050年，气候变化可能造成38万亿美元的损失
A new study from a German research group says climate change will reduce everyone's income by about 19 percent over the next 25 years.
德国一个研究小组的一项新研究表明，气候变化将在未来25年内使每个人的收入减少约19%。
That would be about $38 trillion per year. But the report warns it could get worse between 25 and 75 years from now if nothing is done soon.
这将是每年约38万亿美元。但报告警告说，如果不尽快采取措施，情况可能会在25到75年内变得更糟。
The numbers come from a study published in April in the journal Nature.
这些数据来自4月份发表在《自然》杂志上的一项研究。
Researchers from Germany's Potsdam Institute for Climate Research, a nonprofit group partly supported by Germany's government, wrote the report. They said, "Climate change will cause massive economic damages within the next 25 years in almost all countries around the world."
来自德国波茨坦气候研究所的研究人员撰写了这份报告，这是一个由德国政府部分支持的非营利组织。他们说:“气候变化将在未来25年内对世界上几乎所有国家造成巨大的经济损失。”
Study co-author Leonie Wenz said developed countries such as Germany, the United States and France would face smaller decreases. Wenz said the researchers projected that people living in those countries will see 11 to 13 percent less income.
研究报告的合著者Leonie Wenz说，像德国、美国和法国这样的发达国家将面临较小的减少。温兹说，研究人员预测，生活在这些国家的人的收入将减少11%到13%。
The study writers said the greatest economic effect will be felt by people in the least-developed nations. They said countries that are "least responsible will suffer the most."
该研究的作者表示，最不发达国家的人民将感受到最大的经济影响。他们说，“最不负责的国家将遭受最大的损失。”
Max Kotz is the lead author. He said the researchers first estimated what the world's economic growth would be without climate change.
马克斯·科茨是主要作者。他说，研究人员首先估计了没有气候变化的世界经济增长。
They then applied those values to the damage to economies if climate change continues at its current pace. Kotz noted that there will still be economic growth, but it will be 19 percent lower in most places once the damage of climate change is taken into account.
然后，他们将这些数值应用于如果气候变化以目前的速度持续下去，对经济造成的损害。科茨指出，经济仍然会增长，但是一旦考虑到气候变化的损害，大多数地方的经济增长将会下降19%。
Kotz said most climate scientists have been looking at extreme weather events such as heat waves, floods, hurricanes and other large storms. However, he notes, "the overall impacts are still mainly driven by average warming, overall temperature increases."
Kotz说，大多数气候科学家一直在关注极端天气事件，如热浪、洪水、飓风和其他大型风暴。然而，他指出，“总体影响仍然主要是由平均变暖和整体温度上升驱动的。”
The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) said the average world temperature last year was a record. The weather agency said that number was 1.35 degrees Celsius above the average during pre-industrial times, before modern technology.
美国国家海洋和大气管理局(NOAA)表示，去年全球平均气温创历史新高。气象局表示，这一数字比现代技术出现前工业时代的平均水平高出1.35摄氏度。
In the U.S., the southeastern and southwestern states such as New Mexico and Arizona are estimated to suffer the largest economic effects. In Europe, Spain and Italy are likely to feel the effect more than countries like Denmark and Germany. Areas that are usually cold for most of the year – Canada, Russia, Norway, Finland, and Sweden – will have good results from warming.
在美国，新墨西哥州和亚利桑那州等东南部和西南部各州将受到最大的经济影响。在欧洲，西班牙和意大利可能比丹麦和德国等国更能感受到这种影响。加拿大、俄罗斯、挪威、芬兰和瑞典等一年中大部分时间都很冷的地区将从变暖中受益。
Kotz notes that the world's poorest countries are also the least prepared to adapt to climate change. Those countries are least responsible for the change, but they will suffer 60 percent more income loss than wealthy nations.
Kotz指出，世界上最贫穷的国家也是最不准备适应气候变化的国家。这些国家对这种变化的责任最小，但他们的收入损失将比富裕国家多60%。
"It underlies some of the injustice elements of climate," Kotz said.
“这是气候中一些不公正因素的基础，”科茨说。
The study looked at 1,600 areas around the world that are smaller than countries. Kotz and his group then examined a number of climate influences and considered how long economic shocks related to climate would last. Computer systems were used to estimate the effects on each person's income in the area.
这项研究调查了世界上1600个比国家小的地区。Kotz和他的团队随后研究了一系列气候影响，并考虑了与气候相关的经济冲击将持续多长时间。计算机系统被用来估计对该地区每个人收入的影响。
Kotz's work proposes that economic changes over the next 25 years are likely to happen. He said cuts in greenhouse gases will only reduce the lost income by a small amount. But there are two different possibilities for 2050 and beyond.
Kotz的研究表明，未来25年的经济变化可能会发生。他说，减少温室气体排放只能减少一小部分收入损失。但在2050年及以后，有两种不同的可能性。
If the world works to reduce warming to two degrees Celsius above pre-industrial times, the economic impact would be 20 percent of global income. But if climate changes substantially more, the effect could be a 60 percent loss of income.
如果全球努力将全球变暖幅度控制在比工业化前时代高2摄氏度的水平，其经济影响将相当于全球收入的20%。但如果气候变化更大，其影响可能是60%的收入损失。
Kotz said that means that people should not think the "doomsday" is already here and nothing can be done.
科茨说，这意味着人们不应该认为“世界末日”已经到来，而且无能为力。
The new study predicted a larger decrease in the world's income than a similar study in 2015 suggested. The study said the world's economy would shrink by 23 percent by 2100.
与2015年的一项类似研究相比，这项新研究预测的全球收入下降幅度更大。该研究称，到2100年，世界经济将萎缩23%。
Marshall Burke is a climate scientist at Stanford University who wrote the 2015 study. He said the new, German study "makes a lot of sense."
马歇尔·伯克是斯坦福大学的气候科学家，他撰写了2015年的研究报告。他说，德国的这项新研究“很有意义”。
Burke was not part of the recent study. He warned that he is not completely sure about some of the methods, but he agrees with the idea. Burke added, "the big picture is basically right."
伯克没有参与最近的研究。他警告说，他对其中一些方法并不完全确定，但他同意这个想法。伯克补充说，“总体情况基本上是正确的。”
Frances Moore is an economist and teaches environmental studies at the University of California-Davis. Moore, who also was not part of the study, said climate damage adds up over time. That is why fighting climate change today, even at a high cost, will have good results later.
弗朗西斯·摩尔是一名经济学家，在加州大学戴维斯分校教授环境研究。摩尔也没有参与这项研究，他说气候破坏会随着时间的推移而增加。这就是为什么今天与气候变化作斗争，即使付出高昂的代价，将来也会有好的结果。
德国一个研究小组的一项新研究表明，气候变化将在未来25年内使每个人的收入减少约19%。
That would be about $38 trillion per year. But the report warns it could get worse between 25 and 75 years from now if nothing is done soon.
这将是每年约38万亿美元。但报告警告说，如果不尽快采取措施，情况可能会在25到75年内变得更糟。
The numbers come from a study published in April in the journal Nature.
这些数据来自4月份发表在《自然》杂志上的一项研究。
Researchers from Germany's Potsdam Institute for Climate Research, a nonprofit group partly supported by Germany's government, wrote the report. They said, "Climate change will cause massive economic damages within the next 25 years in almost all countries around the world."
来自德国波茨坦气候研究所的研究人员撰写了这份报告，这是一个由德国政府部分支持的非营利组织。他们说:“气候变化将在未来25年内对世界上几乎所有国家造成巨大的经济损失。”
Study co-author Leonie Wenz said developed countries such as Germany, the United States and France would face smaller decreases. Wenz said the researchers projected that people living in those countries will see 11 to 13 percent less income.
研究报告的合著者Leonie Wenz说，像德国、美国和法国这样的发达国家将面临较小的减少。温兹说，研究人员预测，生活在这些国家的人的收入将减少11%到13%。
The study writers said the greatest economic effect will be felt by people in the least-developed nations. They said countries that are "least responsible will suffer the most."
该研究的作者表示，最不发达国家的人民将感受到最大的经济影响。他们说，“最不负责的国家将遭受最大的损失。”
Max Kotz is the lead author. He said the researchers first estimated what the world's economic growth would be without climate change.
马克斯·科茨是主要作者。他说，研究人员首先估计了没有气候变化的世界经济增长。
They then applied those values to the damage to economies if climate change continues at its current pace. Kotz noted that there will still be economic growth, but it will be 19 percent lower in most places once the damage of climate change is taken into account.
然后，他们将这些数值应用于如果气候变化以目前的速度持续下去，对经济造成的损害。科茨指出，经济仍然会增长，但是一旦考虑到气候变化的损害，大多数地方的经济增长将会下降19%。
Kotz said most climate scientists have been looking at extreme weather events such as heat waves, floods, hurricanes and other large storms. However, he notes, "the overall impacts are still mainly driven by average warming, overall temperature increases."
Kotz说，大多数气候科学家一直在关注极端天气事件，如热浪、洪水、飓风和其他大型风暴。然而，他指出，“总体影响仍然主要是由平均变暖和整体温度上升驱动的。”
The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) said the average world temperature last year was a record. The weather agency said that number was 1.35 degrees Celsius above the average during pre-industrial times, before modern technology.
美国国家海洋和大气管理局(NOAA)表示，去年全球平均气温创历史新高。气象局表示，这一数字比现代技术出现前工业时代的平均水平高出1.35摄氏度。
In the U.S., the southeastern and southwestern states such as New Mexico and Arizona are estimated to suffer the largest economic effects. In Europe, Spain and Italy are likely to feel the effect more than countries like Denmark and Germany. Areas that are usually cold for most of the year – Canada, Russia, Norway, Finland, and Sweden – will have good results from warming.
在美国，新墨西哥州和亚利桑那州等东南部和西南部各州将受到最大的经济影响。在欧洲，西班牙和意大利可能比丹麦和德国等国更能感受到这种影响。加拿大、俄罗斯、挪威、芬兰和瑞典等一年中大部分时间都很冷的地区将从变暖中受益。
Kotz notes that the world's poorest countries are also the least prepared to adapt to climate change. Those countries are least responsible for the change, but they will suffer 60 percent more income loss than wealthy nations.
Kotz指出，世界上最贫穷的国家也是最不准备适应气候变化的国家。这些国家对这种变化的责任最小，但他们的收入损失将比富裕国家多60%。
"It underlies some of the injustice elements of climate," Kotz said.
“这是气候中一些不公正因素的基础，”科茨说。
The study looked at 1,600 areas around the world that are smaller than countries. Kotz and his group then examined a number of climate influences and considered how long economic shocks related to climate would last. Computer systems were used to estimate the effects on each person's income in the area.
这项研究调查了世界上1600个比国家小的地区。Kotz和他的团队随后研究了一系列气候影响，并考虑了与气候相关的经济冲击将持续多长时间。计算机系统被用来估计对该地区每个人收入的影响。
Kotz's work proposes that economic changes over the next 25 years are likely to happen. He said cuts in greenhouse gases will only reduce the lost income by a small amount. But there are two different possibilities for 2050 and beyond.
Kotz的研究表明，未来25年的经济变化可能会发生。他说，减少温室气体排放只能减少一小部分收入损失。但在2050年及以后，有两种不同的可能性。
If the world works to reduce warming to two degrees Celsius above pre-industrial times, the economic impact would be 20 percent of global income. But if climate changes substantially more, the effect could be a 60 percent loss of income.
如果全球努力将全球变暖幅度控制在比工业化前时代高2摄氏度的水平，其经济影响将相当于全球收入的20%。但如果气候变化更大，其影响可能是60%的收入损失。
Kotz said that means that people should not think the "doomsday" is already here and nothing can be done.
科茨说，这意味着人们不应该认为“世界末日”已经到来，而且无能为力。
The new study predicted a larger decrease in the world's income than a similar study in 2015 suggested. The study said the world's economy would shrink by 23 percent by 2100.
与2015年的一项类似研究相比，这项新研究预测的全球收入下降幅度更大。该研究称，到2100年，世界经济将萎缩23%。
Marshall Burke is a climate scientist at Stanford University who wrote the 2015 study. He said the new, German study "makes a lot of sense."
马歇尔·伯克是斯坦福大学的气候科学家，他撰写了2015年的研究报告。他说，德国的这项新研究“很有意义”。
Burke was not part of the recent study. He warned that he is not completely sure about some of the methods, but he agrees with the idea. Burke added, "the big picture is basically right."
伯克没有参与最近的研究。他警告说，他对其中一些方法并不完全确定，但他同意这个想法。伯克补充说，“总体情况基本上是正确的。”
Frances Moore is an economist and teaches environmental studies at the University of California-Davis. Moore, who also was not part of the study, said climate damage adds up over time. That is why fighting climate change today, even at a high cost, will have good results later.
弗朗西斯·摩尔是一名经济学家，在加州大学戴维斯分校教授环境研究。摩尔也没有参与这项研究，他说气候破坏会随着时间的推移而增加。这就是为什么今天与气候变化作斗争，即使付出高昂的代价，将来也会有好的结果。
