听力课堂TED音频栏目主要包括TED演讲的音频MP3及中英双语文稿，供各位英语爱好者学习使用。本文主要内容为演讲MP3+双语文稿:我们如何改变地球未来的气候，希望你会喜欢！

【演讲者及介绍】David Wallace-Wells

大卫·华莱士·威尔斯是专栏作家和《不适宜居住的地球：变暖后的生命》一书的作者，该书探讨了气候变化将如何改变人类在这个星球上的体验。

【演讲主题】我们如何改变地球气候的未来

How we could change the planet's climate future

【中英文字幕】

翻译者Joyce He 校对者Jiasi Hao

00:04

I'm here to talk about climate change, but I'm not really an environmentalist. In fact, I've never really thought of myself as a nature person. I have never gone camping, never gone hiking, never even owned a pet. I've lived my whole life in cities, actually just one city. And while I like to take trips to visit nature, I always thought it was something that was happening elsewhere, far away, with all of modern life a fortress against its forces. In other words, like just about everybody I knew, I lived my life complacent and deluded about the threat from global warming. Which I took to be happening slowly, happening at a distance and representing only a modest threat to the way that I lived. In each of these ways, I was very, very wrong.

今天我在这儿想讲讲气候变化， 但我其实不算是环保主义者。 事实上，我从不认为 自己是个亲近自然的人。 我从没露营过，也没远足过， 从没养过宠物。 我从出生起就住在城市里， 而且我只待过一座城市。 尽管我喜欢以郊游的方式亲近自然， 我却总觉得气候变化 像是发生在别处， 发生在很远的地方， 而所有现代生活是一个堡垒 可以对抗它的力量。 换言之， 我就和其他我认识的人一样， 过着怡然自得的生活， 欺骗着自己 全球变暖不是什么大威胁。 我总认为全球变暖的速度很慢， 也离我很远， 而且对我的生活 几乎不会构成什么威胁。 然而我所有的这些想法， 都错得非常离谱。

01:04

Now most people, if they were telling you about climate change, will tell you a story about the future. If I was doing that, I would say, "According to the UN, if we don't change course, by the end of the century, we're likely to get about four degrees Celsius of warming." That would mean, some scientists believe, twice as much war, half as much food, a global GDP possibly 20 percent smaller than it would be without climate change. That's an impact that's deeper than the Great Depression, and it would be permanent.

现在大多数人在谈到气候变化时， 都会和你讲一个关于未来的故事。 如果我也采用那种方式，我会说些： “根据联合国的预测， 如果我们还不做出改变， 那么到这个世纪末， 全球气温会上升四摄氏度左右。” 一些科学家认为，这个数据意味着 战争会多一倍， 食物会少一半， 全球 GDP 相比没有 气候变化的时候会下降 20% 。 气候变化所产生的影响 将会比经济大萧条还严重， 而且这种影响将会是永久存在的。

01:35

But the impacts are actually happening a lot faster than 2100. By just 2050, it's estimated, many of the biggest cities in South Asia and the Middle East will be almost literally unlivably hot in summer. These are cities that today are home to 10, 12, 15 million people. And in just three decades, you wouldn't be able to walk around outside in them without risking heatstroke or possibly death.

不过在 21 世纪后， 这种影响的发生速度变得更快。 据预测，到了 2050 年， 很多那些在南亚和中东规模最大的城市 会迎来无法忍受的夏日热浪。 这些城市现在是一千万、 一千两百万， 一千五百万人的家。 而只要三十年， 如果你在这些城市的户外步行， 你将面临的可能是中暑， 甚至是死亡的危险。

02:04

The planet is now 1.1 degrees Celsius warmer than it was before industrialization. That may not sound like a lot, but it actually puts us entirely outside the window of temperatures that enclose all of human history. That means that everything we have ever known as a species, the evolution of the human animal, the development of agriculture, the development of rudimentary civilization and modern civilization and industrial civilization, everything we know about ourselves as biological creatures, as social creatures, as political creatures, all of it is the result of climate conditions we have already left behind. It's like we've landed on an entirely different planet, with an entirely different climate. And we now have to figure out what of the civilization that we've brought with us can endure these new conditions and what can't. And things will get worse from here.

现在地球的气温 已经比工业化时期之前的气温 高了 1.1 摄氏度。 听上去可能不多， 但这实际是这已经达到了 我们人类历史上 最高的温度范围。 这意味着我们人类 作为一个物种所熟知的一切—— 人类文明的演化， 农业的发展， 原始文明的发展， 现代文明和工业文明， 我们人类作为生物， 作为社会生物，作为政治生物， 所了解的一切都是 我们所忽视忘却的 气候条件的产物。 这就像是我们在另一颗 完全不同的星球上着陆一样， 那里有着完全不同的气候。 而我们现在需要思考 我们人类文明中的哪些 能忍受这种新的气候条件， 而哪些不能。 尤其以后的情况还会变得更糟。

03:09

Now for a very long time, we were told that climate change was a slow saga. It started with the industrial revolution, and it had fallen to us to clean up the mess left by our grandparents so our grandchildren wouldn't be dealing with the results. It was a story of centuries. In fact, half of all of the emissions that have ever been produced from the burning of fossil fuels in the entire history of humanity have been produced in just the last 30 years. That's since Al Gore published his first book on warming. It's since the UN established its IPCC climate change body. We've done more damage since then than in all the centuries, all the millennia before.

很长一段时间， 我们都被告知说 气候变化是很缓慢的。 它从工业革命时期就已经开始， 而我们这一代人 得去收拾我们祖辈所留下的残局， 以至于我们的后代 才不用继续处理这个乱局。 这是几个世纪共同造就的结果。 事实上，我们人类史上 所有因燃烧化石燃料 而产生的温室气体中 有一半都是 在过去三十年间所产生的。 那是在阿尔·戈尔（Al Gore）出版了 第一本关于气候变暖的书之后， 联合国政府间气候变化 专门委员会成立之后。 我们自那之后造成的破坏 比前几个世纪加起来还要多。

03:53

Now I'm 37 years old, which means my life contains this entire story. When I was born, the planet's climate seemed stable. Today, we are on the brink of catastrophe. The climate crisis is not the legacy of our ancestors. It is the work of a single generation. Ours.

我现在 37 岁， 我的人生涵盖了这整个过程。 当我出生时， 地球的气候看似还很稳定。 而如今， 我们却已被推向灾难的边缘了。 气候危机并不是我们祖先留下的。 它是由一代人所造成的。 我们所造成的。

04:20

This may all sound like bad news. Which it is, really bad news. But it also contains, I think, some good news, at least relatively speaking. These impacts are terrifyingly large. But they are also, I think, exhilarating. Because they are ultimately a reflection of how much power we have over the climate. If we get to those hellish scenarios, it will be because we have made them happen, because we have chosen to make them happen. Which means we can choose to make other scenarios happen, too.

这听上去可能都是些坏消息。 这些确实都是很不好的消息。 但我相信，这其中 也存在一些好消息， 至少相对而言是这样。 这些影响大到令人恐惧。 但我认为这同时也是令人振奋的。 因为它们最终所反映出的 是我们对气候的极大掌控力。 我们之所以会陷入 如今这地狱般的处境， 是因为我们让这些发生， 是因为我们选择让这些发生。 这意味着我们也可以选择 让其它的情况发生。

04:59

Now that may seem too rosy to believe and the political obstacles are in fact enormous. But it is a simple fact -- the main driver of global warming is human action: How much carbon we put into the atmosphere. Our hands are on those levers. And we can write the story of the planet's climate future ourselves. Not just can -- but are. Since inaction is a kind of action, we'll be writing that story ourselves whether we like it or not. This is not just any story, all of us holding the future of the planet in our hands. It's the kind of story we used to recognize only in mythology and theology. A single generation that has brought the future of humanity into doubt now tasked with securing a new future.

现在你们可能觉得 我这么说太乐观了， 现实存在的政治阻碍太多了。 但一个简单的事实是—— 导致全球变暖的 主要原因是人类活动： 我们往大气中排放了多少的碳。 我们的双手在撬动着这个杠杆。 我们也可以亲自书写 地球未来的气候情况。 不止是可以，我们现在也正在这么做。 毕竟不作为也是一种作为， 不管我们愿不愿意， 我们都将书写以后的故事。 这不只是什么普通的故事， 我们所有人都掌握着 这颗星球的未来。 我们过去只在神话或宗教故事中 听过这样的故事。 一代人 将人类的未来置于一种不利的处境， 而现在，他们肩负着 一个保障新未来的使命。

05:53

So what would that look like? It could mean solar arrays barnacling the planet, really everywhere you looked. It could mean if we developed better technology, we wouldn't even need to deploy them that broadly, because it's been estimated that just a sliver of the Sahara desert absorbs enough solar power to provide all the world's energy needs. But we'd probably need a new electric grid, one that doesn't lose two-thirds of its power to waste heat, as is today the case in the US. We could use some more nuclear power, perhaps, although it would have to be an entirely different kind of nuclear power, because today's technology simply isn't cost-competitive with renewable energy whose costs are falling so rapidly.

所以这看起来会是怎样的？ 那可能意味着太阳能电池 会充斥着整个星球， 目所能及的地方都是。 那可能意味着 如果我们的科技更进一步， 我们将甚至不用 那么大范围地部署它们， 因为据预测未来仅需撒哈拉沙漠 其中的一小块电池板 就能吸收足够多的太阳能 来满足全球的能源需求。 不过我们大概会需要一种新型电网， 不会有三分之二的能量 被转化为热能而浪费的电网， 现在美国所使用的电网就是这样的。 我们也许能更多地使用核能， 但那得是一种完全不一样的核能源， 因为现在的科技跟价格不断下降的 可再生能源相比 并不具备价格优势。

06:35

We'd need a new kind of plane, because I don't think it's particularly practical to ask the entire world to give up on air travel, especially as so much of the global South is, for the very first time, able to afford it. We need planes that won't produce carbon. We need a new kind of agriculture. Because we probably can't ask people to entirely give up on meat and go vegan, it would mean a new way of raising beef. Or perhaps an old way, since we already know that traditional pasturing practices can turn cattle farms from what are called carbon sources, which produce CO2, into carbon sinks, which absorb them. If you prefer a techno solution, maybe we can grow some of that mean in the lab. Probably, we could also feed some real cattle seaweed, because that cuts their methane emissions by as much as 95 or 99 percent.

我们需要一种新型的飞机， 因为我认为让全世界的人 都放弃乘飞机不太现实， 特别是现在很多欠发达国家的居民 刚开始能负担得起机票。 我们需要不会排放碳的飞机。 我们也需要一种新型的农业。 毕竟我们不太可能 让所有人放弃吃肉，转吃素， 我们需要一种新的饲养牛肉的方式。 或者是改用以前的方式， 因为传统的放牧方法 可以使牧牛场 从释放二氧化碳的碳源 转变为吸收碳的碳吸附井。 如果你偏好使用科技手段， 或许我们也能在实验室 生产一些肉制品。 也许我们还可以用海藻喂牛， 因为那样可以降低 95% 至 99% 的甲烷排放量。

07:23

Probably, we'd have to do all of these things, because as with every aspect of this puzzle, the problem is simply too vast and complicated to solve in any single silver-bullet way.

我们可能得做到 以上所有的这些事情， 因为毕竟这一大块拼图的 每一小块，即每一方面， 都是一个庞大且复杂的问题， 不可能一蹴而就。

07:35

And no matter how many solutions we deploy, we probably won't be able to decarbonize in time. That's the terrifying math that we face. We won't be able to beat climate change, only live with it and limit it. And that means we'd probably need some amount of what are called negative emissions, which take carbon out of the atmosphere as well. Billions of new trees, maybe trillions of new trees. And whole plantations of carbon-capture machines. Perhaps an industry twice or four times the size of today's oil and gas business to undo the damage that was done by those businesses in past decades.

而且不管我们最终 部署多少种解决方法， 我们大概都不能及时地降低碳排放量。 这是我们需要面对的可怕现实。 我们无法击败气候变化， 只能与它共存并限制它。 而那意味着我们可能还需要 一些所谓的负碳排放， 意思是从大气中吸收碳。 我们需要种数十亿棵的树， 也可能种数万亿棵新树才够。 我们需要摆满整个种植园、 能捕获碳的机器。 我们大概需要一个相当于 当今石油和天然气产业 两到四倍大的产业， 才能弥补这些产业在 过去数十年间所造成的破坏。

08:15

We would need a new kind of infrastructure, poured by a different kind of cement, because today, if cement were a country, it would be the world's third biggest emitter. And China is pouring as much cement every three years as the US poured in the entire 20th century. We would need to build seawalls and levees to protect those people living on the coast, many of whom are too poor to build them today, which is why it must mean an end to a narrowly nationalistic geopolitics that allows us to define the suffering of those living elsewhere in the world as insignificant, when we even acknowledge it.

我们将需要新型的基础设施， 倾倒一种新型的水泥， 因为当今， 如果把水泥看作一个国家的话， 那它现在能算是 世界上第三大的碳排放国。 中国每三年所倾倒的水泥总量 相当于美国在整个 二十世纪所倾倒的总量。 我们需要筑建海堤和防洪堤 来保护那些住在海滨的人们， 现在他们中的很多人 都没钱能筑建这些， 这也是为什么我们必须终结 狭隘的国家主义地缘政治， 因为那会让我们 将其他国家居民的苦难视为 是无关紧要的， 尽管我们知悉他们的苦难。

08:53

This better future won't be easy. But the only obstacles are human ones. That may not be much of a comfort, if you know what I know about human brutality and indifference, but I promise you, it is better than the alternative. Science isn't stopping us from taking action, and neither is technology. We have the tools we need today to begin. Of course, we also have the tools we need to end global poverty, epidemic disease and the abuse of women as well. Which is why more than new tools, we need a new politics, a way of overcoming all those human obstacles -- our culture, our economics, our status quo bias, our disinterest in taking seriously anything that really scares us. Our shortsightedness. Our sense of self-interest. And the selfishness of the world's rich and powerful who have the least incentive to change anything. Now, they will suffer too, but not as much as those with the least, who have done the least to produce warming and have benefited the least from the processes that have brought us to this crisis point but will be burdened most in the decades ahead. A new politics would make the matter of managing that burden, where it falls and how heavily, the top priority of our time.

这个更好的未来不会轻易到来。 唯一的阻碍是人类。 如果你们了解 我对人类的残暴与冷漠有多了解， 你们也不会感到多欣慰， 但我向你们保证， 这绝对比不作为要好。 科学不会阻挡我们采取行动， 科技也不会。 现在开始采取行动， 我们拥有所有需要用到的工具。 当然，我们也有终结全球贫困、 终结流行病传播， 和终结妇女虐待的方法。 这也是为什么除了新型工具， 我们还需要新型的政治， 我们需要克服所有 这些人为障碍—— 克服文化障碍、经济障碍、 克服现状偏见， 以及克服我们对 我们所恐惧之事的漠不关心。 克服目光短浅。 克服利己主义。 克服世界上富人与权贵的自私自利 因为他们是最不愿做出改变的。 但现在他们也将受苦， 但他们所受的苦 远不及那些一无所有的、 对全球变暖影响最小， 在那些导致我们走向 如今这一危机处境的行为中 获利最少 却会在未来数十年间 承受最多苦难负担的人。 这种新型的政治 能够减轻这种负担， 找到它源于何处， 这种负担有多重， 这是我们这个时代的头等大事。

10:18

No matter what we do, climate change will transform modern life. Some amount of warming is already baked in and is inevitable, which means probably some amount of additional suffering is, too. And even if we take dramatic action and avoid some of these truly terrifying worst-case scenarios, it would mean living on an entirely different planet. With a new politics, a new economics, a new relationship to technology and a new relationship to nature -- a whole new world. But a relatively livable one. Relatively prosperous. And green. Why not choose that one?

不管我们做什么， 气候变化都会转变当代生活。 有些气候变暖已经发生了， 而且无法避免， 这也意味着额外的苦难可能会降临。 就算我们迅速采取行动 以避免一些令人恐惧的 最坏情况的发生， 那将意味着我们得生活在 一个完全不同的星球上—— 采用一种新的政治，新的经济， 与科技建立一种新的关系， 与自然也建立一种新的联系—— 一个全新的世界。 但也是相对而言 更宜居的一个世界。 更繁荣， 更绿意盎然的世界。 为何不选择那样的世界？

11:05

Thank you.

谢谢。

11:06

(Applause)

（掌声）