听力课堂TED音频栏目主要包括TED演讲的音频MP3及中英双语文稿，供各位英语爱好者学习使用。本文主要内容为演讲MP3+双语文稿:印度如何才能完成世界上最不明朗的能源转型?，希望你会喜欢！

【演讲者及介绍】VarunSivaram

清洁能源主管、物理学家和作家Varun Sivaram说，印度面临着用清洁能源推动工业化的历史性机遇，而它的能源选择将决定世界对抗气候变化的成败。

【演讲主题】印度如何才能完成世界上最不明朗的能源转型?

How Indian could pull off the world's most ambiguous energy transition?

【中英文字幕】

翻译者TED Translators Admin校对者Yolanda Zhang

The air smelled smoky and sulfurous. I just stepped off a rickety train to Korba, deep in the Indian state of Chhattisgarh, and home to a dozen coal power plants and India's largest open-pit coal mine.

空气中弥漫着烟熏味和硫磺味。我走下了开往科尔巴的一趟摇摇晃晃的火车。科尔巴位于印度的恰蒂斯加尔邦深处，也是十几家煤炭发电厂的所在地，拥有印度最大的露天煤矿。

There it is, a literal hellscape, complete with infernal fires that burn 24/7. But, in Korba, coal is life. Most people I talked to accepted that the coal economy powers their livelihoods, but it is slowly killing them.

就是这里——眼前的景象让我不寒而栗，地狱般的大火从不熄灭，但在科尔巴，煤炭也意味着生命。和我交谈过的大多数人都承认，煤炭经济为他们提供了生计，但也让他们慢慢走向死亡。

Here's a community next door to a coal plant. They wake every morning to homes coated in a fresh layer of ash from the smoke that the plant belches. Korba is one of the most critically polluted places on the planet. And it's not just coal country that's hurting, all of India has a deadly addiction to fossil fuels. India's home to 22 of the world's 30 most polluted places on the planet. In Delhi, the capital, residents lose 9.4 years off their life expectancy on average. In 2020, the skies briefly cleared during the coronavirus lockdown, as cars stayed off the roads, factories shuttered and power plants ramped down. But the economic dislocation has put 400 million Indians at risk of falling deeper into poverty.

这是其中一座煤厂附近的一个社区，居民每天早上都是从煤厂喷出的一层新的烟雾覆盖的家中醒来。科尔巴是这个星球上污染最严重的地区之一。但除了煤炭，整个印度都严重依赖化石燃料。在世界上30个污染最严重的地区中，有22个位于印度。在首都德里，居民的寿命比平均值要低9.4年。2020年，为对抗冠状病毒实施的封城期间，人们迎来了短暂的蓝天——公路上汽车寥寥，工厂停止运转，发电厂的产能骤减，但是突然而来的经济低迷也让4亿印度人面临陷入进一步贫困的风险。

India should not have to sacrifice development for breathable air. There is a better way. For India has a historic opportunity to industrialize using clean energy. That opportunity is why I moved halfway around the world from the US to India to join ReNew Power, India's largest renewable energy company, as CTO. After two years of crisscrossing the country, I've seen green shoots everywhere, of a budding clean energy boom, daring me to hope that India can pull off the world's most important energy transition. Its choices will make or break the world's fight against climate change, for if India chooses fossil fuels to power its growing economy, its carbon emissions could explode, making it the world's number one emitter later this century.

印度不应该为了更新鲜的空气而牺牲经济发展。事实上，还有更好的办法——印度大可以抓住这次历史性的机会，利用清洁能源来实现工业化。正是这个机会，让我飞跃了半个地球，从美国来到印度，加入了ReNewPower这一印度最大的可再生能源公司，担任CTO。在全国实地考察了两年之后，我发现所到之处，清洁能源的热潮正在萌芽，让我有充分的信心去期待印度能够成功的完成世界上最重要的能源转型。它的选择将决定全世界对抗气候变化这一斗争的成败——如果印度选择用化石燃料推动其不断增长的经济，它的碳排放量可能会爆表，并在本世纪末成为世界头号排放国。

Still, for most Indians fossil fuels are a luxury. Most live in rural areas, and wood, cow dung and bioenergy sources account for two-thirds of household energy use. Just six percent of Indians own cars, and two percent have air conditioning. Indians will need far more energy to escape poverty and live modern, dignified lifestyles. By 2050 most will live in cities, and they'll want to drive to work and cool their homes. Along the way, India will become the world's most populous country, home to 1.6 billion people by mid-century. Its economy could multiply tenfold; its energy needs could quadruple.

然而，对于大多数印度人来说，化石燃料却是一种奢侈品，大多数印度人住在农村地区，木材、牛粪和生物能源占到了家庭能源使用量的2/3。只有6%的印度人拥有汽车，2%的人家里有空调。印度人将需要更多的能源以摆脱贫困，过上现代的、有尊严的生活方式。到2050年，大多数人将居住在城市，他们都会需要私家车和空调。同时，印度也将成为世界上人口最多的国家——到本世纪中叶，人口规模将达到16亿。它的经济规模可能达到现在的十倍，能源需求可能会翻两番。

Today, coal, oil and gas supply three-quarters of India's energy, producing electricity, fueling vehicles and powering India's factories. If, by 2050, India still gets the same proportion from fossil fuels, it'll be a disaster for everyone, not least local populations, vulnerable to pollution, climate change or rapacious new coal mining.

今天，煤、石油和天然气占据了印度3/4的能源供应——发电，为车辆提供燃料，并为印度的工厂提供电力支持。如果到了2050年，印度仍有同样的比例的能源来自化石燃料，这对每个人来说都将是一场灾难，尤其是当地居民，他们最容易受到空气污染、气候变化或是肆无忌惮的新煤矿开采的影响。

Instead, India can make renewable energy the beating heart of a reimagined economy by achieving three audacious goals all at the same time. It's a route no country in history has ever taken, but it is possible, and this moment demands it. First, India will need to build solar and wind power at an unprecedented scale and speed, replacing coal-fired power plants. Second, India will need to extend the reach of that renewable energy to power sectors of the economy like industry and transportation that haven't traditionally used electricity. And third, India must become radically more energy-efficient.

相反，印度可以通过同时实现三个大胆的目标，让可再生能源成为这一重构经济体系的核心。这是历史上任何一个国家都没有走过的道路,并且是有可能实现的，而此时此刻，这也是我们的必经之路。首先，印度需要以前所未有的规模和速度建设太阳能和风能设施，以取代燃煤发电厂。其次，印度需要将可再生能源的应用范围扩大到工业和交通等在传统上不使用电力的行业。第三，印度必须从根本上提高能源效率。

Here's my plan to achieve all three goals. First, India must build thousands of gigawatts of solar and wind power. To put this in context, it will be more than enough renewable energy to power all of America. Fortunately, India is blessed with abundant sunshine. In theory, you could supply all of its energy needs by tapping the sunlight that shines on less than 10 percent of India's wastelands. India also has substantial untapped wind potential on land and offshore. Wind and solar complement each other because the wind often blows harder when it's less sunny, like during the monsoon rains.

以上就是我实现这三个目标的计划。首先，印度必须建造数千吉瓦级别的太阳能和风能设施。为了方便大家理解，这一规模的可再生能源足够满足全美国的能源需求。幸运的是，印度还有得天独厚的日照条件。从理论上讲，不到10%的荒地面积上的日照就可以满足全印度的能源需求。印度的陆地和近海还拥有大量未开发的风能潜力。风能和太阳能相得益彰，因为当日照不足时，通常都会出现大风天气，比如在季风降雨期间。

Here's some even more exciting news: Wind and solar power are now cheaper than coal power, and it costs less to build a solar farm in India than anywhere else in the world. Batteries have also become dramatically cheaper, making it possible to store and deliver energy on demand. Thanks to falling costs, renewable energy has risen rapidly, but it will need to grow even more explosively through mid-century. This is the critical decade to invest in solar and wind power and avoid locking in new, long-lived coal power plants.

还有更令人兴奋的消息，风能和太阳能现在比煤电的成本还要低，而且在印度建一座太阳能发电场的成本比世界上任何地方都要更低。电池也变得越来越便宜，使得按需储存和输送能量成为了可能。由于成本下降，可再生能源得以迅速发展，但直至本世纪中叶，它还需要经历更大规模的爆炸式增长。这是投资太阳能和风能，并避免锁定新的耐久型燃煤电厂的关键十年。

India must also urgently expand its grid to deliver power for massive solar and wind plants in the sun-soaked deserts of Rajasthan or the windy coast of Gujarat, to energy-hungry cities like Mumbai. Not all renewables should be built at massive scale. Distributed solar, on the rooftops of warehouses or the outskirts of sprawling cities, can produce power close to where it's needed.

印度还必须扩建电网，将拉贾斯坦邦阳光充足的沙漠地区或古吉拉特邦多风的海岸地区的大型太阳能和风力发电厂提供的电力输送到孟买等能源需求旺盛的城市。不是所有的可再生能源都应该被大规模投入建设，仓库屋顶上的分布式太阳能设备或是不断扩张的城郊地区则可以就地供应能源。

Now, to be sure, nuclear and hydropower will be essential to energy transitions around the world. But India simply lacks the state capacity needed to build complex pricey projects at a breakneck pace, and all that push to build renewable wind and solar power best plays to India's strengths.

目前，可以肯定的是，核能和水力发电将对世界各地的能源转型产生至关重要的作用。但印度缺乏快速建造复杂而昂贵的工程所需的强大国力，这就要求所有建设可再生风能和太阳能的策略都能最大程度发挥印度的优势。

The second audacious goal is to use renewable energy across the economy, including in sectors like industry and transportation that don't use electricity today. As rising renewable energy makes the power grid cleaner, India should make all of its trains run on electricity and move more heavy freight from heavy trucks to rail. India's road vehicle fleet can also go electric.

第二个大胆的目标就是在整个经济体系中广泛部署可再生能源，包括工业和运输业等通常不使用电力的部门。随着可再生能源技术的进步，电网变得更加清洁，印度应该开始制造电力火车，把重型货物的运输途径从重型卡车转移到铁路。印度的公路车队也可以实现电动化。

Now, to be clear, we're mostly not talking about these electric vehicles, but these. Two- and three-wheelers make up more than 80 percent of India's vehicle fleet. To accelerate the adoption of electric scooters and rickshaws, India should build out charging stations and beef up local power grids to handle the influx of electricity demand.

在此我要澄清的是，我们讨论的不是这些电动汽车，而是这些。两轮和三轮车占印度车辆总数的80%以上。为了加速实现电动摩托和人力车的广泛部署，印度应该修建更多的充电站，强化当地电网，以满足不断攀升的电力需求。

Still, electrification won't work everywhere. It may not be possible to use electricity to power some heavy industrial processes in the fast-growing steel, cement, fertilizer and petrochemical sectors. Plants may need to add equipment to capture carbon emissions from burning fossil fuels.

不过，电气化并不是万灵药。在快速增长的钢铁、水泥、化肥和石化行业，很可能无法用电来为一些重工业过程提供动力。工厂可能需要增加设备来捕捉燃烧化石燃料产生的碳排放。

Another solution could be clean hydrogen. Surplus renewable electricity can run machines called electrolyzers that can split water into oxygen and green hydrogen fuel. That hydrogen can then power applications in transportation and industry, such as making steel or chemicals. Hydrogen can also act as a sort of battery, storing surplus wind and solar power to be used later.

另一种解决方案可能是清洁氢。过剩的可再生电力可以用来运行一种叫做“电解槽”的机器，能将水分解成氧气和绿色氢燃料，这些氢气则可以为运输和工业生产如炼钢或化工等各种领域提供动力。氢也可以作为一种电池，储存多余的风能和太阳能以备用。

Finally, the third goal is to radically improve energy efficiency. If there's any country in the world where efficiency is all-important, it's India. Even if India builds a massive supply of renewable energy and extends the reach of that energy by stitching together its economy, it won't be enough without energy efficiency. Because if India's voracious demand for energy rises too quickly, it'll have to fill the gap with polluting fossil fuels. Here's a crazy statistic: Just to power the insane demand for air conditioning, India will need to add 70 percent of the power system capacity of all of Europe today. And because much of India is hot and humid, air conditioning demand will peak during sweaty nights, making it tough for solar to power ACs. But far more efficient air conditioners could make it possible to power the aspirations of a rising middle class with renewable energy.

最后，第三个目标，就是从根本上提高能源效率。如果世界上有哪个国家对效率的需求最高，那就是印度。即使印度实现了充足的可再生能源供应，并通过整合其经济来扩大可再生能源的使用范围，但如果没有提高能源效率，也只是事倍功半。因为如果印度对能源的巨大需求增长过快，它将不得不用污染严重的化石燃料来填补缺口。这里有一个骇人的统计数字：只是为了满足对空调的疯狂需求，印度就需要增加相当于当今全欧洲70%的电力系统容量。也因为印度大部分地区的湿热气候，空调需求往往在闷热的夜晚会达到高峰，使得太阳能很难满足空调的电力需求。但更高效的空调可能会让不断壮大的中产阶级得以利用可再生能源来满足他们的需求。

India's big advantage is that it's largely a clean slate. An incredible 70 percent of India's infrastructure in 2030 hasn't been built yet. That presents a huge opportunity to enact stringent efficiency standards and design energy-efficient buildings and cities.

印度最大的优势就在于它可以从零开始。展望2030年，印度70%的基础设施都还没有建成。这就为制定严格的能效标准，以及设计节能建筑和城市提供了巨大的机会。

Still, there are warning signs that India's energy transition could sputter out. COVID-19 sharply slowed the building of new renewable energy plants. Even larger challenges loom.

然而，也有迹象表明，印度的能源转型可能会戛然而止。新冠疫情的突然爆发严重阻碍了新的可再生能源工厂的建造进度。甚至还有更大的挑战正在逼近。

First, India's electricity distribution utilities are mismanaged, economically fragile and forced by many states to subsidize power to farmers and residential customers. India needs reforms to more efficiently combat energy poverty while overhauling unprofitable utilities so they can pay for clean energy on time. Doing so will make it possible to raise trillions of dollars at home and abroad to finance India's clean energy transition.

首先，印度的配电设施管理不善，在财政上捉襟见肘，许多邦被迫向农民和居民提供用电补贴。印度需要通过改革来更有效的消除能源贫困，同时整顿入不敷出的公用事业，以按计划支付清洁能源的费用。这样将可能有助于在国内外筹集数万亿美元，为印度清洁能源转型提供资金。

Second, that transition will stall without new and improved technologies. Here's an economic opportunity for India to cultivate advanced clean energy industries. In the future, India should manufacture and export energy-efficient air conditioners, electric two- and three-wheelers and equipment to produce and use hydrogen. India's already strong in wind power manufacturing, and it could become a global leader in digital energy technologies. The international community can help here by funding innovation to make India's energy transition faster and more affordable. Countries like the United States should help fund public procurement of advanced air conditioners and partner to build projects on the ground in India that demonstrate critical technologies, such as long-duration energy storage and carbon capture.

其次，如果没有新的或改进的技术，这种转变也将停滞不前。这是印度发展先进清洁能源产业的一个难得的经济机会。在未来，印度应该制造和出口节能空调，电动两轮和三轮车，以及生产和使用氢能源的设备。印度在风力发电制造业方面已经具备很强的实力，而且很可能会成为一个数字能源技术领域的全球领导者。国际社会可以通过资助创新来帮助印度加快能源转型，降低成本。美国等国家应该协助为高档空调的公共采购提供资金，并与印度合作建设能够展示长期能源存储和碳捕获等关键技术的实地项目。

Finally, coal isn't going away without a fight. It's big business in India. Near Korba, India's coal capital, private companies are pushing ahead to expand coal mining, even deforesting an elephant preserve to dig out the coal underneath. I witnessed the destruction firsthand.

最后，对煤炭的需求不会轻易消失。这在印度是一门规模相当可观的生意。在印度煤都科尔巴附近，私营公司仍在努力扩大煤炭的开采规模，为了开采地下煤矿，不惜砍伐大象保护区的森林，我亲眼目睹了这种破坏。

But for every Korba there is a Kutch. In this wind-swept region of Gujarat, I gaped as construction crews hoisted 70-ton nacelles atop towers taller than a football field is long. The wind turbine blades are manufactured in India, and the electricity they'll go on to generate will help power economic growth.

但每一个像科尔巴这样的城市，都有一个标新立异的喀奇县。在古吉拉特邦这个狂风肆虐的地区，当建筑工人将70吨重的机舱悬吊于比足球场的长度还高的塔顶时，我简直惊呆了。它的风力涡轮机的叶片是在印度制造的，它们所产生的电力将有助于推动经济增长。

Renewable energy offers India a cleaner and more prosperous future than coal ever can. Unless we hasten the transition, air pollution and climate change will continue to ravage the country and endanger the planet. So, let's get to work.

可再生能源为印度提供了一个比煤炭更清洁、更繁荣的未来。除非我们加快这种转型，否则空气污染和气候变化将继续摧残这个国家，并危及地球的生态。那么，让我们开始行动吧！

Thank you.

谢谢。