听力课堂TED音频栏目主要包括TED演讲的音频MP3及中英双语文稿，供各位英语爱好者学习使用。本文主要内容为演讲MP3+双语文稿:气候正义联盟?让激进气候行动成为新常态，希望你会喜欢！

【主讲人】Al Gore
曾获诺贝尔和平奖，致力于解决全球气候危机。

【演讲主题】How to make radical climate action the new normal
净零排放的未来是可能的，人类凭借努力可以阻止气候危机。演讲人指出了阻碍我们进步的人为因素，并邀请所有人加入气候正义（Climate Justice）运动。在此基础上，他又讲述了当前人类面临的危机，以及可以帮助人们摆脱危机的方法。

【中英文稿】
So the climate crisis, in my way of thinking about it, is the most serious manifestation of an underlying collision between human civilization as we’ve presently organized it and the Earth's ecological systems. And the system most in jeopardy is the very thin shell of atmosphere surrounding our planet, because we're spewing 162 million tons of human-caused global warming pollution into it every single day, as if this is an open sewer. It's not an open sewer. It's so thin that if you could drive an automobile at autobahn speeds to the top of that blue shell, you'd reach it in about five minutes. And that's where all the greenhouse gases are. The accumulated amount, coming from the burning of fossil fuels primarily, CO2 -- fastest-growing source of methane is from fossil fuels as well, also, agriculture as you have heard -- the accumulated amount traps as much heat now as would be released by 600,000 Hiroshima-class atomic bombs exploding every day.
气候危机，以我的思考方式来说，是严重显现出我们现有的人类文明与地球生态系统潜在的冲突。系统中最危险的就是包围地球的稀薄大气层，因为我们每天喷出一亿六千二百万吨的暖化污染。我们把大气层当做下水道，但它不是开放式下水道。由于它太稀薄，如果以高速公路的行驶速度开车，就能在五分钟内抵达大气层的蓝色外壳，那是所有温室气体停留的地方。累积的气体总量主要来自石化燃料的二氧化碳，增加速度最快的甲烷来源也来自化石燃料，还有你们听过的农业，累积封阻的庞大热量等于 60 万颗广岛级的原子弹每天爆炸后释放的热量。

So the temperatures are going up at almost record levels every year. Last year was the hottest year in recorded history, according to NASA, and the scientists say it’s absolutely unequivocal that we are the cause of that. And we’re hearing Mother Nature and seeing the extreme events. The most anomalous extreme event since records began 200 years ago was in the Pacific Northwest of North America. Forty nine and a half degrees, 121 degrees Fahrenheit in British Columbia. In the tropics and subtropics, the combination of temperature and humidity is now making larger areas literally uninhabitable, the area so described is relatively small now, but if we continue over the next few decades, these areas are predicted to expand, and billions of people will be in areas where it is not safe to stay outside for more than a couple of hours.
地球的温度几乎每年达到创纪录的水平。太空总署报告，去年是有史最热的一年，科学家一致认为我们就是肇因。我们听到大自然，也看到极端事件，200 年来最反常的极端事件就发生在北美洲太平洋西北岸。英属哥伦比亚的温度高达摄氏 49.5 度或华氏 121 度。热带与亚热带地区，高温与湿度的组合，正在扩大不堪居住的地区。这些地区相对上算是小的，如果我们依然故我，未来几十年，这些地区就会扩大，几十亿的人口就无法安全地在户外几个小时。

Already, the climate refugees and migrants are four times more from the climate crisis than from all the wars and conflicts going on right now. And the respected “Lancet” commission has predicted as many as a billion climate refugees in this century. That's one of the reasons why we are seeing this wave of populist authoritarianism.
气候难民和移民，已经四倍于所有的战争和冲突造成的难民和移民人口。普受敬重的「柳叶刀」委员会，预测本世纪的气候难民将高达十亿。这是造成民粹威权主义兴风作浪的原因之一。

Sea level rise is also contributing, and of course, 93 percent of the extra heat is absorbed in the oceans, and the ocean temperatures are reaching record levels as well. And that means more water vapor comes off the oceans, and the warmer ocean temperature makes the cyclonic storms, like hurricanes and typhoons much stronger. Hurricane Ida struck the Gulf Coast as a category four, and as is so often the case, communities of color and poor people were disproportionately victimized. This storm continued on north and northeast across North America to New York, New Jersey and Pennsylvania, killed a lot of people and dropped rain bombs. And in New York City some basement apartments were flooded.
海平面的上升当然也是原因之一。地球增加的热量 93% 被海洋吸收，海洋温度也达到了历史新高，这意味着海洋会释放更多水蒸气。海洋温度增加造成的气旋风暴，例如飓风和台风更有威力，埃达飓风以四级威力重创墨西哥湾沿岸。另一个常见的情况是，有色人种与穷人小区以不对称的比例沦为受难者。风暴继续向北部和东北部挺进，跨越北美洲到纽约、纽泽西州和宾州，造成大量人口死亡。雨弹倾盆而下，大水淹没了纽约市一些公寓的地下室。

And I appreciate this family giving me the right to show this video.
感谢这个家庭提供影片的播放权

He's safe, the guy is screaming for his mother. He and his mother were both rescued by his brother, who punched a hole through the roof from the floor above.
他本人安全无恙。他在叫母亲。他们母子是哥哥救出来的。他从上面把屋顶打穿一个洞。

These rain bombs are becoming much more frequent and much more extreme. And actually the water coming off the oceans is held in much greater volumes by the warmer air. Atmospheric rivers are becoming larger. Here's one, from Hawaii in the lower left to Silicon Valley in the upper right, 2,300 kilometers. What was happening in Silicon Valley when this satellite picture was made? Well, that's what happens when these rain bombs drop, and the average atmospheric river now contains as much moisture as 25 Mississippi Rivers. They’re creating what you could call “atmospheric tsunamis” in some areas.
雨弹的频率和威力越来越大。这些来自海洋的水气因空气更温暖而增多。大气河流越来越大 这一条从左下角的夏威夷，一路延伸到右上角的硅谷，全长 2,300 公里。卫星照片显示，硅谷发生了什么事，这就是雨弹造成的实际情况。一般的大气河流吸收的水分，等于 25 条密西西比河那么多，它们在某些地区形成了所谓的「大气海啸」。

The downpours get much bigger and much more frequent, four times more frequent now than in 1980. One of them dropped on Germany and neighboring countries in July, killed more than 200 people. Look at the before and after. This is an example of what we're doing to our planet. Ten days ago, in part of Italy, there were 74 centimeters that fell in 12 hours, 29 inches of rain in 12 hours. One year ago, October 3rd, as much rain fell here in the UK as there is water in Loch Ness. And as a result, the insurance industry is now seeing record recoveries, and those recoveries I showed you from last year may get a tiny bit larger, depending on the outcome of this lawsuit. The owners and operators of this giant replica of Noah's Ark have sued their insurance company for a million dollars in flood damages. Hard to make some of this stuff up.
倾盆的雨势威力更大，也更加频繁，达到了 1980 年的四倍。今年七月在德国和邻国的一场暴雨，造成 200 多人死亡。这是暴雨前后的对照。这个例子说明了我们对地球的破坏。十天前，意大利的部分地区 12 小时内下了 74 毫米的雨量，等于 12 小时内 29 吋的降雨量。一年前的 10 月 3 日，整个英国地区的降雨量相当于一座尼斯湖的水量，结果是保险业的灾害赔偿创下了历史纪录。这些是去年的灾害赔偿，也许会因为法律诉讼的结果而有微增加的情形。这艘巨无霸诺亚方舟复制品的所有人和经营者向保险公司提告，要求一百万美元的水灾赔偿，这种事很难编造出来。

The same extra heat is pulling the moisture out of the first meter of the soil, creating the worst droughts in memory. 93 percent of the American West is in drought now, 100 percent of California, half of California is in the most extreme form of drought, and the same heat is also draining the reservoirs, evaporating the reservoirs. Lake Mead is down to levels not seen since they started filling it in the 1930s. In Brazil, the same thing is happening. In Eastern Europe, the Czech Republic has been going through the worst drought in at least 500 years. And in the southern cone of Africa, 100 million people are experiencing food insecurity primarily because of the extended droughts.
大气中多余的热量也吸收了表土一公尺内的水分，造成了记忆中最严重的干旱。美国西部有 93% 的地区正进入干旱期，加州 100% 的地区，一半的地区正面临极端的干旱。同样的热量也把水库吸干，把蓄水蒸发一空。米德湖的水位下降到 1930 年代以来的最低点。巴西也上演着同样的灾情。东欧的捷克共和国 正经历 500 年来最严重的旱灾，非洲南端有一亿人口正经历粮荒 主要原因是长期肆虐的旱灾。

And when the temperatures go up, the fires get a lot worse and the worst fires in California and western US history have been in the last two years. Also in Siberia, in Australia, in southern Europe. It doesn’t have to ruin your golf game. And this is a serious point, because we can't let these conditions become the new normal. It's not fine. And this is an example of why it's not fine. A lightning strike hitting a natural gas leak in the middle of the Gulf of Mexico. Lightning gets more common with the climate crisis. We're relying on dead plants and animals, leaving their residue in the atmosphere to threaten the species that are still alive, and 50 percent of them are in danger of extinction in this century. And as we push into previously wild areas of the world, we encounter millions of new viruses that we have not dealt with in the past. Five new infectious diseases every year, emerging, three quarters of them from animals, like the COVID-19 pandemic. Which raises some of the same questions that are raised by the climate crisis. When the world’s leading scientists are setting their hair on fire to get our attention, should we listen to them? Check. Can our interconnected global civilization suddenly be turned upside down? Check. Are the poor and marginalized populations of the world the most affected? Check. Can science and technology give us nearly miraculous solutions in record time? Check. Will we deploy those solutions in time? That is the question.
随着温度的上升，燎原的野火此起彼落。加州的森林大火是美国西部史两年来最严重的一次。同样的火灾也发生在西伯利亚、澳洲和南欧。也许还不至于破坏你的高尔夫球赛，这是一个严峻的问题。因为我们不能让这些情况变成新的常态。这不是好现象。这个例子说明了它不好的原因，一道雷击中墨西哥湾中间，一个有天然气外泄的水域。随着气候危机的恶化，闪电越来越常见。我们依赖死亡的动、植物留在大气里的残骸，威胁其他仍然活着的物种。本世纪有 50% 的物种濒临绝种。随着人类不断地往荒野地区推进，出现了数百万种前所未见的新病毒，平均每年出现五种新传染病。其中的四分之三来自动物。就像 COVID-19 疫情一样，这引发了与气候危机相同的问题。世界顶尖的科学家们挖空心思地想引起我们的关注，我们应该倾听吗？应该。我们休戚与共的全球文明会突然发生翻天覆地的变化吗？会。世界的贫困与边缘人口是影响最严重的族群吗？是。科技有能力带给我们几近于奇迹的解决方案吗？有。我们会及时部署这些解决方案吗？这就是问题所在了。

We have inequitable vaccine distribution in the world, and it threatens everyone in the world. We also have solutions to the climate crisis, but they're not equitably distributed. Worldwide, 90 percent of all of the new electricity generation installed last year was renewables. Almost all of it from solar and wind. Just one year before the Paris Agreement, solar and wind electricity was cheaper than fossil electricity in only one percent of the world. Five years later, two thirds of the world. Three years from now, it will be the cheapest source in 100 percent of the world. Coal is not getting cheaper. Gas is not getting cheaper. Nuclear has been getting more expensive. Wind is cheaper than all three, and solar is continuing to plummet in cost and is the cheapest of all now because the cost of making the solar panels and the windmills continues to come down. By the way, the famous coal museum in Kentucky just installed solar panels on its roof in order to save in its operating budget.
世界各地疫苗分配不均的问题威胁着全世界的每一个人。我们也有解决气候危机的方案，但解决方案的分布却不公平。全世界去年安装的新电能厂，有 90% 的比例是再生能源，几乎全部来自太阳能和风能。《巴黎协议》签署的前一年，比化石电力便宜太阳能和风能，仅占全世界的百分之一。五年后，占世界的三分之二。三年后会成为全世界最便宜的能源。煤炭并没有因此更加便宜，天然气没有更加便宜，核电越来越昂贵，风电比这三种都便宜。太阳能的成本持续下降，是目前最便宜的一种。因为制造太阳能板和风车的成本持续地下降。顺便一提，肯州的煤炭博物馆为了节省营运预算，刚完成屋顶太阳能板的安装。

Now we're getting battery storage. I’ll rescale this graph to show you the predicted emergence of a new one-trillion-dollar industry in the next few decades and green hydrogen on top of that. The car batteries are getting cheaper as demand continues to increase. And within less than two years in some model categories, the EVs will be cheaper than their internal combustion engine counterparts and within four years in all model categories.
目前正在进行的电池储能，我用调整后的图表展示预测的紧急状况。这是未来几十年内， 营利高达一兆美元的新兴行业，还有附带而来的绿氢，车用电池随着需求的增加，越来越便宜。不到两年的时间内，某些电动车型号会比内燃机引擎汽车更便宜，四年内会成为最便宜的汽车。

So, the oil and gas industry has been the worst investment in global markets for more than a decade, while the clean energy companies are really becoming more profitable. Now the oil and gas companies say that they're going to invest a lot more in renewables and CCS. Yes, it’s the fastest-growing -- they’ve tripled their investments all the way up to four percent. Ninety-six percent of the money they’re spending is still going into oil and gas and coal.
十年多来的石油和天然气业，始终是全球市场最不利的一项投资。干净能源公司反而更有利可图。石油和天然气公司说，他们要把更多投资注入再生能源和碳捕集与封存上。是的，它的成长速度最快，他们的投资增加了两倍，达到百分之四的比例。他们仍把 96% 的花费用在石油、天然气和煤炭上。

The impression they've given us is not an honest impression, not for the first time. And they're telling a different story to Wall Street. They still have planes, trains, a few automobiles and ships, but they're telling Wall Street and financial markets they're going to make it up in plastics, which is 75 percent of their third-largest market, petrochemicals. How's that working out for us? Not so well. Banning single-use plastics is one of the many things that we have to do.
他们给我们不诚实的印象。这并非初犯。他们提供给华尔街一套不同的说词，他们还有飞机、火车、汽车和轮船。但却对华尔街和金融市场说，他们要用第三大油化市场 75% 的塑料业来弥补，这会对我们有什么影响？恐怕并不乐观。禁用一次性塑料产品是百废待举的项目之一。

We have to shift to sustainability. And here's the good news, the sustainability revolution is the single biggest business opportunity in the history of the world. It has the scale of the industrial revolution coupled with the speed of the digital revolution. And what we're seeing is that we have to seize this opportunity, but we need reforms in the current version of capitalism.
我们必须转移到永续的发展。好消息是，永续性革命是世界史上最大的单一商机。它具有工业革命的规模，并结合了数字革命的速度。呈现在我们眼前的是我们必须把握这个机会，我们需要改革现行的资本主义。

Capitalism does a lot of things great. It balances supply and demand and allocates resources efficiently and often unlocks a higher fraction of the human potential. And by the way, the alternatives on the left and right explored in the 20th century didn't work out very well. But in order to see how we need to change capitalism, we have to pull out our focus. And let me present an analogy. The electromagnetic spectrum from the long radio waves to the short gamma rays and all the things in between, the portion of visible light that we can see with our eyes makes up only 0.1 percent of the total. For the eight years I worked in the White House, I got a daily report from the intelligence community that collected from all parts of the spectrum, and it was a much more accurate picture. Here's the analogy. The value spectrum is something we too frequently look at through the very narrow aperture of short-term profits for one stakeholder, the shareholders. But this leaves out negative externalities, as the economists call them, like the pollution. That's why we need a price on carbon and a price on plastic pollution. It also leaves out positive externalities. So we’re chronically underinvesting in education and health care and environmental protection, pandemic preparedness. We're ignoring the depletion of resources like topsoil and underground water aquifers. And we’re ignoring the distribution of incomes and net worths to the point where one percent of the people have almost half of the world's wealth. That's one of the other factors that's driving populist authoritarianism. We have to take account of the environmental effects and the effects on people and their families and the communities where they live and the communities in their supply chain and the ethics in the C-suites. And we have to realize that hyper inequality is a threat to both capitalism and to democracy.
资本主义有它伟大的贡献。它促成了供求的平衡，有效地进行资源的分配，也经常开启人类大量的潜能。顺便一提的是左右两派，在 20 世纪轮流施政，并没有产生良好的效果。但要看见改变资本主义的需要，我们必须把焦点拉出来。让我打个比喻吧，长无线电波到短伽玛射线的电磁频谱，以及介于其中的所有东西，肉眼能看到的可见光部分，只占总数的 0.1%。我在白宫工作的八年期间，每天都收到情报界从频谱各部分收集到的报告。这是一张比较准确的照片，这是它的模拟。价值范围是我们经常透过太过狭窄的短期利益光圈，为一个利害关系人或股东看到的东西。但它遗漏了负外部性，正如经济学家说的像污染一样。这就是要为碳和塑料污染定价的原因，它也遗漏正外部性。我们在教育、医疗保健、环保和疫情准备上长期投资不足，我们忽略了资源的耗尽问题，例如表土和地下含水层，忽略了收入和净资产的分配，以至于有 1% 的人拥有世界近半数的财富。这是驱动民粹威权主义的因素之一。我们必须考虑环境的影响，以及对个人和家庭的影响，以及他们居住的小区、供应链中的小区以及高管理阶层的伦理，我们必须体认那种极度的不平等是对资本主义和民主的威胁。

There is an emergent form called multistakeholder capitalism, and it is driving a lot of new decisions. For example, in asset management, almost half of all the assets in the world under management are now in portfolios committed to net-zero. One reason is that the Paris Agreement set the direction of travel, where every country in the world committed to net-zero.
多利害关系人资本主义的突现形式正在推动许多新的决策。例如，在资产管理、投资组织者界中，有一半的资产致力于净零目标。原因之一是《巴黎协议》设定的方向，让全世界每一个国家都致力于净零。

So just last May, the G7 nations banned financing of coal plants overseas. And just three weeks ago, China did, which is good, because they were financing most of them. I hope that they will cut down on the coal chain in China domestically as well. And now more than half of all the greenhouse gas emissions and two thirds of global GDP is coming from countries that have set net-zero targets.
去年的五月，G7 国禁止对海外煤电厂融资。中国在三星期前做到了，这是好事一桩。因为他们融资给大部分的煤电厂，我希望他们也会缩减国内煤炭链的融资。如今，有一半以上的温室气体排放和全球 GDP 的 2/3 来自设定净零目标的国家。

So here's the hope. Once we reach net-zero, then with a lag time of as little as three to five years, the temperatures in the world will stop going up. And once we reach net-zero within as little as 25 to 30 years, half of the human-caused CO2 will fall out of the atmosphere.
这就是我们的希望。一旦达到净零目标，只要 3-5 年的延迟时间，世界的温度就会停止上升。达到净零目标后的 25-30 年内，半数人为产生的二氧化碳就会脱离大气层。

It is as if we have a switch that we can flip in order to stop the climate crisis. Regrettably, some damage has been done, but we can stop the temperatures from going up and start the healing process. But we all have to flip this switch known as reaching net-zero.
这就像手上握了一个开关，只要按个钮就能停止气候危机。遗憾的是，损害已经造成了，但我们有能力停止温度的上升，并启动愈合的过程。但我们必须按下这个叫做净零的开关。

The young people are telling us that we have to, and they're marching in every country in the world. And what's the response? As recently as this morning we heard, "Well, it may be impossible." Well, it's not impossible. Nelson Mandela said, “It always seems impossible until it’s done.” That's what they told the abolitionists. "It's impossible to eliminate slavery." That's what they told the women's suffragettes. "It's impossible to have equal rights for women." In the civil rights movement in my country and the anti-apartheid movement in South Africa and more recently, the lesbian and gay liberation and equal rights movement.
年轻人告诉我们必须这么做，他们正在世界各国游行，我们的响应是什么？ 今天早上我们才听说 「这也许不可能。」 不是不可能。曼德拉说：「坐而不行一事无成。」 他们对废奴主义者也这么说 「废奴是不可能的。」 也对妇女参政权这么说 「妇女平权是不可能的。」 美国的民权运动，南非的反种族隔离运动，以及近期的男女同性恋解放运动，与平权运动。

We can do this. This is the biggest emergent social movement in all of history. We can do this. And if anybody thinks that we don't have the political will, remember, political will is itself a renewable resource.
我们做得到。这是史上最大规模的社会紧急运动。我们做得到。如果有人怀疑我们的政治决心。切记，政治决心本身就是一种再生资源。

Thank you very much.
非常感谢你们。

Thank you.
谢谢大家。